Albanese pays price as Voice support slips again

Voters have cut their support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese after a fierce political dispute over the Indigenous Voice, slashing his net performance rating from 16 to just 2 percentage points over the past month and weakening trust in the government’s message.

The powerful shift has narrowed the gap between Labor and the Coalition to only 4 percentage points on the primary vote, down from 9 points last month, at a crucial point in the contest for a Yes or No vote at the referendum likely in October.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton (right) trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 25 to 46 per cent, but has gained ground on this measure from the result of 21 to 51 per cent last month.Credit: Fairfax Media

The exclusive findings from the Resolve Political Monitor show that support for the Voice has slipped from 48 to 46 per cent on the Yes or No question that will decide the referendum, continuing a decline from 63 per cent one year ago.

The results indicate the Voice has majority support in Victoria and Tasmania but is opposed in NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, suggesting it would be defeated at the referendum because it would not gain a national majority as well as approval in a majority of states.

Labor retains a winning lead, with a primary vote that would increase its majority in parliament, but the results are its weakest in the Resolve surveys since last year’s election.

The latest survey, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, shows core support for Labor has fallen from 39 to 37 per cent over the past month, while the Coalition has lifted its primary vote from 30 to 33 per cent. The Greens have held their primary vote at 11 per cent while independent MPs have increased their support from 9 to 10 per cent nationwide.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton trails Albanese as preferred prime minister by 25 to 46 per cent but has gained ground on this measure from the result of 21 to 51 per cent last month.

Forty-four per cent of voters said Albanese was doing a good job and 42 per cent said he was doing a poor job, resulting in a net performance rating of 2 percentage points. His net rating was 35 points in January.

But this did not deliver a significant gain for Dutton. Asked about the opposition leader, 31 per cent said he was doing a good job and 44 per cent said he was doing a poor job, producing a net rating of minus 13 points, compared to minus 15 points one month ago.

The survey of 1603 eligible voters was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday after two weeks of intense dispute in federal parliament over the Voice, with Dutton challenging Albanese to declare if he wanted the proposed body to clear the way for a treaty with First Australians.

The survey has a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points, which means the fall in personal approval for Albanese, the shift on preferred prime minister and the increase in the Coalition primary vote are outside this margin.

“We’ve seen support for the Voice drop substantially over the last year, and up to now Labor’s vote has been largely unaffected,” Resolve director Jim Reed said.

“That’s created a growing tension between people voting No and at the same time supporting Labor, but now that stretched elastic band looks to have snapped back so that there is a political dimension and price to the referendum campaign.”

The survey allows respondents to offer unprompted remarks on any topic, with many naming the Voice as an issue.

“The comments we collect about people’s reasons for reconsidering their vote choice, and on their opinions of the prime minister, are almost exclusively about the Voice now,” Reed said.

“They either comment on what they see as the mishandling of the campaign, the need for a Voice, the issue causing division or simply being a distraction, but often they directly link this to Albanese’s judgment and competence.”

Asked which party and leader were focused on the right issues, 32 per cent named Labor and Albanese, while 21 per cent named the Coalition and Dutton. The government has a lead of 11 points on this question, but the lead has narrowed from 18 points last month and 25 points in January.

Advocates for the Yes campaign have said their internal polling shows they can win the referendum because many voters are “soft” or undecided in their views for either side. Former prime minister Tony Abbott opposes the Voice but said last month the Yes side could win with a well-funded campaign in the final weeks.

The Resolve Political Monitor tells respondents the proposed change to the Constitution in the exact wording set out by the government in the Constitution Alteration (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice) Act. The first question gives voters the option to be undecided and the second allows only a “yes or no” response akin to the referendum.

This means respondents are presented with the full wording of the change to the Constitution, including the recognition of First Australians, the reference to executive government and the power of the parliament to make laws regarding the Voice.

On the first question, 45 per cent were against, 37 per cent were in favour and 18 per cent were undecided.

On the second question, this changed to 54 per cent against and 46 per cent in favour.

Resolve combined the results for July and August, with 3213 responses in total, to generate a larger sample size and estimate support for the Voice in each state. This showed support was 51 per cent in Victoria, 46 per cent in NSW, 41 per cent in Queensland, 44 per cent in Western Australia, 46 per cent in South Australia and 55 per cent in Tasmania. The margin of error is higher for state results.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.