Voters blame Labor for inflation woes, not Reserve Bank: poll

Australians are holding Labor responsible for fighting inflation despite public attacks on the Reserve Bank over higher interest rates, with 51 per cent of voters saying the government has the greatest role in halting the pressure on prices.

Only 27 per cent of voters blame the central bank for high inflation as the findings highlight the pressure on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers to convince households they can ease the cost of living.

While 51 per cent of respondents said the government was responsible for inflation, only 27 per cent blamed the Reserve Bank. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen, Michael Qulech

Chalmers moved on Sunday to distance himself from a stinging attack on the Reserve Bank by his friend and mentor Wayne Swan after the former Labor treasurer on Friday accused the RBA of “punching itself in the face” by choosing not to cut interest rates.

The poll’s exclusive findings show that Labor and the Coalition are neck and neck in popular support in two-party terms, while Albanese has regained a marginal lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister, ahead by 35 to 34 per cent.

But the government remains behind the Coalition on the key test of economic management, with 37 per cent of voters backing Dutton and only 26 per cent siding with Albanese despite a slight improvement in his support.

The findings in the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead, confirm Labor’s challenge in rebuilding support when its primary vote slipped from 29 to 28 per cent over the past month, while the Coalition was steady at 37 per cent.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the government did not appear to gain ground from Chalmers’ warning last week that higher interest rates were “smashing” the economy – a remark the Coalition dismissed as an attempt to blame the central bank for the government’s problem.

“Voters are much more likely to hold the government responsible for inflation than the Reserve Bank, and many actually think the RBA is trying to solve the issues caused in part by government,” Reed said.

“Being blamed for inflation is even worse than being perceived as not acting to reduce it, which is why the government have been at pains to deflect. But that doesn’t seem to be working, with more people deeming the government responsible.”

The Greens held their primary vote at 13 per cent in the latest survey while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was unchanged at 6 per cent and core support for independents nationwide rose from 10 to 12 per cent.

At 28 per cent, the Labor primary vote has returned to the lowest levels the party has seen in the Resolve polls since they began in early 2021. When results are applied to the preference flows seen at the last election, however, Labor has 51 per cent support in two-party terms, ahead of the Coalition on 49 per cent. When voters are asked how they would allocate their preferences today, the Coalition has 51 per cent support in two-party terms, while Labor has 49 per cent.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1614 eligible voters from Tuesday to Saturday to generate results with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. The changes in the primary vote and in the two-party calculations are within the margin of error.

The treasurer issued a warning on Sunday about the impact of a global slowdown, saying lower commodity prices could cut federal tax revenue by $4.5 billion, and he confirmed plans to visit Beijing at the end of this month.

Chalmers set off a week of dispute over the blame for higher interest rates by warning eight days ago that high rates were “smashing the economy” but insisted this did not mean he was attacking the Reserve Bank or its governor, Michele Bullock.

With Coalition shadow treasurer Angus Taylor accusing the government of trying to blame the bank for its own mistakes, Swan entered the dispute on Friday by saying the bank was sending the economy backwards with its position on rates.

“The government is doing a lot to bring down inflation, but the Reserve Bank is simply punching itself in the face. It’s counterproductive and it’s not good economic policy,” Swan said.

Chalmers said on Sunday that Swan “went much further” than he would have gone, but he defended his own “smashing” remark by pointing to the latest growth figures, which showed the economy grew only 1 per cent in annual terms.

“I’m making a factual point borne out by the national accounts. I don’t second-guess the Reserve Bank in the way that Wayne has,” he said.

“My focus is on working with Governor Bullock – I’ve got a lot of respect for Governor Bullock. Our objectives are actually aligned to get on top of this inflation challenge, and we need to do that without ignoring the risks to growth.”

Labor and Albanese held a big lead over the Coalition and Dutton on economic management after the election but lost that advantage in August last year. While Labor initially lagged by a single percentage point in net terms, the gap widened each month and reached 17 percentage points in last month’s Resolve Political Monitor. The gap narrowed to 12 percentage points in the September survey.

When voters were asked which side was best to keep the cost of living low, 32 per cent named the Coalition and Dutton in the latest survey, ahead of 25 per cent for Labor and Albanese.

When voters were asked who was best to manage jobs and wages, 33 per cent said the Coalition and 32 per cent said Labor.

Reed said the shift against Labor over the past year came as incumbent governments in the states also lost support.

“However, Labor still gains a lot of preferences, so the shift is still not enough for the Coalition to win a majority.”

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