Liberal contenders share Thai dinner as Ley’s leadership is tested

As the net zero issue blew up on Monday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s two leadership rivals talked politics and the future of the Liberal Party over a pad Thai dinner.

Angus Taylor, Andrew Hastie and a group of conservatives met at Chong Co – a restaurant in the Kingston Foreshore precinct in Canberra, below the penthouse where Malcolm Turnbull once met allies to discuss Tony Abbott’s fate as prime minister.

Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor in the House of Representatives on Tuesday. Their colleague Colin Boyce follows a division through binoculars.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Unlike Abbott, Ley is not facing a co-ordinated, near-daily campaign of destabilisation to install an anointed rival. Instead, personal misjudgements and the populist rebellions of Hastie, Barnaby Joyce and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price have undermined her and sucked confidence from the party room.

The meal on Monday evening masked tensions in the right over which contender – Taylor or Hastie – is next in line to take over from Ley if she sinks further in polls next year.

MPs do not want to challenge before then. Ley may well recover, but authority is difficult to regain once it’s diminished.

Sources familiar with the dinner said the duel between Hastie and Taylor was not explicitly addressed, even though some of the attendees have firm views on who they back. Jokes were made about favourable coverage individual journalists were appearing to give one or the other. Such dinners are not uncommon, but the lively debate on Taylor vs Hastie, and Ley’s nightmare week, made the timing notable.

“There is no consensus,” said one senior right-winger, who was not at the dinner, when asked who might take over from Ley.

Both options carry baggage.

Taylor, the 59-year-old former McKinsey guru, and Hastie, the 43-year-old lone-wolf soldier, represent different generations. Taylor is a disciple of the Howard era, whereas Hastie is a national conservative paying close attention to cultural movements, often via social media, shaking up right-wing politics.

They both want to become leader this term. Hastie has more time on his hands while Taylor has been emphasising to colleagues his intent to save the party from existential collapse.

Taylor lost to Ley in a tight 29-25 leadership ballot in May. He is seen as the safer option and has positioned himself as the adult in the room as Hastie, Price and Joyce have broken away.

As right-wing critics point out, Taylor was the energy minister when Scott Morrison’s government signed up to net zero. Taylor was undermined by Peter Dutton but, as shadow treasurer, still had responsibility for the Coalition’s poor economic offering at the last election, which could be exposed by the party’s election review, expected as soon as December.

Taylor is viewed by his critics as sharp but lacking in political X-factor. In contrast, Hastie’s camp cast him as a break from the Howard era, more willing to embrace arguments around migration and working class economic interests, generating more enthusiasm among voters.

Yet his excesses – including widely condemned remarks about abortion last week and echoing an infamous anti-immigration speech – have spooked his colleagues and made the Hastie leadership experiment less likely in the short run.

Timing is a key factor. If Ley crumbles soon – many Coalition MPs still hope she settles the net zero issue and gets clear air – Taylor will benefit. If the leadership becomes vacant closer to the 2028 election, Hastie will have had time to prove his seriousness to MPs who have questioned his maturity. Whether Ley is challenged or voluntarily steps down will also make a difference.

Hastie’s support base is led by a small but significant grouping of younger right-wingers. They are mostly on the outer and have minimal contact with Ley or her office, at whom they lob occasional grenades. Taylor’s likely backers, meanwhile, are playing key roles in the current show.

The moderates and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction control about half the party. NSW moderates led by Andrew Bragg and Hawke’s group have sparred with Taylor for years. There is a chance they hold their nose and back Taylor – possibly with a moderate such as Tim Wilson as deputy – to keep Hastie away from the leadership.

MPs have recently pointed to deputy leader Ted O’Brien, who is factionally unaligned, as a dark horse who has been building relationships across the divide and keeping his hands clean in the net zero debate.

As one well-placed MP said, the right faction understands that Ley must be allowed to succeed or fail on her own terms rather than be dragged down by faceless men in a party already seen as overly blokey.

“Nobody’s rolling anyone soon,” they said.

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