Get ready, Queensland. We’re about to move into permanent campaign mode

Steven Miles has turned political convention on its head. Even if he doesn’t lead Labor to a fourth consecutive term of government, his departure from the accepted political norm has given apparatchiks everywhere a lesson in how to make an old administration appear new again. And it sets the scene for what will undoubtedly be Queensland’s first four-year election campaign – starting on Monday.

Not only has the Liberal National Party been outfoxed, David Crisafulli has struggled in the spotlight, despite displaying the qualities that have long eluded the Queensland conservatives – discipline, humility and patience. Crisafulli is a well-drilled opposition leader, and may well be premier next week, but he stepped into the spotlight virtually untested. Unlike Miles, it appears he has not endured the bruising internal battles that prove your mettle in politics, nor does he have the support base and resources enjoyed by Labor. Power is nothing without control.

In one of the many glowing, pre-election, personal profiles, Crisafulli was quoted saying the LNP had made “no mistakes” in opposition (he made similar boasts today). As a former political reporter, I was puzzled by this, and used the first debate to ask Crisafulli when he had last fought his colleagues for something he believed in. He said “every day in leadership you have to stand up for things, every single day”, then insisted his team was united and achieved consensus in decision-making.

David Crisafulli, pledging a statewide crime victim advocate service from Townsville, faced a third-straight day of questions about whether abortion laws will change if the LNP wins government.Credit: Matt Dennien

Also in the debate, some 22 days ago now, I asked Crisafulli how he could govern for all Queenslanders when the LNP had so few female frontbenchers and so many candidates rallying to restrict a woman’s right to choose. He said there would be no change to abortion laws – when prodded, he agreed he would need to stare down those in his party who wanted reform – and insisted there were female candidates in winnable seats. He may well be right.

As ugly as it has been, the abortion questions kept coming. Crisafulli’s inability to settle the issue and move on leaves open the perception that the LNP simply can’t. It also raises deeper questions of conviction, of both leadership and beliefs, as well as that other quality that has long evaded Queensland conservatives – unity. How can it be that Labor, having toppled its long-term leader, tilted Left in caucus, and carried the usual union baggage and so-called crises into the campaign, now appears the most united?

Speaking of conviction of beliefs, Labor rebadged two policies from the Greens that it previously ridiculed, in the form of 50¢ public transport fares and free school lunches. Those policies have been the most talked-about announcements I can recall on a campaign, and they go to the various polls and surveys that suggest cost of living is the biggest issue for voters in 2024, not crime as the LNP thought (and which Crisafulli reluctantly staked his premiership on). Cynical? Populist? Responsive? Maybe all three. But it has successfully drawn attention to Miles and his bold claim to be a new leader with a new government.

Wary of Labor scare campaigns about long-ago LNP government cuts, Crisafulli vowed to honour the state budget, and keep 50¢ fares, as he continued his small-target strategy. But then Labor abandoned its fiscal principles by announcing it would borrow to pay for its flashier election commitments, which meant the LNP would technically make bigger cuts to afford its promises. The scare campaigns continued, and will continue throughout the next term if Labor is consigned to opposition. What’s more, Crisafulli’s ambitious pledge to deliver projects on time and on budget will ensure greater scrutiny, including, ironically, if the LNP decides to rebuild the Gabba for the 2032 Games, something Miles wanted to do but ultimately gave up on.

If the polls prove correct, Labor may have belatedly stemmed the flow of votes to the Greens in Brisbane, and, through the abortion debate, disrupted preference flows in the regional areas contested by the LNP, Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation. But the earlier, pre-poll ballots will favour an actual new government, meaning that Saturday night will now be a seat-by-seat, party-by-party game of parliamentary Jenga to see what stacks up.

To his critics, Miles has long been derided as “Giggles”, the blonde-haired policy wonk and social media dad, still awkward in the shadow of Annastacia Palaszczuk and a tired Labor government. As the election drew closer, Miles somehow leaned in to the spotlight, while Crisafulli stuck to the steady course he laid out long ago. Today, Miles didn’t even try to hide the laughter – on a jetski, in a supercar, eating a Yatala pie – as he chased last-minute votes. He was overjoyed to have the opportunity to slam Crisafulli for an election-eve policy clarification – on crime, no less – while the LNP leader continued to call on voters to give Queensland a fresh start.

Steven Miles rides a jet ski on the Broadwater at Southport on the final day of the election campaign.Credit: AAP

I don’t know how we got here, I won’t predict the outcome, and I can’t say what the next parliament will look like. But, rest assured, Queensland is moving into permanent campaign mode, with a federal election also due within months, an electorate divided, and political convention thrown out the window. It has been a challenge for the LNP to take government, but the conservatives’ even bigger challenge in Queensland has always been staying in government. Labor will be chasing gold in 2028 and the right to govern through the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games. A sprint just turned into a marathon.

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