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Trust me, history shows Russia will never win this war

Alan Moir cartoon Saturday February 15 2025

Alan Moir cartoon Saturday February 15 2025Credit: Alan Moir

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UKRAINE WAR

As a (retired) academic with significant expertise in low-intensity, asymmetrical and people’s war, I am amazed at the ignorance of the media, military analysts and others who try to predict the winner of the Russia-Ukraine conflict simply on the outcome of the conventional war between the two states. Simply put, Russia cannot win, and Ukraine will eventually emerge victorious.
Why? Because conventional warfare is only one indecisive dimension of conflict. History has proven time and again that conventional supremacy or victory does not mean ultimate victory. It is merely the end of one phase, which merges then into asymmetrical, people’s or guerrilla warfare, which always favours the invaded state.
In other words, even if Russia takes military control of all Ukraine, it then must deal with long-term unconventional warfare which can last for decades. You only have to look at Germany’s defeat in Yugoslavia, the French, then the US defeat in Vietnam. Bullets don’t win. Hearts and minds do. Putin should get out now before a people’s war might spread into Russia at the hands of the Russian people.
Ivan Molloy, Philip Island

US emerging as a colonial power
Trump’s Ukraine deal with Russia completely sidelines the Ukrainian people. His deal with Russia basically amounts to, you keep the territory you have seized since the invasion and we will take Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, and they can take it or leave it. The US was once a great democracy, it is now becoming a great and aggressive colonial power.
Mick Hussey, Beaconsfield

Australia must show support for Ukraine
There is no way that Trump will support an underdog. Clearly, there’s no way that Trump will be honourable towards Ukraine. Europe and its allies must dig deep immediately. Australia is an ally of Ukraine and we must tell them, and dig deep now.
Dennis Richards, Cockatoo

Trump’s deal won’t end well
President Trump has said Ukraine may or may not one day be part of Russia. Putin is still bombing Ukrainian cities to cause as much destruction as possible before any peace talks take place. In the circumstances, why would any Ukrainian contemplate being incorporated into Russia controlled by an ex-KGB thug and warmonger?
Trump wants Ukraine to hand over its rare earth metals to the value of $500 billion because of all the US military aid it received. However, the US has only provided one-fifth of that amount to Ukraine in military and other aid, and has baulked at providing more. This is not a good deal for Ukraine.
If Trump wants to push Ukraine into being incorporated into Russia, then Putin will have all the valuable rare earth metals for nothing, and America will get nothing. Not a good business deal either for Trump.
President Zelensky should remind Trump that in the 1994 Budapest Agreement, the West insisted Ukraine give up over 1700 nuclear warheads for security guarantees, two of the signatories being Russia and America. Let’s not dump Ukraine in the same mud again.
Coke Tomyn, Camberwell

THE FORUM

SRL or not
Infrastructure funding by the federal government will be an important issue at the upcoming federal election. I think it is important for both the prime minister and the opposition leader to tell the public which major infrastructure projects they would fund if they were to win government.
Peter Dutton, in particular, needs to state whether he is committed to providing funding for Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop project through to its completion.
Adrian Hassett, Vermont

Two-tiered largesse
Whatever the individual reader’s view of the Chip Le Grand article about infrastructure (“Rail stand-off is all about politics” 13/2), one point worth highlighting is his accurate observation that Victoria has been “stiffed” by federal governments led by Sydney prime ministers.
The inconvenient truth is that for 27 of the last 33 years, a Sydney prime minister has ruled the federal roost. As Le Grand observes, Victoria has suffered in terms of federal infrastructure support, compared with New South Wales and places further north.
From Paul Keating (“If you don’t live in Sydney you’re camping out”) through to Howard, Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison and Albanese, the provincial focus from the Lodge has been on the harbour city which has a much more developed transport infrastructure than other cities, including a number of new and very expensive rail projects, courtesy, in part of the federal leaders.
Other states, particularly South Australia and Western Australia, have been less favoured in terms of federal funding for projects. With the certainty of either Albanese or Dutton as the federal leader after the next election, the risk continues to emerge of a two-tier country in terms of development – a favoured NSW and Queensland and the less favoured rest of Australia.
Brian Kidd, Mount Waverley

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Big build or none at all?
“Big Build” has become a ‘red flag’ term for the infrastructure spending that Victoria’s Labor government has undertaken.
However, I’ve never heard the term “No Build” to describe the lack of infrastructure projects of previous LNP governments. Foreign investment was among the funding to create any infrastructure which is why Victorians pay tolls to companies on roads that we should fundamentally own.
And, the lack of LNP spending (“economic management”) is why such huge infrastructure enterprises are underway to catch up with the lack of foresight and vision of previous governments.
Jae Sconce, Moonee Ponds

Debt is ideological
A swing against an incumbent government is inevitable, yes, but to conflate the Suburban Rail Loop with state debt is unacceptable (“Premier, the people have spoken”, 12/2).
Debt is not an economic problem; it is an ideological problem. Capital pledged at the commencement of any project, say, the rail loop, will be returned many times over by way of resultant public benefit. Private companies will also benefit from workers being able to travel on the SRL. To not see this, is to believe all public works are a waste of money.
Anders Ross, Heidelberg

