Labor has finally found a more convincing message. The mystery is why it took so long

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Opinions have flipped in just a few short weeks when Australians are asked whether Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton will triumph at the federal election.

Only 34 per cent of voters thought one month ago that the prime minister would keep his job, while 43 per cent thought the opposition leader was set to take power.

But the formal campaign has begun with a strong sense that Albanese has the upper hand: 42 per cent now think he will win, while only 34 per cent expect a Dutton victory.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor is the first poll to show Prime Minister Anthony Albanese making up ground lost to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Credit:

There is a powerful shift in sentiment in every major indicator in the Resolve Political Monitor – primary vote, preferred prime minister, ratings on leadership performance and opinions about which side is best on key policies. Labor has gained on all counts.

Take, for instance, the regular questions about whether voters can trust Albanese or Dutton to take the country forward. Dutton has won this in every survey since May last year. Albanese now has a tiny lead, 29 to 27 per cent.

Another example: Dutton has led since early last year when voters are asked whether the leaders are communicating well. Albanese now has the edge, just slightly, 29 to 25 per cent.

It looks as if Labor has finally marshalled its forces to win back voters with better policies and a more convincing message. The mystery is why it took so long. The prospect of imminent defeat finally jolted the insiders into action.

Peter Dutton campaigns in Sydney and Anthony Albanese in the ACT on Sunday. Credit: James Brickwood, Alex Ellinghausen

There is no sign that US President Donald Trump is good for Dutton. On the key measures of personal performance, Australians have shifted to Albanese. But the prime minister is walking a tightrope because he wants to suggest Dutton is copying the American president while, at the very same time, claiming the government will work well with Trump. Can Albanese keep up this high-wire act for five weeks?

One part of the government’s message has fallen flat: the federal budget. Only 32 per cent say this budget is good for the country, the lowest rating in years. But this is not pivotal for the election. The result was 50 per cent for the federal budget in March 2022, when Scott Morrison was prime minister. Albanese won power seven weeks later.

By rights, the Coalition has “won” the budget argument. Only 51 per cent like the Labor cut to personal tax rates, but 68 per cent like the Coalition cut to fuel excise. Albanese has rebounded anyway. Australians are looking past the election sweeteners when they consider the two leaders and their parties.

Resolve director Jim Reed says the results suggest the shift to Labor was under way long before the budget – and as far back as the arrival of Cyclone Alfred, which made an earlier election impossible.

“Alfred rescued Albo,” says Reed. “The longer campaign and the federal budget have been very beneficial for Labor.”

Labor strategists will not see it this way, because they always thought Dutton would lose ground when he came under scrutiny closer to polling day. Cyclone or not, the race was going to tighten when election day neared.

The latest survey reveals a big shift over just one month. Unlike other polls, the Resolve Political Monitor does not give respondents an option to be undecided on primary vote; they must tell us how they would cast their votes. This can lead to big swings because nobody can “park” their vote in an uncommitted cohort.

“Our poll is designed to be more sensitive by not allowing voters to hide by refusing to answer,” says Reed. “This is why Labor’s initial honeymoon was higher in our poll, why we were the first to show a majority No vote in the referendum, why Labor’s fall from favour was sharper in our survey – and why we are now seeing a large swing back to them this month.”

The margin of error in this survey is lower than usual, at 1.7 percentage points. This is because Resolve put the core questions to a larger base of 3237 respondents. As always, the pool of respondents was selected to reflect the wider population.

The survey shows the two major parties are neck-and-neck with 50 per cent each in two-party terms when voters say how they would allocate their preferences. Some polling experts prefer a measure that calculates preferences on the way they flowed at the last election. Tallied this way, the results show Labor has the edge: 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

Neither result is conclusive because the margin of error is 1.7 percentage points.

The 50-50 outcome suggests a swing of 2.1 per cent against Labor in two-party terms since the last election. This would be enough to see Labor lose four seats – Gilmore, Bennelong, Lyons and Lingiari – when applying the pendulum devised by ABC analyst Antony Green. But there is no such thing as a uniform swing.

So this poll is not a prediction. It is merely a snapshot of a point in time, with a wild ride ahead to polling day.

The outcome, at this stage, is far from a Labor victory. It is wiser to regard it as a Labor recovery. The rest depends on whether Albanese builds on it – or Dutton crushes it.

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