‘The new Redfern’: The areas set to be gentrified next

Lakemba, Fairfield and Mount Druitt are among the Sydney suburbs tipped to become “the new Redfern” through gentrification.

The three western Sydney suburbs, all centres of migrant populations, are among the suburbs with the cheapest rent in Sydney, despite having relatively good public transport and infrastructure.

Fairfield, Lakemba and Liverpool could all be gentrified next, some experts say.Credit: Graphic: Stephen Kiprillis

An analysis of suburbs with at least 10 properties listed for rent, conducted by CoreLogic, showed Cabramatta, Fairfield, Warwick Farm and Jamisontown all had median rents under $500. Rent in major areas such as Liverpool, Lakemba and Penrith averaged below $540.

Those figures are well below the median rent across Sydney, which stands at $816 for houses and $723 for units.

The 20 cheapest suburbs with a significant rental market were concentrated around three LGAs: Canterbury-Bankstown, Fairfield and Penrith.

Some of these areas also recorded large increases in rent in the 12 months to March across some of the areas with the cheapest rent. Cabramatta had a 6.9 per cent increase; Fairfield rents rose by 8 per cent increase; and rentals in Mount Druitt were up 4.2 per cent.

Combined with low vacancy rates, the data indicates the housing crisis could be forcing residents to look at areas they would not have considered previously.

And while the figures might show where renters could still pick out a bargain, they also indicate the areas of Sydney that are most susceptible to gentrification, where an area’s residents are replaced by wealthier people moving in and changing the character of the region.

The presence on the list of Lakemba and Liverpool, areas with historically high migrant populations that have remade these areas in their images, raises the possibility that Sydney’s west could become unrecognisable as more affluent groups move in.

CoreLogic executive research director Tim Lawless said a large part of gentrification was transport infrastructure, singling out the coming expansion of the metro line to Bankstown, which will take in suburbs on the list such as Wiley Park, Punchbowl and Lakemba, as likely to fuel this process in the city’s south-west.

“I think as Sydney’s population grows and affordability remains so challenging, I’d be very surprised if we didn’t see some sort of gentrification, or a more broad-based mix of the population becoming representative in these areas,” he said.

He dismissed the idea that renters would be reluctant to move into these areas due to misconceptions about the communities there.

“Having an area that’s on the train line, that’s within a certain proximity of the CBD, it’s such a strategic location that I think any sort of reluctance around the history of that area, or perceptions of it being an ethnic enclave, is probably something that’s going to be quite short-lived.”

But Lawless was also sceptical that the process would bring about a “fundamental change in the character” of these areas. Instead, he says the areas could expect to see “the best of both worlds”.

“People are always looking for opportunities to live more affordably, to rent more affordably, to buy more affordably. Investors are always looking for opportunities for growth. And so a combination of these things probably means these areas won’t stay affordable forever.”

Rae Dufty-Jones, a professor in urbanism at the University of Sydney, pointed to two examples of inner-city suburbs that had undergone a process of gentrification as examples of what could be coming for some parts of south-west Sydney.

She said Redfern and Paddington had both become gentrified, at an “enormous cost to those living there who did not own land or property”.

“The people who own property in that area will always end up net beneficiaries of gentrification. It’s the people who rent, and are often the poorest, who are the net losers and are further marginalised,” she said.

“This process has, and will, displace those who most need access to public transport, need access to good quality public health and other social infrastructure. It could actually displace them into suburbs that have never had that kind of infrastructure and are unlikely to see that change.”

Dufty-Jones agreed the coming opening of the Bankstown metro line was propelling the process, saying it would send land values “through the roof”.

“And it’s not that the government shouldn’t be investing in infrastructure like that, it’s [that] they should consider how the value uplift of these major investments are captured and how they are shared amongst the community,” she said.

“It’s about how the windfalls are distributed.”

The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up here.