The blaring warning for Albanese that Morrison ignored until he lost

Labor should not ignore the Gaza issue roiling in some of its key heartland seats, and the reason why is staring them in the face.

We only have to look back to 2022 when, for years leading up to the federal election, the Coalition stumbled from misstep to mishap over climate, integrity and the treatment of women.

Scott Morrison’s Liberals did not deal with the teal threat. Now Anthony Albanese has to avoid a similar fate for some of his MPs.Credit: James Brickwood/Alex Ellinghausen

It was not everywhere. It was not in every seat. It was not every MP. But on election day, it hurt the Liberals in seats they never expected to lose. And crucially, it happened extremely quickly.

This is the lesson Labor and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese must consider as they deal with the loss of West Australian first-term senator, Fatima Payman, and grapple with an extended cost-of-living crisis with seemingly no end in sight.

Payman’s decision to quit the party over Labor’s position on the war in Gaza shocked Canberra not just because she dared to go against the way the party has always done things, but because she was prepared to take a personal hit to stand up for what she believes in. It’s unusual in those parts.

The cause she stood up for has taken root in some key Labor areas. It is not a niche issue for a particular cohort of voters. She wants stronger action to support Palestinians in Gaza, and Labor has so far only been able to cautiously step forward with statements.

Outside the Canberra triangle (Parliament House, drinks with lobby groups, and shared taxis to the airport) there is boiling community anger about Australia’s position on Palestine, and the Gaza war.

Again, it is not everywhere. It is not in every seat. But importantly for Labor – and just as it happened for Liberals in 2022 – it is happening in seats they would normally take for granted.

Some political insiders believe Wills MP Peter Khalil is as good as gone. His inner-city Melbourne electorate, which was once held by Bob Hawke, has split between the Green-voting south and the more Muslim north. Now both ends want him out because of Labor’s position on Palestine.

Bruce MP Julian Hill is running against Zahid Safi, an Afghan-Australian Muslim refugee already preselected for the Liberal Party in what is one of the most diverse seats in the country. Hill’s vote was already declining in 2022, but Labor’s response to the Israel-Hamas war has likely made things worse.

Senator Fatima Payman quit the Labor Party on Thursday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

In Western Sydney, can senior ministers like Chris Bowen, Tony Burke and Jason Clare really rely on their strong personal votes staying strong? There are still some big Labor margins in those seats, yes. But there were big Liberal margins in 2022, and those seats are now teal.

Part of the problem the Liberals faced in 2022 was the triple whammy: stories about the Coalition splitting over coal, the Liberal Party’s views on women, or jobs for Liberal mates were constant. Voters felt that there was always something.

For Labor, the cost-of-living pressures, a failure to prove themselves as meaningfully different from the other lot, and their stance on Gaza have meant the grind never ends.

If the best Labor MPs can muster up is platitudes about a two-state solution – something that seems further away than ever – they should consider what happened to their former colleagues whose words didn’t match up with their party’s actions: Josh Frydenberg tried to walk the line on climate change. Trent Zimmerman stood up for trans kids. Tim Wilson was the Bayside progressive. All were mercilessly punted the minute voters were given a chance to do so.

Labor still has time to turn it around, and the next election will not be won or lost on a single issue. But teal campaigners have proven themselves to be masters at gathering steam quickly and uniting voters in vulnerable electorates.

In January 2022, there were warning signs of looming upset in some Liberal seats, but they hadn’t all coalesced. By May 2022, teal support had exploded.

Payman’s decision has the potential to open the door for independent or Greens candidates ready to seize the moment in seats where Labor should be worried. As the last election showed, it doesn’t take much of a swing away from an incumbent to suddenly threaten what used to be a safe seat.

However the issue of Gaza appears in the padded halls of parliament, Labor needs to be aware that community disappointment is spreading in some of its most treasured seats.

The signs are blaring, just like they were in 2022. Labor cannot say it wasn’t warned, or that history won’t repeat itself.

Angus Livingston is The Age’s deputy news director and a former Canberra bureau chief.

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