Dutton leads, Labor on course for election defeat, according to shock poll

Voters have lifted Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to a significant new lead in the race for power at the federal election, backing him as a strong leader while slashing their core support for Labor to a new low of 25 per cent.

The shift has taken the Coalition to a lead of 55 per cent in two-party terms when Australians are asked how they would allocate their preferences on their ballot papers, driving Labor to just 45 per cent and putting it on course for defeat.

In a warning sign for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, an exclusive survey also shows that 59 per cent of voters say the good news for the government last week – when the Reserve Bank cut interest rates – will not change their vote.

The survey, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, finds that 43 per cent of voters consider Albanese and Labor to be weak, while 22 per cent say the same for Dutton and the Coalition.

Asked which side offered strong leadership, 37 per cent name Dutton and the Coalition while 24 per cent name Albanese and Labor, a turnaround from when the prime minister led on this question one year ago.

The Opposition Leader also has a significant lead when voters are asked to name the party and leader who was best able to deal with United States President Donald Trump, with 34 per cent preferring Dutton and the Coalition compared to 18 per cent who favour Albanese and Labor.

Dutton leads as preferred prime minister for the second consecutive month, ahead by 39 per cent to 35 per cent against Albanese, although 26 per cent of voters are undecided on this question.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the two-party result suggested the Coalition was in a stronger position to win the election in its own right, or by gaining support in a hung parliament.

“I think the swing is on, with both the declining primary vote and preference flows for Labor reflecting where people are at right now,” he said.

“The public mood has lifted after the rate cut, but it has not led to any increase in support for the government.”

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1506 eligible voters from Tuesday to Sunday, a period that included the Reserve Bank decision and Labor’s rescue package for steelworkers in Whyalla, although most of the survey was completed before the government announced $8.5 billion for Medicare on Sunday – a move quickly matched by the Coalition.

Core support for the Greens was unchanged at 13 per cent, while support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation rose from 7 to 9 per cent and the independents slipped from 10 to 9 per cent. The results have a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

Most of the survey was conducted after mining magnate Clive Palmer announced last Wednesday he would support a small party, Trumpet of Patriots, after he spent $117 million on his United Australia Party at the last election.

Reed said the results suggested the independents are down and Palmer has not gained traction, while the Greens risk defeat in some city seats.

“I see nothing in the results or comments to suggest Clive Palmer’s party has made even the slightest dent yet,” he said.

“This suggests that copying Donald Trump will not work here despite Palmer being the closest thing we have to him.”

Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the primary vote results, a key difference from some other surveys.

This also means the survey records their preferences in the way they would be allocated at an election, generating the two-party result of 55 per cent for the Coalition and 45 per cent for Labor using these self-nominated preference flows.

The result is narrower, however, when preferences are allocated in the way they flowed at the last election. In this calculation, the Coalition leads by 52 to 48 per cent.

The fall in Labor’s primary vote over the past few months, from 30 per cent in November to 27 per cent in December and 25 per cent in February, represents one of the steepest falls for the party in the Resolve series and takes the party to its lowest result since the election.

The Coalition primary vote, at 39 per cent, is slightly higher than the January survey and returns to a level last seen in November.

Asked to name the party and leader that is the best choice for their households, 37 per cent name Dutton and the Coalition while 26 per cent name Albanese and Labor, with the rest undecided or preferring others.

The Reserve Bank decision to cut the cash rate to 4.1 per cent sparked Labor hopes of a boost in support, as Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers pointed to lower interest rates, low unemployment, falling inflation and rising real wages.

When voters were asked if the rate cut would change their vote, 59 per cent were undecided or said it would have no effect. Among undecided voters, 31 per cent said it would make them more likely to vote Labor and 18 per cent said it would make them less likely to do so.

Asked how they rate Albanese, 34 per cent of people say his performance is good and 56 per cent say it is poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good”, now stands at minus 22 points, unchanged from last month.

Asked the same questions of Dutton, 45 per cent say his performance is good and 40 per cent say it is poor. His net result is 5 percentage points, a positive rating and a significant contrast with the result for Albanese.

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