‘Albo needs to turn the ship around’: Inside the government’s flagging fortunes

When Anthony Albanese’s second communications director in nine months walked out of the prime minister’s office for the last time on Friday, he didn’t take the government’s communications problems with him.

It has been, by any measure, another bad week for the federal government.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers and RBA governor Michele Bullock are politely at war over the state of the economy and the need for an interest rate cut (or rise); a leaked cabinet discussion highlighted the mishandling of proposed new questions about sex and gender in the census; the government was marked down again in the polls; and Bill Shorten announced his exit in February next year.

By Wednesday, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson had sent a fundraising email to party supporters with an ominous three-word slogan: “Dutton as PM”.

The exits of Shorten, one of the cabinet’s best communicators, as well as media director Brett Mason, the back and forth between Chalmers and Bullock and the cabinet leak highlight the same issue: 28 months into its term, this is a government struggling to speak plainly to voters about what it has done for them lately and what it plans to do next.

Wednesday’s national accounts demonstrated why. Economic growth is anemic, GDP per person fell for a sixth consecutive quarter and households are struggling.

Last week, this masthead explored why Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was cutting through with voters. This week, we examine why Labor is not.

Over the past two weeks, this masthead has granted anonymity to 17 federal Labor MPs in the cabinet, outer ministry and backbench so they can speak frankly about the government’s challenges.

Wednesday’s cabinet leaks underscore caucus’s growing anxiety that voters have stopped listening to Albanese and Labor.

But Labor’s problems run deeper than that.

Struggling in the polls

Despite the frequent personal attacks on Dutton, the Resolve Political Monitor and other polls show a steady downward trend in Labor’s standing. Voter impatience is rising, and the government has a raft of major policies to push through parliament with just six sitting weeks this year.

One member of Albanese’s frontbench admits the government “has to focus on getting our message sharper, that’s the challenge”, but argues that with the polls suggesting the major parties are locked in at 50-50 in the two-party preferred vote, Labor has plenty of time to close the deal with voters and win a second term.

“Dutton is doing a good job of framing the contest and winning the news each day; we need to pull them back into the frame of, ‘Who do you trust to manage the economy and run the country?’ Because this election will be about the cost of living and voters have no idea what their policies are to fix it,” the minister says.

“It feels like 2019, when the [Labor] opposition was winning tactical battles and tapping into grievances but not sealing the deal. As we get closer to the election, Dutton will have to put up an offer to voters, and I suspect it won’t be much. I’m not sure his two-term strategy survives until the election, especially as it seems like he has given up on the teal seats.”

Another MP bemoaned the fact there appeared to be a growing acceptance in government ranks that a minority government was the best Labor could hope for after the next election, or worse.

“We are not here to work with the Greens and the teals; they aren’t our friends. Albo needs to turn the ship around or we will be in real strife,” they said.

“At the moment, I’m working on a [uniform] 3 per cent swing against us [at the next election], but on a good day for the other side, if they pick up a bigger swing, who knows what happens?”

A third MP, also a minister, concedes it would be preferable for Labor to be ahead of the Coalition in the polls, but argues that at least the government is breaking even, despite the difficult economic circumstances.

“It would be nice to be in front, but we are break-even and under Morrison, the Liberals went on to victory despite trailing, too. We are in a cost-of-living crisis, and that hurts incumbents. The question for voters is: can the other mob do any better?”

It’s a fair point, but it depends in part on whether Labor and Albanese can reframe the current terms of debate, cut through the white noise and its own communications problems, and connect directly to voters once more.

Wednesday’s national accounts exposed the RBA’s growth forecasts as optimistic – the economy grew by 0.5 per cent rather than the bank’s forecast 1.1 per cent over the year – and Bullock’s tone-deaf admission that some people would be forced to sell their homes displayed a Keating-esque “recession we had to have” level of empathy that also hurts the government.

Punters are unlikely to welcome Bullock’s adherence to orthodox economic policy – Chalmers’ comment that rates settings were “smashing” the economy suggest the Treasurer isn’t happy either – because when you’re paying hundreds of dollars extra each month on the mortgage or rent, saving a couple of dollars on a lettuce or a loaf of bread is inconsequential.

Talk is cheap on cost of living

Whether voters ultimately punish the government at the next election or understand the oft-made point that the RBA sets rates independently again comes down to a question of communication.

Despite tax cuts in July, cheaper medicines and childcare and a raft of other cost-of-living relief measures, month after month the polls show voters to have one question for this government: what have you done for me lately?

But Andrew Carswell, the managing director of strategic communications firm Headline Advisory and former media boss for Scott Morrison, says the cabinet leak suggests some MPs are starting to panic and the mishandling of the census matter suggests the government is trying to duck contentious issues in the lead-up to the election.

“Communication has never been the PM’s strength; the best communicator in the government is the treasurer,” he says.

“We saw that this week in an interview when the PM was asked about polling, and he said, ‘We haven’t lost a Newspoll.’ It was loose, it set a standard and it sounded like he wasn’t prepared for it.

“In terms of polls, you just say, ‘Yes, we have some work to do’, it’s pretty easy.”

That standard Carswell refers to is much like the “30 Newspolls lost in a row” standard that Malcolm Turnbull set when he challenged and usurped Tony Abbott for the prime ministership. It became a millstone around Turnbull’s neck when he reached the same mark.

That said, Carswell says there is plenty of time for Albanese to recover – but he has to start now.

“The most likely outcome is still a minority government favouring Labor, but the chances of a minority Coalition government are increasing,” Carswell says.

ANU professor of political marketing Andrew Hughes says the prime minister desperately needed to start cutting through with voters and explain that “we understand your pain, and we are going to fix it”.

“Albanese connects with the Labor base well but they are losing the middle ground rapidly, they are losing the feeling of being aspirational,” he says. “And the outer suburban ring of seats in the capital cities is where they will lose seats at the next election.”

The prime minister is failing to cut through with his communication – and anxiety within the government is growing.Credit: James Brickwood

Hughes contrasts Labor’s relatively unfocused messaging on housing policy – which the party has committed $32 billion to and seen next to no electoral benefit from, though new Housing Minister Clare O’Neil is showing signs of turning that around – with that of the Greens’ housing spokesman, Max Chandler-Mather, who has confirmed his party is the “party of renters”.

“He’s a young guy from Brisbane, he rents, and he’s connecting with people who are renting or still living at home with their parents,” Hughes says. “I’m really surprised Labor hasn’t moved into this space.”

The ANU’s 2022 Australian Electoral Survey, which has been run for decades and which explores why people voted for whom they did, underscores the point: at the last election, 37 per cent of renters plumped for Labor, 26 per cent for the Coalition and a whopping 22 per cent went Green.

If the Greens make further inroads, if the RBA doesn’t deliver a rate cut, if Labor can’t explain what it is doing for renters and would-be first home owners, if the cost of living continues to bite hard and most of all the government can’t articulate to voters what it is doing for them then it will be in a world of pain at the next election.

Albanese was asked this week about the prospect of a hung parliament and pushed back, as he must.

The PM argued this week the polls did not necessarily suggest a hung parliament was inevitable and that “we have 78 seats in the House of Representatives, I’m determined to add to them rather than subtract them”.

But that public optimism does not match the private pessimism of the Labor caucus.

It was Shorten, a Labor legend who like Kim Beazley fell just short of the nation’s top political job, who this week best explained the path to victory for government in simple words as he announced his exit from the stage.

“Labor,” he said, “is at its best when we know what we stand for – and we will fight for things.”

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