Could what happened in LA occur here? Short answer: Yes

The full scale of the wildfire disaster in Los Angeles is still emerging, but the world has been shocked by the ferocity of the blaze and the extent of the devastation.

And yet, we knew this would happen eventually. The deferment of the impacts of climate change has ended. But to see entire suburban neighbourhoods destroyed by an out-of-control bushfire triggers questions in the minds of many Australians. Could something similar happen in our major cities – and how prepared are we? The answers are: yes, and not very.

Bushfire in the ’burbs: A teenager looks on as wildfires engulf houses in the streets of Altadena during the Los Angeles inferno.Credit: Bloomberg

The areas north of LA have always been at high fire risk. That’s because of the mix of the fuels from trees and plants and the uneven terrain; canyons and ridges can accelerate fire. But in this situation, several things happened at once – all of which are bad.

We had the amazingly strong Santa Ana winds, in conjunction with a very dry landscape. Rains prior to the recent drought added to the grassy fuels making the landscapes around LA a firebomb. These strong, dry winds ensured that the fires grew extraordinarily fast. Fire suppression capacity was quickly overwhelmed.

In a place such as California, with its enviable aerial firefighting capacity, fires can usually be contained rapidly. But this one grew at a fantastic rate. It then got into the houses and all the way down the coast. Shockingly, it crossed from the “intermix” housing on the border of bushland and city, and moved into suburban environments. It was an incredibly fast escalation.

All of these things aren’t unexpected. We know fires are burning faster and hotter and quicker, and fire seasons are getting longer. After all, these LA fires happened in the US winter. So, we knew these things were going to happen. Still, it is confronting when they do.

But could it happen in a major city in Australia? The short answer: yes. We don’t have Santa Ana winds, of course, but we do have downslope winds (a wind that comes over a topographic barrier such as a mountain range). They are often very dry and warm and can move quickly.

Bushfires burn through the Canberra suburb of Duffy in 2003. Credit: Pat Scala

There is the possibility for fires to burn into Australian suburbs. It happened in Canberra in 2003. And it could happen again in a major city such as Sydney or Melbourne. We have all the ingredients.

If you have the wrong wind and the wrong fire and the wrong time, a fire can be driven very quickly into an urban area. The degree to which it would spread depends on the suburban landscape and how well-prepared the area is. If a suburb has older housing stock with older gardens, for instance, it’s absolutely ripe for a fire to spread quickly. If you have more modern housing stock (which is usually better at defending against ember attack), and the houses are more spaced apart and the gardens are clearer, then you might be OK.

When fire gets into suburbs, the damage can be variable. Some houses might burn down and others may survive. But the worst-case scenario is what we call “house-to-house ignition”, where the houses themselves become the fuel.

Australia is not well-prepared for scenarios such as this. But rather than be fatalistic and assume urban areas are open game for wildfires, effort is needed from all levels of government and community to reduce the risk of fires impacting suburban and semi-suburban areas.

That means better boundaries between houses and keeping fuel loads low. It also means households, councils and fire authorities having a plan for when fires hit. This may mean implementing planning rules to enforce safer gardens or the clearing of bushland behind homes. But such measures will be controversial in many cases.

Gaining public support will require designing landscape-scale firebreaks that are attractive and sympathetic to biodiversity. Studies suggest that achieving fire-ready cities requires a mix of research, education, incentivisation and penalties.

We also need to ask: how bushfire-aware are city residents?

So much messaging around having a plan – knowing where to go and leaving early – has been directed at rural and bushland residents. Many people in suburban areas may not consider themselves vulnerable and might not have a plan at all.

Many regional and rural areas in Australia have bushfire places of last resort – safe places for the community to go when all other bushfire plans have failed. The LA tragedy shows we need these places in cities. People also need a plan on how to get there (by walking or cycling, where possible), so traffic jams don’t ensue as everyone tries to escape.

People should be educated about what to expect at the evacuation point when you arrive. Where possible, they should take their own food, water and medicines and include pets in their plan.

And the planning discussion should include residents in fire-prone areas installing their own specially designed fire shelters at home if they can afford it.

Global warming is making bushfires in Australia more frequent and severe. As bushfires become more prevalent, home insurance costs are increasing. That will affect the cost of living and the broader economy.

The LA fires show when it comes to climate change, there’s nowhere to hide. Around the world, authorities and communities must overhaul their assumptions about bushfire risk and preparedness. That includes people living in cities. Kicking the can down the road won’t work. The crisis is already here.

David Bowman is a professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania.

An earlier version of this piece was published in The Conversation.