Dutton has clarity on Israel, but the PM is reading the nation’s mood

The findings in the latest Resolve Political Monitor help to explain a contradiction in the way the war in the Middle East is shaping Australian politics.

The clearest finding is that most Australians do not want to take sides in a foreign war and are deeply reluctant to offer anything except food and medical aid to those caught in the bombardment.

Peter Dutton’s simple, direct message on the conflict in the Middle East is cutting through more than Anthony Albanese’s more nuanced view.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen, AP

So 52 per cent oppose taking refugees from either side, 67 per cent are against providing military equipment and 72 per cent oppose sending Australian military support. Even the idea of voicing in-principle support is challenging: 51 per cent do not want Australia to take sides.

At the same time, however, the new survey shows that Peter Dutton is winning the domestic fight over the foreign war. Asked their view about which response from major parties and leaders they prefer, 22 per cent name Dutton and the Coalition. This gives him a narrow lead over Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, favoured by 18 per cent.

This is the contradiction. The opposition leader gains a political advantage, yet he takes a public stand at odds with the majority view on this war. He leaves no doubt that he is taking sides: he strongly favours Israel and even suggested, one year ago, that Australia could send munitions to Israel if asked for help. This is exactly what two-thirds of voters do not want.

This is the first time the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted each month for this masthead, has asked voters to rate how the parties and their leaders have responded to the war. The question was brief and the wording deliberately bland. There was no preamble to describe the different approaches.

How can Dutton be at odds with the majority and still gain a political edge? Because he has a simple, direct message that conveys his utter conviction about the need to support Israel.

Dutton is aided by a conservative media in perpetual panic. Every event is turned into a test for Albanese – witness the way the Coalition seized on a loathsome tweet from the Iranian ambassador last week that praised a listed terrorist group.

Dutton can also mislead. “This government says that it’s okay for protesters to be out on the street,” he said last week. In fact, Albanese said last week that the pro-Palestinian protests on the anniversary of October 7 were not OK. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said the same on Sunday.

But the Labor language can be muddled while the Coalition has cut-through. Albanese tries so hard to sound reasonable to all sides that he ends up meandering. His position is close to the majority view – do not take sides – but sounds empty. This is incredibly dangerous for a prime minister because he sounds lacking in conviction.

The Greens, meanwhile, should pause to consider their approach. Only 6 per cent of Australians say Greens leader Adam Bandt and his party have responded best to the war. That is half the Greens’ primary vote. There is no sign the Greens are winning hearts and minds on this issue. Even Greens voters are unsure: only 32 per cent of them say Bandt and the Greens have the best response to this crisis.

The latest survey holds awkward findings for the protesters, as well. The Palestinian cause has galvanised a progressive movement that argues passionately against the destruction in Gaza and the bombardment of Lebanon. But the marchers may be weakening their cause with every step.

Protests often run the risk of looking aggressive and divisive, especially when emotions run high. A man who places a Nazi symbol on an Israeli flag heightens division. Someone who flies the flag of a listed terrorist group, or an approximation of it, does the same.

The Jewish community has marked the events of the last year without taking to the streets in the same way: more quiet vigils, fewer rowdy rallies. This may help explain why there is stronger community support for the Israeli cause than for those in Gaza.

When voters are asked whether Australia should voice in-principle support for either side in the conflict, 23 per cent say it should support Israel and 12 per cent say Gaza. Another 15 per cent say Australia should support both. This last finding is seemingly contradictory – perhaps even nonsensical to those who suspect there will never be a lasting peace – but it conveys a sense of sympathy for civilians on both sides.

In net terms, the Jewish community has more support than it seems to feel.

The advocates for a free Palestine will not like these findings, but they reflect a consistent view in the Resolve Political Monitor over many months. In June, for instance, 53 per cent said it was legitimate to hold a rally in a park. As soon as the rally moved onto the street, however, the support dropped. Only 41 per cent thought it was legitimate to hold a march.

The simple truth is that some of the pro-Palestinian tactics turn Australians off. There is barely any support for protest camps at universities or crowds that block access to electorate offices, yet these are the very tactics some of the activists prefer. While Labor deplores some of this behaviour, nobody condemns the protests as forcefully as Dutton.

That means the marchers run the risk of losing public support with every chant – and helping Dutton instead.

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