By Cara Waters
Early vote counting indicates Nick Reece leads the race to be the City of Melbourne’s lord mayor, but a strong showing for the Liberals means Anthony Koutoufides is also in with a chance.
Preferences could help the Carlton AFL great pull off a shock win, although early counting obtained by The Age shows Reece’s team has the strongest primary vote, with Reece receiving 15,342 votes or 24.35 per cent of first preference votes on Monday afternoon.
Incumbent Nick Reece (left) and Anthony Koutoufides are battling it out for the lord mayor title. Credit: The Age
Mariam Riza, the first Melbourne mayoral candidate endorsed by the Liberal Party, is in second place in primary votes, receiving 9219 by 5.30pm on Monday, with all first preference votes counted in Group A.
Koutoufides’ Team Kouta is next, with 8752 votes, while Arron Wood’s team has polled only 6503 votes.
The Greens have polled poorly, with 7239 votes by the evening, as has Labor for Melbourne, led by Phil Reed, with 4165 votes.
Independent Jamal Hakim has polled 2397 votes but may still benefit from strong preference flows.
The Liberal vote is much stronger than analysts had predicted, while the Greens and Labor vote is down on previous years.
One former councillor, who did not want to be identified to freely discuss the results, said that while Reece led on the primary vote, Koutoufides could come “through the middle” on preferences.
As the incumbent lord mayor, Reece was considered by many as the frontrunner, so many candidates directed their preferences away from him and his team. Rivals Wood, Hakim and Ingleton all placed Reece towards the bottom of their preferences allocations.
In contrast, Koutoufides was preferenced favourably by independent Gary Morgan and the Liberals, and if Reece gets more votes than Koutoufides, he will receive the benefit of these preferences.
Preferences do not flow as strongly for the leadership ticket as there is no option to vote “above the line” and have preferences distributed automatically. However, they will be crucial to the result because no candidate is polling enough to win outright on primary votes.
Reece is sitting on 24.35 per cent of first preference votes compared with former lord mayor Sally Capp, who received 31.6 per cent of first preferences in the 2020 election, and Robert Doyle, who got 44.2 per cent in 2016.
A spokesman for Reece said: “We are pleased that our primary vote is well ahead of any others in a Melbourne Cup field of candidates, and [it] shows that our positive campaign strongly resonated with Melbourne’s residents and businesses.
“However, this race will come down to preferences – there is still a long way to go.”
Analyst Kos Samaras, who undertook research for the Wood campaign, said Reece’s polling was a “huge drop” from Capp.
“No one is matching Sally’s performance – she clearly was the standout exception,” he said.
Counting for the councillor ticket is further advanced with Group A ballots – all the ballots received by election day – counted, while those who posted their vote during the week of the election are in Group B.
The Group A ballots show similar voting patterns with Reece’s team leading on 13,243 votes or 22.55 per cent of the primary vote.
The Liberals for Melbourne are in second place on the councillor ticket, with 9415 primary votes or just over 16 per cent of the total.
Koutoufides’ team is next with 7763 votes (13.21 per cent of the primary count), while Wood’s team has polled only 6294 votes (10.72 per cent).
Mariam Riza, the Liberal candidate for lord mayor.Credit: Andrew Campbell
Labor for Melbourne has polled 4167 votes or 7.1 per cent of the primary vote.
The early count makes it likely that long-time councillor Kevin Louey, known as “the kingmaker”, will be re-elected to the council for Team Reece, followed by Owen Guest for the Liberals and Gladys Liu from Team Kouta, while Olivia Ball will be re-elected for the Greens.
Other councillors could include Mark Scott from Team Reece, Andrew Rowse from Innovate Melbourne, Davydd Griffiths from Labor and Rafael Camillo from Team Morgan.
Another former councillor, who did not want to be identified, said Group B tickets generally leant more left as younger voters were more likely to vote later in the elections.
Intaj Khan, who is running for deputy lord mayor on Koutoufides’ ticket, said their campaign had gone well compared with those of Wood and the Greens.
“It is surprising how many people have underestimated us,” he said.
Liberal councillor candidate Guest said the results so far showed two things: “The first is that Melbourne wants a city managed by professionals, and secondly, that both Melburnians and Victorians are ready for a Liberal government.”
Primary votes are still being counted, and an official result is not expected until November 7.
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