Trump has sent bitcoin soaring. Is it the right time to invest?

Bitcoin is back in a big way. After a pretty miserable start to the year, the world’s most well-known digital asset has staged a sharp rebound.

In the past month alone, its surged more than 35 per cent to reclaim the key psychological level of $US100,000 ($155,000), smashing most investors’ expectations – especially amid massive economic uncertainty and downgraded economic outlooks.

So, what’s driving the resurgence, and where might it head next?

Trump’s support of bitcoin and crypto in general has sent prices soaring in the last month.Credit: Bloomberg

At first glance, the rebound aligns with a broader risk-on shift in financial markets. President Trump’s more conciliatory tone on trade, marked by the announcement of a new framework with the UK and the reopening of talks with China, has certainly helped boost investor confidence.

For something as sentiment driven as bitcoin, that kind of backdrop is usually enough to spark a rally. But chalking the entire move up to trade headlines misses the mark.

Bitcoin isn’t a consumer good caught in the middle of tariff talks, nor is it a cross-border commodity like copper or oil. The tariff narrative was never really a powerful story the crypto sphere.

We believe Bitcoin could reach somewhere between $US150,000 to $US200,000 by the year’s end – assuming all key catalysts align.

If anything, bitcoin’s reaction to the “Liberation Day” tariffs was relatively muted compared to equities, and the reality is its sell-off started way back in January, long before April 2 came around.

A more plausible driver behind the rally is the upcoming Trumpcoin-holders’ dinner on May 22. Why? While the event may appear to be focused on Trump’s controversial memecoin, its broader significance is the signal that cryptocurrency is re-entering the US political conversation.

The dinner raises the prospect of a revival of campaign-era promises, including looser regulatory oversight and broader support for digital assets.

With many attendees likely to be prominent crypto advocates, there is a credible possibility that Trump could use the platform to signal a renewed pro-crypto stance. Should that materialise, it could provide a stronger foundation for bitcoin’s current rally.

Another notable undercurrent supporting bitcoin’s price action is the accelerating de-dollarisation trend. In April, bitcoin appeared to benefit from capital rotation associated with “sell-America” positioning and growing scepticism around US monetary dominance.

While still in early stages, this narrative is gaining traction among investors seeking neutral assets in an increasingly fragmented global system. Bitcoin’s finite supply, global accessibility, and resistance to centralised control make it uniquely suited to ride this wave of monetary realignment.

These bullish catalysts are being reflected in capital flows. Global bitcoin ETFs saw $US2.9 billion in new flows in April, a stark reversal from February and March when more than $US5 billion in total was pulled from the space.

Australian bitcoin ETFs have also attracted $148 million in inflows so far this year – more than double the $68 million recorded over the same period last year. But unlike the US, Australian investors have been consistent net buyers of bitcoin ETFs throughout 2025. In April, local bitcoin ETFs saw $20.5 million in new flows, up sharply from $6.9 million in March 2025.

So, should investors be rushing to buy bitcoin? Is it truly “headed for the moon”, as crypto enthusiasts often claim? Well, as always with crypto, there are still meaningful risks to consider.

Regulatory inconsistency remains a major challenge, with policy frameworks fragmented across jurisdictions and subject to sudden change. Political reversals are also a persistent risk, particularly as digital assets re-enter the spotlight.

On the market side, bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets – especially technology and growth stocks – means it remains sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment. In a low-growth, high-volatility environment, or if central banks turn more hawkish in response to tariff-driven inflation, bitcoin could come under renewed pressure.

But that being said, given the strength of the above catalysts, we do think the potential for bitcoin to achieve a higher price has become more evident.

In terms of price targets, we believe bitcoin could reach somewhere between $US150,000 to $US200,000 by the year’s end – assuming all key catalysts align, i.e. positive political engagement, institutional rotation, and a favourable macroeconomic environment.

Ultimately, while investing in cryptocurrencies will always carry a degree of intrinsic risk, we believe bitcoin presents a diversification opportunity – particularly for Australian investors not yet exposed to the asset class.

And for those unfamiliar with the complexities of crypto exchanges and decentralised finance, bitcoin ETFs offer a straightforward, regulated entry point, removing the technical barriers associated with managing digital wallets and private keys.

Investors can also access bitcoin exposure through the same online brokerage platforms they use for equities and traditional ETFs, making it easy to integrate digital assets into an existing portfolio.

Justin Lin is an investment analyst at Global X ETFs.

• Advice given in this article is general in nature and not intended to influence readers’ decisions about investing or financial products. They should always seek their own professional advice that takes into account their own personal circumstances before making any financial decisions.

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