By Najma Sambul and Melissa Cunningham
Melbourne city is back, but not as we know it.
Forget the nine-to-five office crowd, whose post-pandemic numbers remain stubbornly low – the CBD’s new peak periods are the prime party times of Fridays, Saturdays and even a sneaky Sunday.
Melbourne CBD reported its highest level of foot traffic since 2015 in the first two months of the year, council data shows.Credit: Joe Armao
And of course, there is the Taylor Swift effect: a raft of major events, including the global superstar’s three sellout concerts at the MCG, and the Australian Open, have helped drive activity levels not seen for almost a decade.
“There’s a hustle and bustle in the city at the moment, especially along the Yarra and around Flinders Street Station,” said Tom Byrne at HQ Group, which owns several CBD venues.
The city reported its highest level of foot traffic since 2015 in the first two months of the year.
The pedestrian data – collected hourly via sensors across the city – shows the busiest day is Saturday, followed by Friday.
The busiest hour overall on weekends is about 1pm, as the dining and shopping crowds go about their business. On weekdays, the peak hour is later, at the end of working day, between 5pm and 6pm.
A sensor at Town Hall recorded its highest traffic day of the year so far on a Saturday – February 17 – the day of the second Swift concert.
Next best was February 11, a Sunday. That day, the city was teeming with people celebrating the fireworks and food of Lunar New Year. Swifties again took third and fourth spots, with the pop star’s shows on Friday, February 16, and Sunday, February 18, driving a wave of foot traffic between 1pm and 5pm.
A surge in CBD pedestrian activity was also noted in January, coinciding with the Australian Open smashing attendance records. Concerts in February by pop singer Pink and punk rockers Blink-182 also triggered high pedestrian numbers.
The City of Melbourne said both pedestrian activity and commuter activity had grown every year since the pandemic doldrums.
So far in 2024, average general weekday pedestrian activity near Town Hall is 3 per cent higher than it was last year. Last year, it was up 22 per cent on 2022.
The data shows that average general pedestrian activity at the sensor is 137 per cent higher than in 2020 – and just 5 per cent lower than in 2015.
Commuter activity is also on the rise. Average weekday patronage so far in 2024 is up 17 per cent at Southern Cross Station and 5 per cent at the Flinders Street underpass. Average commuter activity at Flinders Street in 2024 is more than double what it was in 2020.
According to data from the Department of Transport and Planning, patronage on the metropolitan network increased by 22 per cent for 2023 – back to 76 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
“Already in the first two months of 2024, we’ve seen patronage exceed 80 per cent of 2019 levels on the metropolitan network – even higher at weekends – with March on track for another strong month,” a department spokesperson said.
Melbourne Lord Mayor Sally Capp hopes the figures are a taste of things to come as the city rebounds from the pandemic.
“It’s great to see the return of people in numbers,” Capp said. “People are coming in for fun, whether that’s sport or culture, entertainment, retail or hospitality.”
The city’s recovery is also being boosted by the return of university students to campuses.
The University of Melbourne has reported a 15 per cent rise in foot traffic across some of the major precincts on campus. Since 2022, there has been a 41 per cent increase.
Deputy vice chancellor Professor Michael Wesley said the number of students attending in person during the first week of the semester was triple that of last year.
At RMIT University, close to 15,000 students attended in person across its three campuses last week.
Tom Byrne at Arbory Afloat on the Yarra River in the heart of Melbourne. He says big events are bringing in people who want to eat, drink and socialise.Credit: Jason South
But experts caution this early explosion in foot traffic for the first two months of the year was not enough to suggest a long-term trend, citing growing acceptance that CBD workers are unlikely to ever return to pre-pandemic ways of working.
Melbourne’s population has also increased since 2015 – up by more than 300,000 to 4,875,400 at the latest census in 2021. More recent estimates put it at about 5 million now.
New data also suggests an ongoing push to entice Melbourne workers back into the office has stalled, with most white-collar workers not coming in more than three days a week.
And it seems some are taking the opportunity to enjoy a pseudo-long weekend. Full-fare metro peak-time commuters have shown a strong preference for Tuesday-to-Thursday travel, data shows.
The most recently available survey data from the Property Council of Australia shows Melbourne’s overall office vacancy rate increased to 16.4 per cent in January – up from 14.9 per cent in July last year.
Property consultant Richard Jenkins, director of Plan1, said the private sector was strongly represented in data on workers returning to the office compared to others.
“Corporates have accepted that it’s not going to go back to the Monday-to-Friday, nine-to-five, for the next five to 10 years,” said Jenkins, who is working with large businesses on their return-to-office strategies.
“Businesses need to develop return-to-workplace strategies that aren’t heavy-handed like blanket mandates.”
A recent analysis by commercial real estate company CBRE found office occupancy was at 63 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in February this year. In comparison, Sydney attendance rates in the office hovered at 72 per cent late last year.
CBRE head of office research Tom Broderick said Australian businesses were pulling out all the stops to boost their office attendance by redesigning workplaces, setting mandatory in-office days, and offering financial incentives to staff.
Major Australian companies, including ANZ, have begun offering financial incentives for attendance after last year threatening to cut employees’ staff bonuses if they did not come in 50 per cent of the working week.
“Our feeling is that Melbourne will probably improve the most of any market this year,” Broderick said.
Anna Tumblety and Sophie Wilkinson enjoying a drink in the city last week.Credit: Jason South
On Bourke Street, international law firm HFW has in-office attendance at 80 per cent Monday to Thursday, as social activities, non-mandated work-from-office days, and Yarra River views lure staff from their homes.
HFW Australia managing partner Gavin Vallely said the hybrid work model is here to stay, but he’d noticed Melbourne’s CBD is “starting to recapture its vibrancy”.
“Following COVID, an increased number of people have opted for hybrid working and our expectation has been that they work in the office not less than three days a week. We do not have set days,” he said.
“COVID hit the hospitality and retail industries in the CBD hard, and they are such an important part of the fabric of Melbourne … the more events across all levels that bring people back to the CBD, the better.”
International law firm HFW’s Gavin Vallely in the CBD with colleague Belinda Blackburn.Credit: Joe Armao
Capp believes Melbourne can prosper even without the bustle of workers in the office five days a week, as the CBD morphs into a destination for entertainment and a place to live.
“When I started work many decades ago ... I came to work and I left again. I didn’t stay in the town for fun and I didn’t come in on weekends,” Capp said.
“But this city is multidimensional, and that’s what we’re really seeing now. It’s a change of the rhythm.”
For Byrne, the chief operating officer at HQ Group, he’s just happy big events such as the Taylor Swift shows and Melbourne Fashion Festival are bringing in people who want to eat, drink and be merry.
“We’re noticing that when people are venturing into the city for a special event, they’re sticking around for longer,” he said.
“Whether it be mid-week or on a weekend, when they’re making the journey in, they’re making an effort to explore hospitality, entertainment and a host of other offers around town.”