The battered mental health of many drought-stricken farmers hinges upon a cold front forecast to dump rain across much of the state this weekend.
Rain began falling in parched areas of south-west Victoria on Friday morning, bringing some relief to communities suffering through record-low rainfall over the past 18 months. But rain seemed to bypass other areas.
Farmers hope this cold front signals the start of a wet winter as they desperately seek hay and feed to nourish livestock in dusty, barren paddocks.
Odin Cockerill and Arlie Anson enjoy the wet weather at Gorae West, near Portland, in the state’s south-west. Credit: Nicole Cleary
North central Victorian farmer and agricultural consultant Belinda Steers said farmers throughout Victoria were battling some of the worst conditions they had experienced.
“This is the one rainfall event that will make or break people,” she said. “Mental health-wise I probably haven’t seen farming at such a low point.”
Steers had to buy water for her home after her tanks ran dry. She said even heavy rain in coming days would not result in immediate grass growth because the ground was too cold. But rain would bring hope, Steers said.
“It just gives people that optimism that it can still rain.”
Victorian Farmers Federation president Brett Hosking said farmers in the most drought-stricken areas would need at least 10 millimetres of rain to make a difference, although they were hoping for much more.
“There is a lot of wellbeing hanging on this rainfall event landing in every part of the state,” he said.
Hosking said rainfall would even be good for farmers who had access to irrigation because it meant they would be less reliant on hay to supplement stock feed.
The drought has exacted a savage toll on south-west Victoria.Credit: Eddie Jim
“It means there’s less competition in the hay market.”
At Casterton in western Victoria, sheep farmer Darren Holmberg said about 10 millimetres of rain fell on his property.
“Any rain is good,” he said. “No-one’s grizzling about it, that’s for sure.”
When he spoke to The Age about a year ago, Holmberg said his land was the driest it had been in more than 35 years he had been farming.
Darren Holmberg on his farm near Casterton in June last year.Credit: Nicole Cleary
But on Friday, Holmberg was hoping for much more rain over the weekend.
“We might get 40 millimetres over the next four days,” he said. “If that gets in there, it will get the grass growing.”
Holmberg said a green tinge had returned to the land because the soil was still warm enough for some grass growth.
Bureau of Meteorology figures show Victoria had its seventh-driest May and its warmest autumn on record. Parts of south-west Victoria also experienced record-low rainfall for the 18-month period ending in May.
Farmers across Victoria are dealing with some of the driest conditions they’ve experienced. Credit: Joe Armao
On Friday morning, bureau meteorologist Daniel Sherwin-Simpson said Kaniva in the far west near the South Australian border had already received 4 millimetres of rain and there were showers in the Wimmera and western Mallee.
Other drought-affected areas, including Warrnambool in the south-west, received more than 2 millimetres.
Over the long weekend, Sherwin-Simpson said, the state’s south-west could expect up to 30 millimetres of rain, compared to 5 to 10 millimetres in the Mallee. About 10 to 15 millimetres was forecast for the Wimmera.
“It will be good news,” he said.
In the alpine ranges, almost 40 millimetres of rain was forecast for the long weekend but some of that was expected to fall as snow, with the ski season officially beginning on Saturday.
Sherwin-Simpson said communities along the south-west coast, including Portland, Warrnambool and Apollo Bay, were likely to see some of the highest rainfall after enduring some of their driest conditions on record.
Jodie Anson said it was a great joy and relief to see rain falling on her property in Gorae West, near Portland in the state’s far south-west. “It was fantastic,” she said. “We just need more of it.”
Anson said her property had been particularly dry and dusty before it started raining again.“You could see cracks in the ground,” she said. “It’s nice to not have dust floating around everywhere.”
Sheep farmer Duncan Barber on his Coliban Park property near Redesdale in Victoria. Credit: Alex Coppel
But Sherwin-Simpson said more rain was needed to help farmers recover from drought.
“We’ll need a number of these systems to move through over the winter period,” he said.
The long-range forecast for June is trending slightly towards a wetter than average month. “It’s looking positive seeing this system come through in the early part of June. So, if we get another one or two of these systems we’ll definitely be looking at something wetter than average.”
However, the outlook for the entire winter is neutral.
On Friday afternoon, Duncan Barber, who is based in Redesdale near Bendigo, said he was yet to receive any rain.
“It’s bitter cold and blowing a gale,” he said.
With the radar indicating clouds were heading his way, Barber was hopeful his property would receive its first rain since April 25.
“It looks like there’s some coming,” he said. “But I won’t get excited until my hair is wet.”
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