The real winners and losers from Albanese’s handouts

Almost two-thirds of all Australians, led by single parents and middle-income families, have gained up to $2500 through tax cuts, childcare and parental leave since the Albanese government came to office, new analysis has revealed.

Before an election that will be dominated by cost-of-living issues, the work by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods shows high-income earners have borne the brunt of the government’s policy prescriptions since 2022 while easing some of the financial pain on the rest of the population.

The analysis takes into account the government’s rejigged stage 3 tax cuts, which delivered tax relief to all taxpayers. The original version of the tax cuts did not help those earning less than $45,000.

It also includes the government’s increase in Commonwealth Rent Assistance, JobSeeker, parental leave, parental payments and its overhaul of childcare. It does not include its electricity subsidies, which were extended for another six months in Tuesday’s budget, nor the small tax cuts planned to begin from mid-2026.

The analysis shows 64 per cent of all people have been winners from the government’s changes, 14 per cent have been losers, while for the remaining 22 per cent there has been no change.

Middle-income Australians have gained the most from the policies, gaining $1730 through lower taxes and larger direct assistance. Among this group, couples with children have gained more than $2500, partly due to the government’s reforms to childcare.

Policy changes since Anthony Albanese came to office have largely benefited low and middle income families, new research has found.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

Single parents on middle incomes have gained a similar amount. The poorest paid single parents have gained $1708.

But the highest 20 per cent of all income earners have gone backwards by $1408 over the same period. High-income couples with children have lost almost $3300, largely due to the less generous stage 3 tax cuts put in place by the government.

The ANU centre’s principal research fellow, Ben Phillips, said it was clear the government had looked to support the lowest paid through its reforms.

“It’s been a conscious decision. The cost-of-living measures have been clearly targeted at middle-income and low-income earners,” he said.

“One dollar is worth a lot more to a person on a low income. If you’re going to throw money at cost-of-living measures, it makes sense to target low-income earners because it is going to mean more to them than someone on a much higher income.”

Despite the figures, the government is under attack for not doing more for low-income earners in this week’s budget.

The St Vincent de Paul Society, one of the country’s largest charities, said there was minimal financial relief for millions of households who were living in poverty and struggling to meet daily living costs.

“The situation of people doing it tough will barely be affected by this budget,” the charity’s national president, Mark Gaetani, said.

“Inequality in Australia is at a 20-year high, with single parents hit the hardest. The best way to address inequality is to properly reform taxation and increase income-support payments.”

The analysis does not account for the lift in inflation, higher mortgage repayments or the acceleration in rents faced by most Australians over the past three years.

The Coalition has accused the government of overseeing the largest collapse in living standards in recent history, with Liberal leader Peter Dutton saying grocery prices alone had gone up 30 per cent under Labor.

In a heated debate in parliament, Dutton said the coming election campaign would be defined by pressures facing Australian families.

“This election will be about a difference that people make between a government that’s going to continue to ramble along and put us into further debt, and to make it harder for families and to crush small businesses, and a party, the Coalition, that has a plan for our country to get it back on track,” he said.

But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the economy was starting to improve while inflation had more than halved during the government’s term.

“Living standards were falling. Now we see a per capita increase in living standards making
a difference for Australians,” Albanese said.

“Interest rates had started to rise before the last election. Now they have started to fall before the
coming election.”

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest inflation pressures are easing.

The monthly inflation rate for the year to February eased to 2.4 per cent, down slightly from 2.5 per cent in January.

The measure of underlying inflation also eased, to 2.7 per cent from 2.8 per cent. It was the lowest measure of underlying inflation in almost four years.

The cost of building new homes, which peaked at more than 21 per cent in mid-2022, has fallen to just 1.6 per cent.

Commonwealth Bank senior economist Stephen Wu said the figures suggested inflation was on track to be lower than anticipated by the Reserve Bank, which holds its next meeting to debate interest rates next week.

“That leaves us with a higher conviction for a May rate cut. But we do not think it is enough to see the RBA deliver rate relief at its April meeting,” he said.

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