By Peter Ryan
Until the Western Bulldogs won the 2016 flag by winning four consecutive finals after finishing outside the top four, no one thought it was possible.
They proved it can be done.
Easton Wood (left) and Matthew Boyd celebrate the Western Bulldogs’ fairytale 2016 premiership, from seventh place.Credit: Scott Barbour
“Once you get that first win, that first bit of momentum, the question becomes: why not?” said 2016 Bulldogs premiership captain Easton Wood.
Why not indeed.
There are those saying it will be done again in 2024 as the Brisbane Lions, the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton shape as the strongest group of elimination finalists seen since the top eight started in its modern form.
Bulldogs midfielder Ed Richards is not looking far ahead, but he knows as well as anyone that each elimination final winner will believe they are capable of going all the way.
The Bulldogs finished sixth but give themselves a premiership chance.Credit: Getty Images
“We beat some pretty good sides this year … that’s why we are there, and put our best foot forward and hopefully have a good finals campaign,” Richards said.
The Lions play Carlton at the Gabba in a repeat of last year’s preliminary final, while the Bulldogs play the Hawks, one of the four teams they defeated on their way to their drought-breaking flag in Luke Beveridge’s second year as coach.
“Hawthorn are going unbelievably well. We have to respect them. They are going to be up and about, and we are looking forward to the challenge,” Richards said.
That challenge is huge even though three times teams outside the top four have made the grand final since the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016. There has also been at least one top-four team making a straight-sets exit from six of the eight finals series.
Hawthorn have not shied away from playing each game like it was an elimination final for the back half of the season.Credit: AFL Photos
Before this recent period, the only other times teams had won their way into a grand final with three consecutive finals wins (since the final five began in 1972) were in 1980 and 1988. In both those years the elimination finals winner lost the grand final by a record margin – Collingwood pummelled by Richmond by 81 points in 1980, and Hawthorn thrashing Melbourne by 96 points in 1988.
Wood says the freshen-up allows the teams outside the top four to enter finals with a freedom the others may not experience given the expectations that accompany a top-four finish.
Carlton, the least favoured of this year’s dreamers, actually spent the most weeks inside the top eight, spending just two rounds below the line.
By contrast the slow-starting Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn spent all but three rounds combined outside the finals until round 17, when the Lions poked their nose in.
That can give teams a sense of timing and momentum, but the only three teams to make the grand final from outside the top four under the current system – the Bulldogs in 2016 and 2021, and the Giants in 2019 – spent every round of those seasons inside the top eight.
It’s also worth noting the Bulldogs made their charge in both seasons having 15 wins, while the Giants had 13 wins (in seasons of 22 rounds per team).
In 2024, when every team played 23 matches, the Lions, Bulldogs and Hawthorn had 14 wins, with the Blues falling into eighth spot with 13. The Lions and the Bulldogs have higher percentages this year than all but the ladder leaders Sydney.
It’s all very well to be excited about winning an elimination final, but the top-four teams present bigger hurdles. Hawthorn have won just once in six encounters against the top-four teams this season.
The Lions have two wins from five matches, the Bulldogs three from six and the Blues three from seven.
In 2016, the Bulldogs played away, at the MCG, away, and at the MCG to win the flag, and the Lions will be forced to take a similar route to the 2019 Giants if they are to qualify, while 2021 was a COVID-affected outlier.
The Bulldogs and Hawthorn could play three of four games at the MCG if Geelong lose their qualifying final despite finishing sixth and seventh.
Carlton will be on the road until grand final day unless Geelong win their qualifying final, and the Blues would then be afforded the luxury of their final two games being played in Victoria.
Wood, who was part of the 2021 team as well, said belief just grew throughout finals, and venues became less important with every win.
“Momentum continues to reinforce your hypothesis of ‘Why can’t it be us?’ We have no evidence it will be anything otherwise, so keep doing what you are doing,” he said.
Football changes so quickly that what happened eight years ago is ancient history, let alone what occurred 20 and 30 years ago.
However, it is clear that it is tougher to win flags in the modern era if the grand final is the fourth game a team is playing in the finals series.
Carlton came from an elimination final to kicking the first five goals of a preliminary final last year. Can they do better this season?Credit: Getty Images
Richmond did so in 2020, but their grand final opponents were Geelong who were also in their fourth match. But the 2018, 2019 and 2021 runner-ups were in their fourth finals match against a team playing their third.
The results were lopsided in 2019 and 2021, while in 2018 the Magpies played the Eagles at home despite being beaten in the qualifying final.
The Bulldogs in 2016, Hawthorn in 2015, West Coast in 2006, Sydney in 2005 and the Brisbane Lions in 2003 won the premiership when the grand final was their fourth match.
Two of those teams were winning their third flag in a row while nothing separated the Eagles and the Swans during those years.
Lachie Neale tasted grand final heartbreak last year. Can he win a flag from outside the top four?Credit: via Getty Images
Wood is as excited as anyone about the possibilities of all eight teams in this year’s finals regardless of history.
He has seen the year unfold.
“It’s as close as it has ever been at that top end,” Wood said. “Once you get out there, it is a matter of being able to harness that momentum.”
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