Teal independents to get an unlikely preference boost – from Clive Palmer

Independents seeking to disrupt the major parties will receive a boost from Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party’s decision to put incumbent parties last on how-to-vote cards, as the billionaire targets the Coalition for the first time rather than just Labor.

The change in strategy from Palmer’s party will threaten Liberal MPs defending their seats against Climate 200-backed candidates by preferencing the independents in tight contests for the regional Victorian seats of Wannon and Monash, and the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield.

Clive Palmer at a press conference at Parliament House earlier this year.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Any effect will be more muted in Labor-held marginal seats that are central to the election outcome – such as the regional NSW seats of Gilmore, Robertson and Paterson – because Palmer already put Labor last in those electorates in 2022.

Crucially, in the most marginal seat of Bennelong in Sydney, the Trumpet of Patriots will buck the principle to preference incumbent Labor MP Jerome Laxale above Liberal challenger Scott Yung.

That seat is considered notionally Liberal after a redistribution, but only by 0.04 per cent. Palmer’s party received 2.93 per cent of votes in Bennelong in 2022, meaning the minor party’s preferences could be enough to shift the result if they swing towards Labor rather than the Liberals in 2025.

The minor party vote will be key at this year’s election as recent polling shows voters are shifting away from the Coalition towards third party options, with only a small fraction choosing Labor.

Palmer’s move to help non-incumbents in the lower house is intended to cause chaos for the major parties, which joined forces to pass laws banning the type of big spending political campaigns Palmer has run.

The billionaire’s thrusts into politics have previously been directed at Labor, but his target this year is more mixed. Palmer is campaigning on a Trumpist agenda, appealing to the same disaffected right-wing voters who might consider voting for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Palmer said he wanted to take on the “uni-party” of the Liberals and Labor, which he said shared policies and weekend picnics together, in a statement that explained his approach to preferences.

“They don’t really dislike each other, it’s a case of you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours. That’s why we’ve had a uni-party for many years and that’s why we are going backwards,” Palmer said.

“We will place Labor and the Liberals last in the seats they hold to shake up the status quo and bring common-sense policies to fix this great country.”

Palmer’s United Australia Party received 4.1 per cent of first preference votes in the 2022 election when it put Labor last. About 62 per cent of the party’s 604,536 lower house votes ultimately went to the Coalition, while 38 per cent went to Labor.

But Palmer’s impact on this year’s election is likely to be less significant despite a $100 million advertising spend after he was forced to rebrand as the Trumpet of Patriots because he failed to register the United Australia Party on time.

A YouGov poll taken this week puts support for the Trumpet of Patriots at 2 per cent, while this masthead’s Resolve poll counted 5 per cent of votes for “other” – which takes in Palmer’s party – but recorded higher support for independents and One Nation.

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham suspected Palmer’s how-to-votes would have little impact. “Not many people follow their how to vote cards, and they won’t get many votes anyway,” he said.

“Minor party voters tend to be independent minded, and not see the cards because the parties don’t have enough resources to hand them out.”

But if the Victorian seat of Wannon goes down to the wire between Liberal MP Dan Tehan and independent challenger Alex Dyson, and Palmer gets close to his 2022 results, a shift in preference flows towards Dyson among that 3.3 per cent of voters could make an impact.

Palmer’s party is also making an effort to hurt the Coalition in Monash, putting Climate 200 candidate Deb Leonard second, followed by the incumbent Liberal defector Russell Broadbent, and preferencing the new Liberal candidate last. Palmer polled 4.13 per cent there last election.

In Bradfield, Palmer attracted 2.6 per cent of the vote in 2022, with preference flows skewing towards the Liberals rather than independent challenger Nicolette Boele. If that changes, and the contest comes down to a few hundred votes, it could hurt Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian.

The Trumpet of Patriots will also preference incumbent teal candidates beneath the Liberals, but this is less advantageous to the Coalition because Palmer has fewer voters in seats the opposition is trying to win back.

In the Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, the United Australia Party received 0.99 per cent and 1.88 per cent of votes respectively last election. In the Perth seat of Curtin, Palmer’s vote was 1.74 per cent.

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