Use your vote
Shaun Carney (“Trump is the US president Australia had to have”, 12/2) presents a critical analysis of the performance of the leaders of the Liberal and Labor parties, in particular their reactions to the stresses of the Trump presidency and emerging current issues in our community. His conclusion is we demand political leaders lift their game, or we get some better ones. With the combined primary vote for the two parties hovering around 60 per cent, more than a third of our community agrees with him.
Are the two leaders listening? You bet they are. The same day, The Age reported that while the Prime Minister was wining and dining the independent MPs, Don Farrell was stitching up a rare, bipartisan deal with Peter Dutton. It, in effect, limits the ability of members of the cross bench to effectively represent themselves in elections after 2025, while favouring the two major parties. What to do? If you’re not happy with this, take the advice of Kate Chaney and express your disapproval with your vote.
Jan Downing, Hawthorn East

Uncreative Australia
As recently as 2023 the arm’s length principle that separates government influence from Creative Australia decision making was reasserted. The decision to withdraw the invitation to artist, Khaled Sabsabi, selected by the council and its advisory committee to represent Australia at the Venice Biennale, makes a mockery of both process and policy. It is a sad day for the arts and its place as a mature site of debate and discussion in Australia.
Juliana Engberg, curator of the Australian presentation Venice 2019

McCarthyist atmosphere
The call by a parliamentary committee for universities to adopt a definition of antisemitism “closely aligned” with that of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance should be firmly resisted.
The campaign for this purported definition has been under way for years now, and is clearly intended to stifle any but the most walking-on-eggshells criticism of Israeli conduct towards the Palestinians. The alleged examples of antisemitism proffered often relate not to the Jewish people as such, but rather to Zionism and the state of Israel, which is thereby afforded a degree of immunity from criticism not available to any other country on the planet.
Recent instances of antisemitic conduct in Australia are being weaponised to promote a McCarthyist atmosphere in universities and elsewhere, but with champions of Palestinian freedom rather than alleged Communists as the targets.
John Chiddick, Hawthorn East

Antisemitic culture
As a nurse for many years, and still working, I have been saddened to hear that one of us would dare to express antisemitism as the two Sydney nurses recorded on video have.
It’s very shocking. A shock to the nursing profession, a shock to staff of the hospital, and to the poor patients.
I have experienced a “culture” among hospital staff before; in a nursing home where its culture was laziness.
In this instance, I imagine there might be others at the hospital who knew about the expressed views and were scared to speak up.
Meredith James, Glenhuntly

Keep it green
The lack of tree canopy in numerous suburbs across Melbourne and its health impacts seem to be of little interest to our state and federal governments fixated on ‘Big Australia’ population growth beloved by big business.
Recently, I parked in a residential Brunswick street on a hot day. There were no street trees or nature strips and only the occasional tiny garden. The heat with no respite was terrible. Other than flies, there was no sign of wildlife.
A few days later and still very hot I walked 12 kilometres within the catchment zone of the Camberwell activity centre. The streets were lined with large trees, wide nature strips and the front gardens were lush with large lawns, trees, shrubbery and heaped with greenery, colour, birds and other pollinators. The cooling effect was amazing.
Rather than re-greening suburbs in which nature has been decimated, our government’s goal is to de-green our existing leafy suburbs by allowing boundary-to-boundary development. More density is projected for population growth.
Is trashing our green spaces really a sacrifice we’re willing to make as we cram millions more into Melbourne?
Suzette Miller, Ashburton

Sam Kerr’s costs
I disagree with your correspondent that Sam Kerr’s acquittal gives “a green light to offensive and entitled behaviour” (Letters, “Furthermore”, 14/2). The public humiliation, damage to reputation, anxiety, and legal costs flowing from that court case, would deter most of us.
Lawrie Bradly, Surrey Hills

AND ANOTHER THING

Credit: Illustration: Matt Golding

Trump
Trump: Every day he sets new standards, each one lower than the last.
Tim Durbridge, Brunswick

What hope is there for the people of Ukraine and Palestine when the president of the US determines their future?
Randall Bradshaw, Fitzroy

The pact between Trump and Putin about Ukraine without Ukraine is shaping up as a Munich Agreement 2. History repeating itself, no lessons learnt.
Jerry Koliha, South Melbourne

America had entered a new McCarthy era made more corrosive and vicious by the power of modern technology. RIP “The land of the brave and home of the free”.
Roger Holdway, Sorrento

Donald Trump is going to sell off the Ukrainian people to develop the next Eastern European Trump Park (cheap tickets if you buy Ukraine and Gaza passes at the same time!)
Tom Stafford, Wheelers Hill

Furthermore
Beijing is “angry” we asked why it dropped flares on our planes? That we must stop “provocative behaviour”. When will this hypocrisy stop?
Eu Ming Lim, Glen Waverley

I would remind your correspondent (Letters, “Mainstream racism” 14/2) that World War II and the Holocaust began under Robert Menzies’ watch.
Peter Campbell, Newport

The plummeting primary vote for the two major parties suggests that voters won’t love their move to tweak the donation rules so they can buy more popularity than their competitors.
Julia Thornton, Surrey Hills

With all the noise about DEI, I wonder how we’ll get rid of the real drag on employment by merit – the old boys’ network.
Ross Tanner, Clifton Hill

Your correspondent (Letters, 12/2) asks, “Who hasn’t been embarrassed by their own behaviour on a drunken night out?” Answer: Many millions of people. Probably billions.
William Hennessy, Clifton Hill

Finally
The bipartisanship shown on political donations is reminiscent of when Nissan won Bathurst, beating Ford and Holden. The rules quickly changed.
Peter Thomas, Pascoe Vale

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