Socceroos doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results

At first glance, you cannot fault the effort. In many ways, it was hotly contested and showed promise under trying circumstances and a growing body of evidence to suggest shifting dynamics in the wider landscape.

But probe deeper, and this is a cautionary tale. A searing indictment that serves to illustrate a broken system sleepwalking into permanent decline. It could yet become a tipping point – no, an inflection point – that highlights the need for a root-and-branch investigation.

The clock is ticking and make no mistake (except when mistakes are made), this horror show could usher in a new era if the powers that be do not start thinking outside the box and change the narrative before the cat sits on the mat and then sensationally walks out of his press conference.

Do you have any idea what you read just now? Me neither, but it did not end with the ball in the back of the net.

If one stuffs well-worn clichés into one’s sentences regularly enough, most readers will become fatigued with consuming a similar thing over and over, and the desired message will not be effectively communicated. Likewise, if a team plays in a similar way against a style of opponent who have already demonstrated, on many occasions over many years, that this way of playing does not ensure consistent results against said opponents, positive results will not eventuate nearly as often they should.

It is true that a lack of execution let the Socceroos down against Indonesia on Tuesday night. That, as Graham Arnold said afterwards, “we had the chances, we missed chances – again”. And that Nestory Irankunda’s shot from distance was a couple of centimetres away from deflecting in off the post instead of rebounding off the back of goalkeeper Maarten Paes.

Graham Arnold deals with more dejection against Indonesia from the dugout in Jakarta.Credit: Getty Images

But this international window revealed more than a problem with the final ball. In fact, it did not reveal much of anything, and merely reiterated what we already knew: that the Socceroos remain a side subsisting largely on the sustenance of long balls, crosses and set pieces. And when those options do not work, there does not appear to be much else in the playbook.

These opening two fixtures in the third phase of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup were supposed to be formalities. World No.80 Bahrain and No.133 Indonesia are the lowest-ranked in the group, and Australia were expected to take six points and a comfortable goal difference into tougher battles with Japan and Saudi Arabia in the hope of qualifying directly as one of the top two.

They are 180 minutes in, with one point and no goals, and sit fifth in the six-team Group C – five points behind leaders Japan and three short of the second-placed Saudis. Bahrain and Indonesia are third and fourth respectively.

Indonesia are a good team defying their FIFA ranking. But that sounds a bit like an excuse for 24th-ranked Australia, who made the round of 16 at the last World Cup and left Qatar in December 2022 with their sights set on progressing further four years later.

Awer Mabil cuts a figure of frustration on Tuesday night.Credit: Getty Images

And perhaps there is a valid comparison to be made between the Socceroos and Indonesia. The latter have changed dramatically in personnel and style since the two sides last met in January, when Australia won 4-0 in the round of 16 at the Asian Cup. Tim Garuda’s regeneration under manager Shin Tae-yong has included targeting diaspora players from particularly Europe, in a not-dissimilar fashion to Arnold’s approach since he took over after the 2018 World Cup.

The fruits of that work was evident in the way Indonesia held the Roberto Mancini-coached Saudi Arabia to a 1-1 draw in Jeddah last Thursday, and once more in the way they held Australia scoreless. Five days ago, Saudi had about two-thirds possession and 18 shots to eight, with only four on target. Last night, Australia had about two-thirds possession and 19 shots to five, with only five on target.

That signals a finishing problem. Nevertheless, Arnold’s claims that “I can only do so much, I can’t play the game for them” are starting to sound a lot like the opening sentences of this piece. Because, unlike Indonesia, Australia have not changed much at all in the past nine months.

As real as injuries and hostile away crowds are, both are inherent to soccer – for every team to have ever played the game. And as unpleasant as it is to say, Australia’s struggles in possession against anything resembling an organised defence are starting to look like an Arnold problem.

The 61-year-old has achieved an immense amount for Australian soccer, both domestically and internationally, and his persistence within a difficult landscape has rightly been recognised.

But the post-Qatar 2022 goodwill that earned him a contract extension is fading fast, and when he said post-match he needed to “have a really good think about things” before games against China and Japan next month, there is a sense he is not alone.

Football Australia must surely be doing some serious thinking, too, and will be seeking swift, persuasive evidence that Arnold remains the right head coach to oversee the remainder of this cycle. In a few months’ time this conversation may once again be redundant, just as it was the instant Andrew Redmayne stepped in goal for that penalty shootout against Peru in June 2022.

If, however, this campaign descends into another scrap to qualify for a World Cup – this time for a finals tournament featuring 48 teams – FA might be forced to find some fresh ideas.

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