Get set for a bitter election campaign fuelled by fear, not hope

The upcoming federal election looks set to be dominated by a grimly uninspiring question: Would you rather a weak prime minister or a nasty one?

The year has begun with a hard-edged, bitter energy fuelled by personal attacks, scare campaigns, antisemitic incidents and the inevitable January culture war debates over Australia Day.

Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese: Instead of seeking to uplift a weary nation, the two leaders are reflecting voters’ weariness back at them.Credit: Dominic Lorrimer, Oscar Coleman

With an election due by May at the latest, all signs point to an electorate that is grumpy, cynical and uninspired by politics. Instead of seeking to uplift a weary nation, the two major party leaders are reflecting voters’ weariness back at them.

A survey released at the end of last year by polling firm Freshwater Strategy found a plurality of Australians believed the situation was improving on just one of 12 topics: relations with China.

On almost all the other issues polled – including housing affordability, the national economy, household finances and the immigration system – more Australians than not thought things were going backwards.

That’s a disturbing sign for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as he tries to make the case for Labor to be re-elected.

In line with centre-left leaders across the developed world, Albanese is battling drooping approval ratings and struggling to cut through with voters.

A Resolve Political Monitor survey conducted for this masthead at the end of last year found Albanese had a net likeability rating of minus 17 per cent, significantly down on a year ago.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton posted a net rating of zero in a noticeable increase from the previous year. While he is hardly beloved by voters, that’s a good result for Dutton given his primary job is to critique the government’s performance.

Rather than try to convince tetchy Australians that they are doing well economically, Albanese’s task is to persuade them their cost-of-living struggles would be worse under a Dutton-led government. And that Australian society would be even less cohesive with his opponent in The Lodge.

Albanese – who began the year with a campaigning blitz through Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia – is aware that he can no longer hover above the fray with statesmanlike serenity, as he did in the early days of his prime ministership. He has to get down and dirty by sharpening his attacks on Dutton and drawing a clearer distinction between himself and his opponent.

In a notable ramping-up of his rhetoric, Albanese on Monday declared Dutton’s response to the government’s cost-of-living relief had been “cold-hearted, mean-spirited, sometimes just plain nasty”.

“Peter Dutton has built a career on dividing people,” he told ABC radio. “He’s built a career on targeting people, particularly people who are vulnerable.”

Albanese’s policy announcement of the day – $3 billion more for the national broadband network – was ostensibly positive but was framed as an attack on the Coalition.

“Only Labor will finish the NBN and keep it in public hands,” Albanese said, foreshadowing a Mediscare-style campaign about non-existent Coalition plans to privatise the network.

At the same time, Labor hopes to use Dutton’s track record as health minister – he tried to introduce a $7 GP co-payment in 2014 – to paint him as a threat to the public healthcare system.

Dutton returned from holidays with a campaign rally in Melbourne on Sunday that contained no new policy announcements. Instead, he continued his long-standing attack on Albanese as “one of our country’s weakest-ever prime ministers” and warned that Labor would be even worse if governing in a coalition with the Greens or “teal” MPs.

In a remarkably broad and overblown attack referencing a 2023 pro-Palestine protest, he declared: “Every incident of antisemitism can be traced back to the prime minister’s dereliction of leadership in response to the sordid events on the steps of the Sydney Opera House.”

Dutton on Monday vowed to move quickly to force local councils to hold citizenship ceremonies on Australia Day if he is elected.

Labor thought Dutton was foolish to pick a fight with Woolworths last year over its decision not to stock special Australia Day merchandise. But sensing a drift back to the right on the issue, the grocery giant this year reversed the move.

A poll released on Monday by the conservative Institute of Public Affairs found that 69 per cent of Australians agreed with the statement, “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26”, up six points on the previous year.

What we don’t yet know is whether, as well as seeking to drag Dutton down, Albanese will try to capture voters’ attention with a big, bold, populist economic policy – like he did last year by overhauling the stage three tax cuts.

If not, get set for a grinding campaign of attrition that plays to voters’ fears rather than their aspirations for a better future.

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