Blame game begins as crushing defeat in Victoria throws the spotlight on Canberra

The Liberal Party's disastrous performance in the Victorian election has put the Morrison government on course for a crushing defeat at next year's federal poll, as a brawl breaks out over whether Malcolm Turnbull's demise was to blame for the shock result.

Premier Daniel Andrews easily won Saturday's election following a surge to Labor in a swag of seats across the state, including marginal electorates held by the Liberals.

While Coalition figures blamed the loss on a poor campaign spearheaded by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy, they conceded leadership instability in Canberra was a significant factor with worrying implications for next year's federal election and the NSW election in March.

Party strategists believe the federal seat of Corangamite – the nation's most marginal – is a certain loss for the Coalition, along with Chisholm. Chisholm was the only electorate the Liberal Party won at the 2016 election. The current MP, Julia Banks, is leaving politics after sensationally alleging she was bullied during the Liberal leadership implosion in August.

They are also worried about La Trobe, which is held by 3.5 per cent, Deakin, held by Peter Dutton ally Michael Sukkar on 6.3 per cent, and Casey, held by Speaker Tony Smith on what should be a safe margin of 4.5 per cent.

Dunkley, which was won by the Liberal Party in 2016 but is now notionally Labor after a redistribution, is also vulnerable.

The Morrison government lost its majority after losing last month's Wentworth byelection, and will be swept from office next year even if it lost just one or two seats.

The Victorian Labor Party capitalised on Mr Turnbull's dumping by erecting billboards featuring Mr Guy alongside pictures of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and former prime minister Tony Abbott.

One senior Liberal MP told Fairfax Media that Mr Dutton's claim in January that Victorians were "scared to go out to restaurants" because of "African gang violence" had caused enormous damage in the state.

Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger – who is under pressure to resign over Saturday's outcome – said Mr Turnbull's removal had been "very disorderly" and "obviously the federal issue hasn't helped us".

"We knew we were always up against it here," he said.

Conservative commentator Andrew Bolt said the state defeat would send "shockwaves through Canberra".

A campaign poster featuring Matthew Guy with Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.

Bolt said Mr Guy was a "hopeless campaigner" and in a message to federal Liberals who are preparing next year's campaign strategy, said the party could not rely on "scaring people" to win votes.

"You cannot rely simply on scaring people," he said. "You've got to look serious and have serious answers and I don't think the voters ever thought the Liberals had that.

"There is no one author of this defeat, it is too big to say that, but the [federal] leadership is absolutely one of them."

Liberal Party campaigners believe conservative figures in the Morrison government are electoral poison to Victoria's progressive voters. Mr Morrison made just one appearance in the state during the election campaign.

The wipe-out in Victoria makes the option of a March federal election unlikely, because the Liberal Party will need more time to rebuild its relationship with voters.

Asked whether the federal Coalition can recover ahead of the poll, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said: "They say a week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity."

"We have a lot of work to do here in Victoria and across the country. The Prime Minister and I and all our colleagues are very, very conscious of that."

Mr Sukkar, who backed Mr Dutton's campaign to become prime minister, played down the federal implications.

"If you look at the entire 33-day campaign it was fought solely on local issues," he told Sky News.

Opposition defence spokesman Richard Marles, a Victorian, said there was "no doubt coup week played into this, and state Libs know it".

Carrington Brigham, who contested the Wentworth preselection battle for the Liberal Party, said: "You don’t win campaigns on ideological culture wars. Many Victorian Libs need to hear this tonight. Victorians want vision, an idea of opportunity and a path to a happy society."

Mr Abbott's former chief of staff Peta Credlin said federal issues played a role on Saturday but stressed the size of the defeat meant it could not be put down to any one issue.

The Liberal Party lost the October 20 Wentworth byelection in Mr Turnbull's old seat off the back of a record-breaking 19 per cent swing.