Federal election 2025 as it happened: Dutton faces inflation rate gotcha; Welcome to Country debate dominates campaign

Thanks for following our live coverage today, this is where we’ll wrap things up. Here are some of Tuesday’s big moments.

• With just four more sleeps until polling closes, Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton started the day in each other’s home cities – Albanese in Brisbane and Dutton in Sydney.
• Dutton’s photo opportunity in Gilmore ended abruptly after protesters against the Coalition’s nuclear plan disrupted the visit.
• Dutton doubled down on remarks labelling the ABC and The Guardian “hate media”, calling them “biased” and “activists”.
• A teenage girl was arrested after a late-night graffiti blitz at one of Dutton’s Queensland offices. Red paint and posters were splashed across the building in Arana Hills, in Brisbane’s north.
• Australia’s election integrity watchdog is investigating a video showing volunteers for Monique Ryan saying they were directed to vote for her by organisations tied to China’s foreign influence operation.
• Albanese was once again out among the people, taking a walk through a food hall in Brisbane. The prime minister was joined by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, the Labor candidate for Moreton, Julie-Ann Campbell, and his fiancee, Jodie Haydon.

Will the major parties achieve an outright majority, or will crossbenchers be the kingmakers?

Voters are increasingly rejecting the Labor/Coalition duopoly by opting to vote for independents and minor parties. That makes the outcome harder to predict and increases the likelihood of a hung parliament.

Three ways to federal election victory 2025.Credit: Nathanael Scott

To help understand the numbers game that will decide the election, let’s walk through the pathways to the three possible outcomes: an outright Coalition majority, an outright Labor majority and a minority government.

Read more here.

Adam Bandt has responded to the prime minister’s criticism of Max Chandler-Mather, calling Labor’s visit to Griffith “pretty brave”.

Anthony Albanese visited the Chandler-Mather-held seat earlier today, telling reporters the Greens housing spokesman had held up investments in the Housing Australia Future Fund and Help to Buy scheme.

Greens leader Adam Bandt.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Speaking on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing, Bandt swung back at Labor’s policy of “unlimited rent rises” and “$180 billion in handouts to other property investors”.

“The experts are saying that Labor and Liberals’ housing policies are a dumpster fire of bad ideas,” he said.

“As to Max, Max Chandler-Mather is the member for renters and first-time buyers.

“He has done more than anyone in parliament for renters and first-time buyers, including through the negotiations the prime minister was referring to, securing an extra $3 billion for community and social housing.”

Anthony Albanese has been asked whether the election of Canada’s Liberal prime minister, Mark Carney, is a sign of things to come for his government.

The Liberal Party of Canada, led by Carney – a relative political novice – has won a fourth term of office after the former central banker spoke out strongly against US President Donald Trump.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.Credit: AP

Asked whether Carney’s ascent to the top position was a good omen for him, Albanese said it will be up to Australians to decide.

Albanese said Carney was determined to represent the national interests of Canada just as he had “stood up for Australia’s national interest”.

“I look forward to building on the relationship that I’ve already built with Mark Carney,” he said.

“We have a close relationship … we share a lot in common, and I congratulate Mark Carney.”

They’d never say it in public, but at every election, both major parties identify a handful of seats they expect to lose.

This time around, Labor is downbeat about hanging on to the Melbourne seat of Aston and the Sydney seat of Bennelong, while Coalition strategists concede the seats of Bradfield (northern Sydney) and Wannon (western Victoria) look tough to hold.

But then there are the seats where everyone expects a proper contest, and by the end of the campaign, even once-safe seats can look chancy if the ground game by the opposition is good.

Here are 12 seats we think are worth watching this campaign.

Liberal senator James Paterson isn’t pulling any punches in the last few days of the campaign, weighing in on the corflute wars engulfing Kooyong.

On 3AW, Paterson said sign vandalism was “worse in teal seats than any other seats in the country”.

“It’s prolific in Goldstein as well, targeting [Liberal candidate] Tim Wilson’s signs, and I’m up in New South Wales at the moment and it’s been prolific in Wentworth.”

Campaign corflutes damaged in marginal electorates in the run-up to this year’s federal election.Credit: Sam Mooy, Supplied.

Paterson said in traditional Labor-Liberal contests, corflute vandalism occurred “nowhere near as much as in teal seats”.

Asked by host Jacqui Felgate why he thought this was, Paterson was blunt.

“My observation [in] dealing with teal volunteers and supporters is that they think they are better than everyone else. They think they are morally superior to everyone else, and I think they think that justifies behaviour that you don’t normally get in other seats.”

A former premier has become caught up in the volatile contest for the seat of Kooyong in Melbourne’s leafy inner east, telling 3AW that corflutes on his front fence were vandalised.

Jeff Kennett, Victoria’s premier from 1992 to 1999, said he displays signs of his preferred candidate every election.

“In this case, it’s Amelia [Hamer], and one of those has been vandalised,” he said.

Former premier of Victoria Jeff Kennett and Liberal candidate for Kooyong Amelia Hamer.Credit: Instagram

Kennett was also asked if Peter Dutton could remain opposition leader if the Coalition lost Saturday’s election.

“I don’t believe the polls,” he said.

Kennett said he expected the election would be fought “seat by seat, rather than an overall swing”.

“And I think you’ll find some surprises here in Victoria,” he said.

Kennett’s interview at times veered into sounding like a political campaign for Hamer, but he did make one concession when asked about Liberal missteps.

“I don’t think either campaign, and particularly ours, has been as I would have conducted it,” he said.

Dutton’s visit to the NSW South Coast seat of Gilmore was looking good on Tuesday.

Local swinging voter Michael King ambled across an oval determined to speak to Dutton, saying he’d backed Labor in the previous election, but now believed Dutton “stands up for Aussies” and it was time to “give Albo the elbow”.

Was this a ray of light for Dutton’s campaign?

Alas for the Liberal leader, it was not.

Just as King was getting into full flight, Labor-aligned protesters strode onto the grass and pulled the press pack’s attention away to protest about the Coalition’s nuclear power plans.

It was a symbol of the Coalition’s fortunes in the polls, which has ebbed during the campaign. This masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor has found Labor’s primary vote has risen and Coalition support has fallen, giving the government a lead of 53.5 per cent in two-party terms.

Nevertheless, Dutton is adamant that his campaign is going well and the published polls are wrong.

He argues his party’s internal investigations have him on track to form government.

We’ll find out if he’s right on Saturday night.

As Albanese and Dutton criss-cross the nation, we are following where they are going and what they are pledging in each electorate.

Find out more in our interactives below.

Here is a look at the places the leaders have visited.

And below, you can see how much money they have promised for various causes.

Education Minister Jason Clare has encouraged young people to watch Adolescence, following an endorsement for the Netflix series from the prime minister.

Clare said the series, about a teenager who murders a fellow student, was “extremely powerful”.

“I’d welcome more young men seeing it,” he said in a statement.

The Netflix drama Adolescence has fuelled the debate about toxic influences on young males.

The Education Department has doused any suggestions the show would be screened widely in Australian schools, after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer indicated the series would be shown in the United Kingdom.

A spokesperson said that was a matter for state governments and the independent school sector.

The hit show has sparked a conversation around the world about how to protect children from violent misogyny and other harmful content on social media.

Anthony Albanese told reporters Adolescence was “captivating” while visiting a community housing provider in Gosford on Monday to promise $20 million for a new local frontline family and sexual violence service.

“I don’t know if you’ve seen Adolescence, I encourage anyone to have a look at it,” Albanese said.

“This is something we need to have conversations about.”