Rising number of year 12 graduates heading straight to workforce

A growing number of year 12 graduates are heading straight to the workforce, straying off the traditional path from high school to a trade or university.

The latest Education Department data shows 24.3 per cent of students who completed year 12 in Victoria in 2021 were employed the following year. The 2021 graduates represent the lowest percentage of university enrolment since 2014’s year 12 graduates, in what is partly a reflection of the pandemic and students’ decisions to defer study.

Many young school leavers who choose to work after year 12 are employed in hospitality.Credit: Australian Financial Review

Experts say the trend is indicative of students embracing the ideal of lifelong learning, enrolling in study when they are ready, instead of immediately after high school. But another warns early employment without sufficient training could also leave graduates unprepared for future jobs markets.

Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Paul Guerra said the growth in the number of students heading straight to the workforce was a positive trend that was here to stay.

“It’s got to do with the next generation coming through that have a belief that they’ll have a career of learning which won’t automatically start in TAFE or university, but they will take opportunities along the way to either go back to university or TAFE to get the skills as they need,” he said.

“I think what we’ve got now is an opportunity for choice which didn’t exist 10 years ago ... it’s not choice just when you’re finishing year 12, it could be a choice when you finish your first 10 years of a career. I think we’re going to be richer for the experience.”

But Dr Stephen Billett, a professor of adult and vocational education at Queensland’s Griffith University, said that historically, a direct route to the workforce had been a double-edged sword, with high wages, but little training. In the short term, it often left people underqualified and ill-placed when the jobs market changed.

“For young people who move directly into the workforce without securing structured occupational preparation and certification, there is the risk of engaging in working life that will be always perilous,” he said.

The employment data does not include apprenticeships or traineeships, which attracted 10.2 per cent of 2021 year 12 completers.

A large majority of year 12 completers (72.2 per cent) remained in education and training, with 52.3 per cent doing a bachelor’s degree, down from 56.1 per cent of 2020 leavers. For 2014’s year 12 class, that number was 53.2 per cent.

The student pathways data is collected by the Victorian Department of Education in its annual On Track survey.

In a report, the department said the decrease in bachelor’s degree enrolment was partly explained by an increase in the proportion deferring study, which returned to 10.3 per cent in 2022 after a historic low of 7.5 per cent in 2021.

The most popular field of study for year 12 completers was health (21.5 per cent), followed by society and culture (17.3 per cent) and management and commerce (13.5 per cent). These have been the three most popular subjects for the past six years.

Year 12 completers not in education or training were more likely to be in part-time employment (13.7 per cent) than full-time (10.6 per cent).

The latest data collected is for 2021. The Department of Education surveyed 21,428 year 12 completers between September and November last year and 1571 students who left school in years 10, 11 or 12 in 2021 (non-completers).

The sample included 12,555 female, 10,382 male and 62 respondents who did not identify as either male or female.

To tie into The Age’s annual Schools that Excel awards, we have broken down the data by school.

The series celebrates schools that achieve outstanding advancement in their VCE results. The Age has gathered VCE results data going back 10 years for every secondary school in the state and turned it into an easy-to-use dashboard.

Among 2021 graduates from Officer Secondary College, in Melbourne’s south-east, 42 per cent of those surveyed were employed, compared with 26 per cent who were at university.

John Monash Science School had the highest percentage of its 2021 leavers attending university, at 96 per cent of those surveyed, compared with 2 per cent who were employed.

On Track data for 2021 year 12 completers showed 2.7 per cent were looking for work, compared to the previous year’s 3.9 per cent.

The number of non-completers in employment increased considerably, from 27.2 per cent in 2021 to 37.8 per cent in 2022, with similar increases to part-time and full-time employment.

There was also a decline in the proportion of non-completers looking for work, from 14.6 per cent in 2021 to 9.7 per cent in 2022.

The proportion of non-completers undertaking an apprenticeship or traineeship remained steady, while the number enrolled in a certificate or diploma decreased slightly, from 15.6 per cent in 2021 to 12 per cent in 2022.

The leading jobs for year 12 completers and non-completers have remained largely unchanged since 2017.

Those who completed year 12 are most likely to gain employment as sales assistants and storepeople (30.8 per cent), or in the food, hospitality and tourism industry (26.3 per cent). Non-completers were most likely to enter building and construction (20.6 per cent) and food, hospital and tourism (14.9 per cent).

The number of year 12 completers enrolled in bachelor’s degrees was greater in 2022 for the non-government school sector (59.9 per cent) than for the government school sector (45.6 per cent). However, enrolment in bachelor’s degrees has increased for both sectors.

The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up here.