Trump and the teals have a lot in common

Donald Trump is destroying the system. Which system? The system of US government, developed over centuries, with its conventions and delivery mechanisms. The system of global relations based around a (relatively) stable hegemonic power which backs its allies. The economic web that maintains global commerce.

Our independents and minor parties are like Donald Trump, allowing voters a way to genuinely challenge the status quo. Credit: Joe Benke

Every few days, another shock to another system. Last weekend, Mahmoud Khalil, a pro-Palestinian protest leader, was detained by immigration authorities despite being a permanent resident married to an American citizen – for protesting, it seems. Last week, we learned that the Environmental Protection Agency may change its 2009 determination that greenhouse gases are dangerous and therefore can be regulated. That decision was hugely consequential, permitting rules about cars and power plants. Without it, America’s domestic approach to climate change will drastically shift. And already, the New York Times told us on Saturday, children have begun dying as a result of cuts to US aid.

As a whole, this is disastrous, and most people in Australia – according to polls – seem to see it as disastrous. At its broadest level, though, this is what many voters wanted: the destruction of a system they felt was not serving them.

Is this the destruction they were hoping for? Large chunks of the system which were serving them well are being torn down, while bits that were serving them poorly are being left in place. How quickly that becomes apparent to most voters, and how much they are willing to put up with for how long – and how much that matters in the face of Trump’s determination – we can’t know.

Australia has some of the same problems that helped elect Trump. People have less trust in government than they did. Inequality is becoming enragingly obvious. Our living standards have fallen. Our major politicians seem not to inhabit the same country as the rest of us. There is certainly some appetite for, let’s say, creative destruction.

But Australia – perhaps because we’ve never had a revolution – seems, in its character, less revolutionary than America. We have compulsory voting, which seems to keep things tamer. Crucially, we have an electoral system that, courtesy of preferences, allows us to indicate dissatisfaction with one major party without entirely endorsing the other major party.

There has been much focus on whether Peter Dutton is our Trump figure. But it is possible this obscures the possibility that, in Australian political terms, our independents and minor parties are the real Trump.Credit: AP

In recent weeks, there have been two elections – the Werribee byelection in Victoria, and the West Australian state election – in which Labor suffered huge swings against it. In both cases, only a handful of those votes went to the Liberals. Columnist James Campbell, observing this trend, pointed out this happened in a Queensland byelection last year, too. In all three, Labor won.

Peter Dutton should be terrified this will happen federally in May.

But really these are just the latest, specific examples of a broad trend that has been developing, in zigs and zags, for decades, and which should worry Anthony Albanese just as much. As the years passed, our major parties lost votes without them going to the other.

The appeal of the teals depends on them not being part of the system. Could the majors be swamped by a teal wave?Credit: Dionne Gain

Writer Tom Hazeldine has pointed out that in last year’s UK election, both Labour and the Tories lost votes. In Australia, a similar thing happened in 2022: both Labor and the Coalition lost vote share. So you could present this as a global trend, which Australian politicians can’t do much about. Until you realise those elections had something else in common too: both featured a tired, incompetent government facing an uninspiring, small-target opposition.

We are about to go into the second election in a row in which – if nothing changes – two small-target leaders meet each other. Should either expect their vote to grow significantly?

In recent weeks, there has been much focus on whether Dutton is our Trump figure. But it is possible this obscures the possibility that, in Australian political terms, our independents and minor parties are the real Trump, allowing voters a way to genuinely challenge the status quo. In this context, the rapid rise of the teals is perhaps most interesting. Not because they are anything like Trump in temperament or policy, but because their appeal to Australians depends on not being part of the system. They are a very different proposition from Trump – but then in many ways Australia is a very different place. A more moderate place, in which extremes rarely triumph.

One of last week’s most striking stories appeared in the Australian Financial Review. Reportedly, the Australian Hotels Association and their corporate partners – gambling being one of their major concerns – will throw their support behind major party candidates running against independents. Coal Australia seems to be pursuing a similar approach. Could the independents have designed a better ad for themselves? Unsurprisingly, some teals have been pointing to the story publicly.

As commentators like Tim Dunlop have pointed out, the appeal of the independents does not lie only in what they oppose: they have policies, and to some they offer the attraction of local community and “a different way of doing politics”. Still, difference remains key: and what they are most obviously different from is the major parties.

It is a little shocking to think that, if a cyclone had not come along, we might already be in an election campaign. All you’ve seen, from both Labor and the Coalition, all there is: a three-year term, already over. Still, if the crossbench vote rises, it will not only be a consequence of this term – just as if it falls, the major parties should not take false comfort. The trend has been going on a long time and is unlikely to end at this election.

It is possible Australian voters want the major parties to be different. But it is possible, too, that the major parties can’t do much. That voters simply want the system to be different, and recognise the major parties as established aspects of that system. And that, rather than tearing it down all at once, American-style, they have instead set about to change it: gradually, unceremoniously, undramatically, in a very Australian way.

Sean Kelly is author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, a regular columnist and a former adviser to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.

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