Extreme fire danger on Boxing Day could turn three out-of-control Victorian bushfires into fast-moving infernos that threaten homes and lives, authorities have warned.
Emergency Management Commissioner Rick Nugent said on Monday that near-40-degree temperatures and wind up to 100km/h meant almost all the state needed to be on high alert.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll said the bushfire in the Grampians had grown to more than 43,000 hectares and had a 317-kilometre perimeter.
“Boxing Day is going to be a big day for our state,” he said. “This is the beginning of what will be a long, hot and dangerous bushfire season.”
Country Fire Authority chief officer Jason Heffernan said updated modelling for the Wimmera meant a forecast catastrophic rating had been downgraded to the upper end of the extreme level.
However, all fire districts – apart from East Gippsland – now have an extreme fire danger rating on December 26.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll speaks at a State Control Centre press conference on Monday.Credit: Paul Jeffers
“The bush is dry,” Heffernan said. “I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: it is ready to burn.”
Heffernan said he was considering a statewide total fire ban on Boxing Day and would confirm his decision on Tuesday.
State Control Centre spokesman Luke Heagerty later said: “This is the most significant fire danger that the state has seen – across the whole sections of state that we’re talking about – since Black Summer.”
Chris Hardman, the chief fire officer at Forest Fire Management Victoria, said more than 300 firefighters and about 18 aircraft were battling the Grampians bushfire on Monday.
He said planned burns were being used to prepare defences for nearby townships such as Pomonal and Moyston as conditions worsen on December 26 and 27.
“The communities around Dunkeld will very much be in the firing line again,” he said.
Hardman said most bushfire fatalities happened when a dangerous wind change took hold, meaning firefighters were particularly concerned with reinforcing protections on the eastern flank of the Grampians fire.
“But when Mother Nature decides that she’s going to push fire at a rapid rate, it becomes what we call beyond suppression limits. So … occasionally it’s not possible for [firefighters] to make a difference,” he said.
In the Macedon Ranges, the 144-hectare Bullengarook fire near Gisborne remains out of control and could flare up in comings days.
North of Ballarat, a fire under control near Creswick could jump containment lines and threaten the regional city’s northern suburbs, Hardman warned.
On the Bass Coast, crews were using bulldozers to create a perimeter around the smaller bushfire near The Gurdies. “That fire has enormous potential to grow on Boxing Day,” Hardman said.
Nugent said several sheds had already been lost in the 200-hectare blaze.
Nugent said it would be far easier for new dangerous fires to start on Thursday and Friday. He said temperatures in Victoria’s north would be about 38 to 42 degrees and would be accompanied by hot, gusty northerly wind.
“Later in the day, we expect a wind change to occur late afternoon and then the strong and gusty wind from the south-west and west. They could be up to 100km/h,” he said.
Nugent said more than 100 extra firefighting resources had been called in from Tasmania, Queensland, NSW and the ACT. Eighty extra specialist firefighters would be deployed to the Grampians. Seventy firefighting aircraft would be ready to support crews on the ground.
At the weekend, Emergency Services Minister Vicki Ward spoke to her federal counterpart, Jenny McAllister, and was told the Commonwealth was preparing disaster relief payments for those who had been displaced.
The popular tourist town of Halls Gap was evacuated on Saturday as southerly wind pushed an out-of-control fire towards it.
Emergency warnings have since been downgraded to watch-and-act alerts, but Halls Gap CFA said on Monday the road to the town remained closed and residents were unable to return.
Late on Sunday, incident controller Aaron Kennedy said strong south-west winds were causing spot fires to start north of Halls Gap. “As a result, Halls Gap remains closed,” he said.
On Monday afternoon, watch-and-act alerts remained active for Pomonal, Mafeking, Moyston, Great Western, Bellfield, Bellfield Settlement, Flat Rock Crossing, Fyans Creek, Grampians Junction, Barton, Watgania, Lake Fyans, Bellellen, Black Range, Jallukar, Lake Fyans, Londonderry, Rhymney and Willaura North.
Two relief centres remain open in Ararat and Stawell.
In February, fire raced down from the Grampians and consumed 44 homes in Pomonal, destroying one-third of buildings in the tiny town.
“Thankfully, we did not lose a single life, and that is because people are listening to the messaging we have,” Nugent said on Monday.
On Saturday, incident controller Mark Gunning used a town hall meeting in Ararat to remind locals of the Mount Lubra bushfire in 2006, which burnt through about 184,000 hectares, killing Malcolm Wilson, 36, and his 12-year-old son, Zeke, when their car was engulfed by flames at Moyston.
“I’m not comparing the two, but we did see a fire on a really bad day run about 22 kilometres in 16 minutes,” Gunning said. “So that gives you an idea, on those bad days, of what you’ve got to be prepared for.”
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