The Voice campaign figures who had the most influence on voters

Leading opponents of the Indigenous Voice gained more influence than their Yes campaign rivals in the final phase of the referendum, highlighting the powerful role of key figures in the contest for hearts and minds on constitutional change.

No campaigners including senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Nyunggai Warren Mundine were some of the most persuasive players in the public debate, seen positively by 26 per cent and 22 per cent of Australians respectively and holding more appeal among voters than many on the Yes side.

Key figures in the Voice debate (from left) Noel Pearson, Linda Burney, Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Nyunggai Warren Mundine.Credit: Fairfax

While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had a positive rating of 35 per cent in an exclusive survey leading up to Saturday’s referendum – at which 60 per cent of Australians and clear majorities in all states rejected the Voice – other key figures in the Yes campaign had not gained similar influence.

The survey found No campaign group Fair Australia had a positive rating of 15 per cent and a negative rating of 6 per cent, giving it a net “likeability” among voters of 9 per cent.

The survey, conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, found Yes campaign group Yes23 had a positive rating of 15 per cent and a negative rating of 18 per cent, giving it a negative net “likeability” result of minus 3 per cent.

Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney, a key figure over years of debate on the best way to recognise First Australians in the Constitution, was regarded positively by 13 per cent of voters but negatively by 17 per cent, resulting in a negative net rating.

Resolve director Jim Reed said voter support for Albanese had slipped in line with backing for the Voice over the course of the year, resulting in a net likeability rating of just 2 per cent because his positive rating of 35 per cent was offset by a negative rating of 33 per cent.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton had a net rating of minus 13 per cent in the survey in the weeks before voting day on October 14 because his positive rating of 23 per cent was offset by a negative rating of 36 per cent.

“The political leaders campaigning on either side of the debate are already well-known, of course, and a prejudice to like the prime minister may well have worked in the Yes campaign’s favour early on,” Reed said.

“However, it seems that the criticisms of distraction and competence have taken a toll on him instead. Albanese is now quite a neutral figure in the eyes of voters.”

Some of the politicians on the No side were seen as the least likeable of the debate, with voters giving One Nation leader Pauline Hanson a net negative rating of 21 per cent and independent Victorian senator Lidia Thorpe a net negative rating of 23 per cent.

Cape York Indigenous leader Noel Pearson, a central figure in the drafting of the Uluru Statement from the Heart that led to the Voice proposal, had a positive rating of 11 per cent and a negative rating of 13 per cent.

Uluru Dialogue leader Megan Davis, another leading advocate for the constitutional change, had a positive rating of 5 per cent and a negative rating of 7 per cent.

The campaign spokesman for Yes23, Dean Parkin, had a positive rating of 5 per cent and a negative rating of 5 per cent, but three-quarters of respondents did not know of him.

Another key spokesman for Yes23, Thomas Mayo, had a positive rating of 5 per cent and a negative rating of 10 per cent, with 69 per cent of voters unfamiliar with him. Mayo was targeted by the No camp on social media for comments he had made in the past about the “pay the rent” concept that became part of a scare campaign against the Voice.

“Most of the Yes and No campaign figures we tested will have been new faces to Australians, so their recognition and opinion of them is born of the campaign,” Reed said.

“Many Australians fail to recognise the names we put to them, and many more rated them neutrally, which will reflect the general disengagement we’ve had in this debate.

“All the Yes campaign figures we tested – notably Parkin, Davis, Mayo, even Pearson – were unknown to a majority and rated neutrally as a result. In contrast, most know of Price and both she and Mundine had positive ratings.

“Clearly, the smaller number of No advocates using a tighter message set worked to gain greater cut-through.”

Labor increased its primary vote from 36 per cent in September to 37 per cent in October and the Coalition tumbled from 34 to 31 per cent, according to the Resolve Political Monitor figures released last Monday.

Asked to nominate their preferred prime minister, 47 per cent named Albanese and only 25 per cent favoured Dutton, compared to a narrower gap of 43 to 28 per cent one month earlier.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 4728 eligible voters, three times the respondent base for standard monthly surveys, to find that 56 per cent of voters were against the Voice and 44 per cent were in favour. The results have a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points.

The questions on campaign leaders were put to a subset of 3116 voters over the polling period from September 22 to October 4, while the questions on Albanese and Dutton were put to the full group of 4728.

Reed said the outcome showed a recovery for Dutton and the Coalition this year.

“Dutton’s ratings have improved since he announced the Liberals’ opposition to the Voice after the Aston byelection, though he still trails Albanese as preferred prime minister,” he said.

“Logically, this is about him representing the views of what is now a majority, with that alignment pulling his and the Liberals’ more modest fortunes up by their bootstraps.”

The findings also highlighted the growing influence of social media in Australian elections, with 15 per cent of respondents naming social media platforms such as Facebook, TikTok, Instagram and X (previously Twitter) as a source of information on the referendum.

The biggest source of information was free-to-air television, named by 27 per cent of voters, while newspapers in print and online were used by 13 per cent.

Another 10 per cent named radio and only 5 per cent nominated pay television such as Sky News.

While social media and mainstream media were important, 22 per cent of voters named friends and family as sources of information about the Voice, while 20 per cent said they drew on advertisements from the No and Yes campaigns along with leaflets or contact with volunteers.

The question asked voters about the sources of information that most helped them make up their minds on the Voice. They were given the option to tick up to three choices.

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