Teals snared Liberal seats. Now Dutton’s surge could take them back

The stunning defeat for the Liberal Party in urban Australia at the last election led to the natural assumption that it had lost some of its blue-ribbon electorates for years. The crumbling of the Liberal vote in the wealthiest parts of Sydney and Melbourne seemed to shut the party out of power for more than one term.

But old assumptions need to be challenged, if not cast aside, now that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is running rampant as the alternative prime minister and the Liberal Party primary vote has steadily recovered from that 2022 defeat. The Coalition lost the election with a primary vote of 35.7 per cent and is now on 38 per cent in the Resolve Political Monitor, published in this masthead.

Illustration: bySimon Letch

There is no such thing as a uniform swing, so the national polling cannot reveal how voters will shift in the blue-ribbon seats now claimed by the “teal” independents. Even so, Dutton has cemented the increase in the primary vote and has a stronger personal rating than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. If the country deserts Labor, the national wave may have enough power to sweep some of the teals out of parliament.

Teal campaigners know this. One of them says every independent MP who came to parliament at the last election will face a hard contest at the next. Another says the campaigns are certain to be difficult. They are right to be wary. The Liberals have many members, some with deep pockets, in these electorates. If Dutton wants power, not just a hung parliament, he must throw everything at removing the teals.

Dutton’s own decisions cast doubt on whether he really believes he has a chance. Why start a culture war, for instance, by saying he will not stand in front of the Aboriginal flag? Will this win him a teal seat? He already has the Sky News base, yet he does very little to appeal to voters who want free-market economic policy and liberal social policy. He cannot resist being a conservative warrior – and he may ultimately pay the price for that.

Money will be vital, of course, because the most successful independent MPs spent a combined $12 million at the last election. One of the biggest donors, the Climate 200 group set up by Simon Holmes a Court, has matched or slightly exceeded the cash it raised at this point of the political cycle three years ago – a sign it is preparing for a big fight. Expect an avalanche of leaflets in key seats.

This does not mean the Liberals are talking up their chances of unseating Allegra Spender in Wentworth, Monique Ryan in Kooyong, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar or Zali Steggall in Warringah.

Stung badly at the last election, the Liberals are being more careful with their candidate selection this time. They have chosen women with professional careers such as Amelia Hamer in Kooyong, Jaimee Rogers in Warringah and Ro Knox in Wentworth.

They are not big-noting their campaign in urban Queensland, either, where they want to retake the electorates of Brisbane and Ryan from the Greens. And it is hard to predict the outcome for Kate Chaney in Curtin, the key West Australian teal seat.

The primary goal for the Liberals is to harness the fury of the “battler” Australians who have turned against Labor over the cost of living, which mostly means families outside the more comfortable suburbs. In Melbourne, that means targeting McEwen on the edge of the city and Aston in suburbia – reclaiming the seat lost to Labor at the byelection this term. In NSW, it means winning Gilmore on the South Coast and Dobell and Robertson on the Central Coast.

The conventional wisdom is that Dutton cannot win enough seats to take power in his own right. The Coalition has 55 seats in the lower house and will need 76 to govern (the House of Representatives returns to 150 seats at the election). This was seen as utterly implausible after the last election, when Albanese enjoyed an incredible honeymoon, but things have changed – it is no longer unrealistic.

Dutton needs to hold every seat and win 21 more to gain a majority – not easy, but not impossible. The net gain is two seats fewer than Labor added when Kevin Rudd become prime minister in 2007 and three seats more than the Coalition took when Tony Abbott became prime minister in 2013. So it is within the range of what we have seen – and it would be easier if the Liberals could reclaim some of the blue-ribbon seats rather than hope to seize very safe Labor seats.

With months to go to the election, nobody should dismiss the prospect of Dutton as prime minister – but it is equally ridiculous to take today’s polling and assert that there is no chance of Albanese governing with a majority.

So here is another lesson from history: in both 2007 and 2013, the parties seeking to take power from opposition had much bigger leads in the polls than their final tallies at the ballot boxes. Rudd often led by 55-45 in two-party terms when he was months out from the election; Abbott led by the same 55-45 margin at his best before victory. The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows Dutton and the Coalition lead by 51-49 in two-party terms.

The Liberals did themselves no favours in the last campaign, when the teals ran hard on integrity in government, equality for women and action on climate change. In the most outlandish decision, the Liberals chose Katherine Deves as their candidate in Warringah, elevating her concerns about transgender people in sport. Steggall increased her hold on the seat to about 61 per cent of the two-party vote.

The new electorate boundaries in Sydney and Melbourne suggest some contests will be tight. In his new pendulum, ABC election analyst Antony Green estimates Scamps holds Mackellar by just 3.3 per cent, Ryan holds Kooyong by 2.2 per cent and Zoe Daniel holds Goldstein by 3.3 per cent. The resignation of Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher has cheered campaigners who want independent candidate Nicolette Boele to replace him in Bradfield – where Green estimates the Liberals have a margin of just 2.5 per cent in two-party terms.

While the attention given to the teals can infuriate their major party rivals, the facts show they work harder than most in politics. They seem to understand a key lesson from the short term of each parliament: you only have three years, so run hard.

Spender has contributed more to economic debate than the Liberals, with actual ideas on tax reform when we are still waiting for Liberal frontbenchers to reveal their policies. Ryan has pushed for reform to lobbying rules, Scamps has put forward draft law to stop political mates getting plum jobs, Steggall campaigns for truth in political advertising and Chaney is the lead advocate for stronger controls on political donations.

And they have not done this in isolation. The independent member for Indi, Helen Haines, was a big force in the final form of the National Anti-Corruption Commission. Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie speaks up on gambling, freedom of speech and transparency. The independents have clearly helped create a better parliament. Why should voters fear a bigger crossbench?

The weakness of the Labor primary vote can cut both ways for the independents. Conservatives will attack them for helping a Labor government hold onto power – and Dutton is already warning that a vote for a teal is a vote for Albanese. The flipside is that the prospect of a Dutton government can work in their favour. Give us the balance of power, they might say, and we can drag a conservative government to the centre.

This will be a hard campaign for the independents. As a group, they may be the last big barrier to Dutton claiming a majority and becoming prime minister. Every increase in the Liberal primary vote makes the teals a bigger target.

David Crowe is chief political correspondent.

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