Here’s how the US election would pan out if Australians voted instead

Australians have swung behind Kamala Harris in the contest with Donald Trump to decide the next US president, with 52 per cent saying she would get their vote if they could cast ballots in the presidential election.

Support for Harris has surged since she emerged as the leading candidate to replace President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, giving her twice the support the Australian voters showed for Biden.

An exclusive survey shows that only 21 per cent of Australian adults would vote for Trump if they had a say at the election on November 5, in line with months of survey results that show the Republican Party candidate has only modest support here.

Harris is also the most popular of the three main candidates for the presidency this year, with a net likeability of 24 percentage points compared to minus 47 points for Trump and minus 25 points for Biden.

The findings in the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, reveal a dramatic shift in Australian views when Harris replaced Biden in August.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the findings also showed that Australians were more decided about the American contest than they were on similar questions about Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Australians, if given the chance, heavily favour voting for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump.Credit: AP

“Australians appear to have made up their minds about Trump, and it was really only the doubt about whether Biden’s re-election was in our best interests that held them back,” he said.

“With Harris now in the frame, they have switched their support to her quite consistently.”

Only 30 per cent of Australian adults preferred Biden as president when asked about the contest with Trump in June, and this fell to 26 per cent in July.

The support for the Democratic candidate jumped to 51 per cent in early August when Australians were asked about Harris rather than Biden, and it has remained close to that level in subsequent months. It edged up to 52 per cent in the October survey.

There was little change in support for Trump, however, with 21 per cent backing him in July and the same number supporting him in October.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1606 people from October 1 to 5 and produced results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent.

The latest survey found that 27 per cent of voters were undecided when asked if Albanese or Dutton was their preferred prime minister, but the question about a hypothetical vote in the American election found only 11 per cent were undecided.

The biggest shift over the past few months came from people who were unsure about the choice until Harris emerged as the replacement for Biden.

While 31 per cent of respondents said in June and July that they would vote for “someone else” when given a choice between Biden and Trump, that fell to 7 per cent in August and September when they were asked about Harris and Trump instead in those months. The result on this option rose to 8 per cent in October.

In a big contrast between Australian and American voters, only 8 per cent responded to the hypothetical question about the US election by choosing the option that said they would not vote because it was voluntary to do so.

About 34 per cent of eligible US voters chose not to vote at the 2020 presidential election, according to the Pew Research Centre, a not-for-profit group that said the last election had the best turnout for any US national election since 1900.

“Australians are used to compulsory voting, so if placed in the position of voting in the US they tell us they’re more likely to do so than the Americans,” Reed said.

Biden stepped down as the Democratic candidate on July 21 and Harris emerged as the leading candidate to replace him on the presidential ticket, although she was not confirmed until the party’s convention in Chicago on August 23.

The Resolve Political Monitor found that support for Harris was strong as soon as she was touted as the likely candidate and well before her confirmation at the convention.

The support for Harris crosses party lines in Australia, with 47 per cent of Coalition voters saying they would vote for her, compared to 31 per cent who would vote for Trump.

Support for Harris is stronger among Labor voters, with 64 per cent in favour, and Greens voters, with 65 per cent in favour.

Asked about which candidate was best for Australia’s national interest, the results were close to the findings on the separate question about which candidate the respondent would vote for.

Harris led again on the “national interest” question, with 52 per cent saying she was the best for Australia, while 22 per cent thought Trump would be better and the rest were undecided.

The Resolve Political Monitor also tracked the popularity of the American leaders by asking if they had a positive, neutral or negative view of each one.

The latest survey found that 65 per cent had a negative view of Trump and 18 per cent had a positive view, resulting in a net rating of minus 47 percentage points. Only 1 per cent were unfamiliar with him and the rest were undecided.

Asked about Harris, 45 per cent were positive and 21 per cent were negative, resulting in a net rating of 24 points. Another 9 per cent were not familiar with her and the rest were undecided.

The Resolve Political Monitor asked the same question about Biden before and after he stepped down from the campaign. While 18 per cent were positive about him in October, 43 per cent were negative. This resulted in a net rating of minus 25.

Biden’s net rating improved from minus 39 in July, amid headlines about his age and cognitive ability in the weeks after his June 21 debate against Trump.

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