Shock regional gains for Labor, but it’s not all victorious

Follow our live coverage of the 2025 federal election here.

Voters have swung hard to Labor in several key regional seats, delivering shock wins in Tasmania and Far North Queensland and boosting the Albanese government’s standing in the bush.

Labor is also on the opposite end of the more surprising events of election eve, with the ultra-safe Canberra seat of Bean, which was held by David Smith on a 12.9 per cent margin, in doubt with a big swing to independent Jessie Price. The seat remained too close to call at the time of publication.

Matt Smith (left), who won the seat of Leichhardt, with Anthony Albanese (second right) on the campaign trail. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Rural and regional seats were watched more closely than usual in this election because a raft of tight contests were expected to play a significant role in determining who formed government.

Labor candidate Anne Urquhart had effected a thumping 15 per cent swing to her party in Braddon, on Tasmania’s west coast.

Urquhart won on a platform of support for the controversial salmon farming industry, which is under fire across Tasmania and the country over its environmental impacts. But with the strong backing of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Labor pledged to support the industry and its jobs in western Tasmania.

Labor’s Jess Teesdale ousted Liberal renegade MP Bridget Archer, who has frequently distanced herself from the Coalition’s hardline positions, with a 10.5 per cent swing in Bass.

The stunning Tasmanian result will be read as an endorsement for Albanese’s cautious approach to environmental reform. He effectively overruled Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s move to bolster nature protections last year and weighed in on her portfolio when he preempted her decisions on the future of salmon farming.

Basketball star Matt Smith won the seat of Leichhardt, based around Cairns in Far North Queensland, from the Liberals. Liberal candidate Jeremy Neal had sought to replace retiring MP Warren Entsch.

Labor also delivered an against-the-odds win in Gilmore, on the NSW South Coast, where Fiona Phillips was returned for a third term. The seat was the most marginal in the country and tipped to flip to the Liberals by the bookmakers.

The big swing to the independent candidate and potential loss in Bean will come as a jolt to Labor, regardless of the outcome. The party had expected a comfortable win in the southern Canberra suburbs, where a majority of workers are public servants who were expected to vote Labor after the Liberals’ threat to slash 41,000 public sector jobs.

Meanwhile, the Nationals have held off an attack from a teal-tinged independent in Cowper, on the NSW North Coast.

But the party suffered disappointment in Calare, in Central West NSW. Former Nationals MP Andrew Gee quit the party during the past term and turned independent, setting up a bitter battle in which he prevailed.

The Liberals held the once safe seat of Wannon, with frontbench Liberal MP Dan Tehan beating independent candidate Alex Dyson, seeking to unseat Tehan at the third attempt.

In doing so, the party has preserved a strong leadership contender who could replace Peter Dutton, who lost his seat of Dickson in Brisbane.

Nationals leader David Littleproud held his seat of Maranoa – he will serve a fourth term in parliament.Credit: Max Mason-Hubers

Nationals leader David Littleproud – who had held his seat, Maranoa, early on Saturday night – began the election count in a bullish mood, telling Channel 10 just after the polls closed in eastern states that the Coalition could defy polling results and form government.

He even hinted that his party could add to its tally of seats, citing potential wins in Bendigo, Calare and Lingiari in the Northern Territory.

“I think it’s going to be a hung parliament, I just don’t know who’s going to be the one that forms government,” Littleproud said before Labor’s decisive victory.

Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff Peta Credlin said the junior Coalition partner set the example for the Liberals to follow.

“The Nationals party hasn’t lost sight of who they are, what they stand for and who votes for them,” she told Sky.

The Nationals also failed to pick up a seat they covet, Hunter, in NSW coal country, with Labor MP Dan Repacholi extending his lead.

The final tally for regional seats was particularly crucial for the Nationals because the Coalition agreement between the Liberals and their junior partner allocates frontbench positions based on each party’s split of seats.

In preserving the status quo, Littleproud has solidified his position and strengthened his offering to his MPs, who now have a strong case to argue for increased positions on the Coalition frontbench, in shadow ministries, given the poor result by the Liberals.

Bob Katter (Katter’s Australian Party) held Kennedy in northern Queensland and independent Helen Haines retained Indi in north-east Victoria.

Counting continues.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.