In focusing on the Voice, Labor has lost its hard-won lead on the economy

When Anthony Albanese committed to introducing an Indigenous Voice in his election night victory speech just 16 months ago, did he envision a smooth path to his cherished goal? If he did, he didn’t get one.

His government has found itself caught between the need to campaign hard for a Yes vote in the referendum to give it any chance of success, and the expectation of millions of Australian voters that it will give priority to tackling cost of living pressures.

Voters struggling with the cost of living crisis are turning away from voting Yes to an Indigenous Voice to parliament.Credit: Dionne Gain

With the referendum only weeks away, the government is stranded. Its campaign for the Voice has been confused and weak. And as that lame effort, with all its diffuse messaging, has proceeded, the government has also gradually been losing the confidence of a large swag of voters on its handling of living costs.

It’s hard to believe that the two aren’t linked. There was always a good chance that some voters would punish the government if they perceived that it was not out there, front and centre every day, talking up its efforts to reduce their kitchen table problems.

For many households, the current economy is a weird cocktail of full employment coupled with inflation and interest rates that are very high relative to recent history. For those with a mortgage, borrowings are also high.

For those looking to buy a home, prices are – you guessed it – high. And rental accommodation is hard to find and expensive. Meanwhile, real incomes have lagged behind inflation and most workers have little agency in the workplace to press claims for higher pay.

It’s reasonable to conclude that some might not want to see the new government directing too much energy away from what ails and stresses them personally.

The public and media focus on opinion polls throughout this year has been on the shift in attitudes towards the Voice – from an apparent majority Yes vote to what looks like a win for the No case. That’s understandable, given the importance of the issue and the relative novelty of having a referendum.

But while support for Yes has fallen and No support has risen, the Resolve Monitor has tracked a range of measures that should be very concerning for the government and its senior ministers.

The referendum debate began in earnest in January when Opposition Leader Peter Dutton issued his series of questions about the Voice. Around that time, the first Resolve poll found the government riding high.

The great difficulty for the Labor Party for a long time, going back to the 1990s at least, has been voter unwillingness to believe in its capacity to manage the economy. But in January, Resolve found Labor ahead of the Liberals as the better economic manager 37 per cent to 29.

In the latest poll taken two weeks ago, the Liberals now lead 36 per cent to 30. On keeping the cost of living low, in January Labor was ahead 39 to 21. Now, it’s just behind the Liberals, 27 to 28. When those surveyed were asked to nominate the best party to look after them and their household in January, 41 per cent chose Labor and 22 per cent opted for the Liberals. Now, Labor leads by a wafer – 32 to 30.

For the government, the polling is not disastrous. On voting intention, it still outscores the Coalition parties after preferences, and it rates reasonably on competence and leadership. But the trend is there. On the measure of which party is listening and focusing on the right issues, Labor has dropped from 41 per cent in January to 28 per cent now, while the Liberals have risen from 16 per cent to 23 per cent.

Should these numbers persist after Australians have cast their votes on the Voice on October 14, that would present a serious problem for the government at the next election. Any primacy that Labor ever establishes in the public mind when it comes to its capacity to handle the nation’s finances is always hard-earned. It’s very tough to achieve and just as easy to lose.

Ideally, our hearts and minds are capacious enough to be able to countenance more than one set of issues at the same time, and it should not be beyond us to extend our gaze beyond our own interests. But in politics, as in life, timing counts for so much.

These are unprecedented times, with a combination of the pandemic’s after-effects and mounting levels of economic inequality still present in the economy and society.

Perhaps the Voice proposal would not have been subject to such a rough go if the prime minister had chosen to run the campaign at a less economically stressful time. That might have been better for our First Nations people and the government.

Shaun Carney is a regular columnist.

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