Dutton to launch assault on Labor’s red wall. Can it win him the next election?

Peter Dutton will launch an assault on Labor heartland in an ambitious attempt to win an election majority, as Anthony Albanese throws money at the Greens seats including Max Chandler-Mather’s to offset losses in the suburbs.

The moves come after the prime minister sparked fresh speculation about the election date by making an offhand remark that suggested parliament might not return for the federal budget due on March 25.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spars with the opposition in what might be the final question time of this term of parliament.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Despite growing optimism inside the opposition on snatching the election, Liberals in Canberra this week expressed private concern that some MPs might be too complacent, assuming they are on track to win.

The Coalition needs to pick up about 20 seats – a feat not achieved since Tony Abbott ended the Rudd-Gillard era – to form a majority and about a dozen to be within reach of cobbling together a minority government. Some Liberal MPs believe winning eight to 10 seats would be a good result.

The opposition leader is grappling with how to temper hopes while setting sights on outer suburban seats previously viewed to be unwinnable such as Bruce (6.5 per cent) and Hawke (7.5 per cent) in Victoria and other safe Labor seats like Werriwa in NSW (5.9 per cent) and Blair in Queensland (5.2 per cent).

Dutton is expected to target some of these seats in the next fortnight, according to senior Liberals unable to speak publicly about plans that are subject to change, after internal party research over summer showed tight contests. Albanese will be in the marginal Labor seat of Parramatta next week, a government source said, with the Coalition slightly ahead at 51-49 in the latest Resolve Political Monitor.

Max Chandler-Mather (front) has often feuded with the prime minister.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Victorian frontbencher Jane Hume signalled the opposition’s confidence of gaining ground in Labor’s working-class seats, saying: “Labor has taken their traditional Victorian heartland for granted and its clear voters have had enough.”

“Victorians are increasingly frustrated by their hip-pocket pain, their congested and poorly maintained roads, and the disturbing increase in crime in their communities. You can understand their fury; Labor are constantly distracted by inner-city green left issues,” she said.

The Coalition was buoyed by the state byelection in the seat of Werribee at which Labor lost 17 per cent of its primary vote. Labor will cling into the seat however after the Liberals only picked up 3.8 per cent, a sign the Liberals may be overconfident in traditional Labor areas.

Dutton’s team is bullish about picking up a swag of suburban seats but Labor believes it can offset an anti-Labor swing in the outer suburbs with wins of its own, including Leichhardt in Queensland, Sturt in South Australia, and the two Queensland inner-city seats of Brisbane and Griffith, held by the Greens on margins of 4 and 10 per cent, respectively.

LNP preferences are likely to flow more heavily to Labor in the inner-city seats as the opposition seeks to punish the Greens for its stance on Gaza. Jewish Liberal MP Julian Leeser labelled the Greens a “racist antisemitic party” on Thursday.

Labor has serious ambitions to take back the seats of Brisbane, which the Liberals could also win, and Griffith – snatched in 2022 by Greens housing spokesman Chandler-Mather. Industrial Relations Minister Murray Watt said the party was stepping up its campaigning in these seats as Labor believes both races are close.

“Having personally doorknocked voters in Griffith and Brisbane, it’s clear that voters have tired of the Greens’ grandstanding and obstruction,” he said. “Even Liberal voters are telling us they are considering voting Labor, just to get rid of the Greens.

“Voters have noticed the Greens blocking Labor’s housing reforms and siding with the disgraced former leaders of the CFMEU, and they don’t like it.”

Labor MP Graham Perrett (centre) is congratulated by colleagues after delivering his valedictory speech.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The chatter about election timing was sparked when Albanese quipped in question time that one of his Labor colleagues, Graham Perrett, was on his “last day” in parliament.

Albanese made the remark when Perrett, who will retire at the coming election, interjected during question time and was asked to leave by the Speaker, Milton Dick.

Albanese remonstrated light-heartedly with the Speaker to suggest this was harsh treatment toward Perrett, saying: “On his last day!”

While several journalists in the press gallery heard these words, others said the prime minister had instead said: “On his last days” – plural – meaning there might still be a budget before the election.

Parliament rose on Thursday after sitting for two weeks. The Senate is meant to resume for estimates on February 24, but the House of Representatives is not due to return until budget day on March 25.

While Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher have said they are working on the budget, Albanese could call an election in the next three weeks, clearing the way for polling day on March 29, April 5 or April 12.

The government is not required to deliver a budget before the election and could issue an economic statement instead – a cut-down policy document that can be released at the start of a campaign.

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