The coastal Victorian city with ambitious plans but a big sea-rise problem

In the peak of summer, the Warrnambool foreshore is the place to be as thousands of visitors flock to the seaside city.

The grassy expanses offer plenty of space for picnicking and playing sport or games in the sunshine. The caravan parks, too, fill up quickly in the holidays. Best of all, the relatively sheltered beach is just metres away beyond the dune.

Warrnambool City Council’s director of city growth, Luke Coughlan, by the beach at Warrnambool.Credit: Nicole Cleary

Despite its popularity with locals and holidaymakers, the Warrnambool City Council is planning to transform the foreshore to improve it for locals and with the aim of growing the region’s economy by attracting more tourists.

New sea baths, a raised boardwalk and a redeveloped Surf Life Saving Club are among the ambitious features of the council’s plan, which lays out a vision for the foreshore to 2040 and beyond.

But this preparation for the future comes as Warrnambool faces immense challenges from climate change, rising sea levels and coastal erosion. These challenges are forcing the city’s planners to consider how the coastal city can respond to these increasing threats.

The realities of living in a flood and inundation-prone area spread well beyond the foreshore. More properties may soon be included in flood overlay zones as the council prepares to update its flood planning controls.

The beach at Warrnambool. Credit: Nicole Cleary

The council’s city growth director, Luke Coughlan, said communities across Australia’s coastline were now grappling with the consequences of flooding and rising seas, which were expected to become more acute due to climate change.

“It’s something that is becoming more prominent for coastal councils like ours,” he said.

Coughlan said a desire for better views, the need to replace ageing infrastructure and rising sea-level predictions would influence the eventual design of the proposed raised boardwalk on the foreshore.

The current promenade is well-used in Warrnambool – popular with joggers and walkers – but Coughlan said the promenade was ageing and would need to be replaced in future.

A visual representation of the proposed raised boardwalk in Warrnambool.

“If we get bigger seas, potentially that foredune will continue to erode further, and could get to the promenade and that may be undermined.”

The raised boardwalk concept is among the long-term features of the foreshore plan.

Coughlan said Warrnambool’s population swells by 10,000 people during summer and the council wanted to increase visitation. That might involve adding more tourist attractions, which could eventually include new sea baths.

The sea baths proposal would require funding from other levels of government and further planning. The council’s foreshore report said sea baths would allow for ocean swimming in a safe environment, although it has not yet released any detailed designs.

Seaweed is one of the challenges on the Warrnambool foreshore. Credit: Nicole Cleary

“Sea baths provide an opportunity to swim within the protected waters of the bay,” it said. “They offer accessibility to deeper water swimming throughout the year and help to avoid the built-up seaweed on the shoreline.”

The report also warns that rising sea levels might result in beach erosion and localised flooding. One of the main routes through the foreshore, Pertobe Road, is also at risk from sea-level rise and flooding in the future. Seaweed build-up and overgrown vegetation blocking bay views were also among the challenges that needed to be managed on the foreshore, the report noted.

RMIT honorary principal research fellow Ian McShane said lightweight timber sea baths should be able to withstand rising sea levels.

“I don’t see long-term sea level rise being any particular threat to a facility like that,” he said.

The Merri River in Warrnambool. Credit: Nicole Cleary

McShane, who specialises in social infrastructure including swimming pools, said sea baths in Warrnambool could be a “marvellous asset” for the public.

All but one Warrnambool City councillor voted in favour of the foreshore plan, although most of them raised concerns about some proposals. The councillors noted the plan might change as more detailed work was carried out.

Councillor Richard Ziegeler, who voted against the plan, said the foreshore was covered in “explosive species” that posed a fire threat to residents and holidaymakers.

At its coming meeting on Monday, the Warrnambool City Council will also vote on a flood investigation for South Warrnambool, which recommends introducing new interim controls to guide development in the flood-prone area.

Riverine flooding and sea-level rise is expected to get worse due to climate change. Credit: Nicole Cleary

The investigation report warns some vacant lots may no longer be appropriate for development while in other cases, building plans will need to be adjusted.

“The flood investigation has shown that there is a significant amount of residential land at risk of flooding which currently has no flood-related planning controls,” the report says.

The state government’s current coastal policy factors in sea-level rise of 0.8 metres by 2100. However, the South Warrnambool report also modelled forecasts of 1.2 metres by 2100, which is more in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s predictions.

The report warns there is a risk landowners may obtain permission to develop in an area that is subject to potential flooding before further planning controls are introduced.

The report recommends introducing interim overlays until permanent controls are established. It said the council was aware of landowners’ concerns about the impact on their property prices and ability to obtain insurance.

Planners typically use a benchmark of a one-in-100 flood event to guide development and where homes can be built. The report found 25 properties would be flooded above floor level in a riverine flood and two above the floor in a storm tide under current conditions in the study area.

But in a 1.2-metre sea-level rise scenario in 2100, 97 properties would be flooded above floor level in a riverine flood and 68 would be flooded above the floor in a storm tide.

Former meteorologist and oceanographer Peter Dexter, who lives about 15 minutes from Warrnambool, said the coast was under attack from the sea.

Former oceanographer Peter Dexter, who lives near Warrnambool, wants to see more community awareness about how climate change will impact life on the coast. Credit: Nicole Cleary

“That’s always been the case, and always will be,” he said. “But this is increasing with climate change.”

Dexter is arranging a public event together with Deakin University and the University of the Third Age next month at which coastal experts and councils will discuss how communities can manage coastlines.

He said governments had allowed too much infrastructure and housing to be built near the coast, and now they were coming under threat from rising sea levels. Dexter said councils needed to explain how they were responding to this threat.

“The community needs to know and be more aware of what the dangers are to our coastline and how they can prepare,” he said.

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