The nuclear debate that blew apart the Coalition

The radioactive debate over nuclear energy is at the core of the Coalition meltdown that ended with the Nationals splitting from the Liberals for the first time since 1987, as the parties failed to resolve if they would stick to the pledge to reach net zero emissions.

The Albanese government won the recent election, billed by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as a referendum on energy policy, with its bold renewables plan.

David Littleproud is walking away from the Liberals.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

But Nationals leader David Littleproud on Tuesday issued an internal ultimatum to his Coalition partners on the future of nuclear energy.

Littleproud demanded that Liberal leader Sussan Ley guarantee the Coalition would commit to lifting the national ban on nuclear energy imposed by the Howard government in 1999.

This was one of five demands: four public and one private. The three other public demands were uncontroversial rural policies that the Coalition took to the recent election: a $20 billion rural infrastructure fund, new divestiture laws to break up supermarket chains and a universal service obligation for Telstra to boost rural and regional telecommunications coverage.

His private demand, which was confirmed by Ley in her press conference, was that Nationals shadow ministers be granted the right to vote against the policy positions adopted by the shadow cabinet.

A free vote for shadow ministers would break a decades-old, iron-clad rule that forced solidarity among the Coalition’s most senior MPs.

This would enable the Nationals to oppose Australia’s legislated commitment to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as well as any interim targets that the Albanese government may seek to make law – it is forming an updated emissions reduction goal for 2035 before the next round of UN climate talks next year.

That would represent a major departure from the Coalition’s previous platform, given the former Morrison government and Dutton opposition committed at the 2022 and 2025 elections, respectively, to reach net zero by 2050.

While the Liberal Party has not decided if it will ditch its commitment to nuclear energy, the Nationals are insistent it must remain in some form. Littleproud claims credit for forming the Coalition’s nuclear policy at the past election, dubbed a “coal-to-nuclear plan” that could have extended the life of the fossil fuel generators for decades while plants were built.

This policy echoes the Coalition’s crisis of 2018 when Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull was forced to ditch his plan to set an emissions reduction target and instead form a National Energy Guarantee to invest in new projects.

“I’m not afraid to say the c-word: coal, coal, coal is going to be one of the areas we invest in,” Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie said at the time.

Ley said the Liberals must take time to reconsider how to remake its policies to reconnect to voters, who have abandoned the party in all but a handful of urban electorates.

Faced with a choice of prioritising this commitment to her party or preserving the Coalition, Ley opted for the former – an unsurprising move given she defeated rival Angus Taylor by a razor-thin margin to lead her party.

The nuclear fallout, Ley said, is forcing her to lead the Liberals away from the right-wing politics of former leader Peter Dutton and back to the centre.

“The Liberal Party must respect modern Australia … Australians sent us a clear message at the last election and we are listening,” she said.

Last week in her first address to the media, Ley vowed that “there won’t be a climate war” and stated that Australia must reduce its greenhouse emissions.

This shift will likely include continued support for net zero, and less criticism of Labor’s “reckless race to renewables”.

Littleproud on Tuesday repeated his argument that nuclear energy was not unpopular and renewables were tearing rural Australia apart.

Nationals MPs suddenly find themselves in a federal political movement with just 19 members, while on Monday they were part of a 69-member Coalition.

This means more influence among the smaller crowd from outspoken MPs Barnaby Joyce and Matt Canavan, who continue to campaign loudly for fossil fuels and against net zero.

In Joyce’s case, opposing the policy he supported as deputy prime minister at the 2022 election. In Canavan’s case, saying last week after his failed Nationals leadership challenge: “Net zero is mortally wounded, so mission accomplished”.

History suggests the Nationals will find it difficult to skip the right-hand turn and veer left with the Liberals at this fork in the road.

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