The Greens sent an attack dog to savage Labor. But did it dig up the wrong dirt?

Adam Bandt is chasing after Labor like a hunter who is certain his target is just about to stumble. The Greens leader is pursuing the government at a frenetic pace on every big issue – housing, the cost of living, Gaza and more – with a total confidence that he can wound Labor at the next election and seize the balance of power. If he runs as fast as he talks, he might even win.

Bandt barely paused for breath this week when he told the National Press Club about his idea of raising $514 billion in taxes from big business to help pay for free dental care and other services. He put incredible energy into his claim to jaded voters that the system was “rigged” against them – and that only the Greens could give them a fair deal.

The Greens machine: leader Adam Bandt (right) with Max Chandler-Mather.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

And he did not take a backward step on the big controversy for the party this week: its support for the CFMEU after weeks of allegations of corruption against some of the officials in the union’s construction division. In fact, Bandt doubled down by defending his colleague, Max Chandler-Mather, for standing with some of the union’s former bosses at a protest in Brisbane.

But the sheer intensity of the Greens’ political attack does not guarantee results. Bandt cannot point to reliable proof that his electrifying rhetoric is vaulting him and his party ahead of Labor.

It’s true that the Greens convey a powerful sense of momentum for their cause, utterly sure they are gaining ground on Labor. They build this impression with claims like those they repeated this week about how they aim to win five Labor electorates at the next election as well as targeting at least one Liberal seat.

The last election proved the Greens had momentum because they won three Brisbane seats – Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane – and did well in the Senate. Bandt, who used to be the only Green in the lower house, now has three colleagues. The big question is whether the party has done enough, so far, to hold those seats or win any others.

There is no sign of that momentum in the Resolve Political Monitor we publish each month. The Greens’ primary vote was 12 per cent in September 2023 and has bumped around a little ever since, leaving it at 13 per cent earlier this month. That is well within the margin of error – 2.4 per cent – for the survey.

Curiously, Bandt has lost appeal in national terms. When voters were asked earlier this month whether they had a negative or positive view of him, his net rating was minus-19 per cent. In September last year it was minus-14 per cent. Perhaps his take-no-prisoners tone can turn off more voters than it attracts.

Even so, Resolve director Jim Reed identifies at least one sign of hope for the Greens when the primary vote results are picked apart.

“The relative stability of their overall vote masks a two-point improvement in the inner cities, which is where they will pick up seats if anywhere,” Reed says. “I think the Greens are appealing quite strongly to a minority of inner city progressive voters through their stance on Gaza and resources projects, but in doing so are sacrificing potential gains in a broader electorate that may agree with their policies on things like rents and living costs.”

Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather addresses the Brisbane CFMEU rally on Tuesday.Credit: AAP

Will voters rally to a party that takes the podium with a disgraced union? Many of the allegations against CFMEU officials are yet to be tested in the courts, but they include claims that officials took bribes to help corporate mates, sacrificed safety for workers, allowed bikie gangs into the union and did deals with known criminals.

While the Greens may gain the allegiance of union members who are angry with Labor, some doubt this will mean much. “There’s no whiplash – ‘let’s go Green’,” says one union official. The Greens have gained donations from the Electrical Trades Union and others in the past, including the CFMEU a decade ago. The big question is whether that surges into the millions.

Bandt’s office knew Chandler-Mather was going to speak to the union rally, so perhaps there was a vague plan to send an attack dog out to savage Labor. The trouble is that Chandler-Mather can be more like an attack puppy at times – a cheerful source of boundless energy who can easily dig up the wrong garden bed. Very effective on housing, not so good on union corruption.

While the Greens MP issued a statement after the fact to condemn that corruption, this cannot undo the symbolic power of his appearance with the CFMEU old guard in front of an “AlbaNazi” sign.

Can the Greens win seats like Wills and Macnamara in Melbourne, or Moreton on the south side of the Brisbane River, or Richmond on the north coast of NSW? Labor strategists say they have heard it all before.

“They’re not embarrassed by making these absurd claims because it is their strategy,” says one Labor strategist. “They’re saying: ‘We are going to win, so you should vote for us.’ They’re not even consistent with themselves over time. Frankly, it’s a bit of a joke.”

In Macnamara, which has a large Jewish population, Labor believes the Greens’ advocacy for Palestine is sure to help the sitting Labor member, Josh Burns, keep the seat. Burns is Jewish. The contest could be tighter in Wills, but the government has elevated Peter Khalil as an envoy for social cohesion, giving him a higher profile.

In Richmond, Labor’s Justine Elliot has survived years of talk about the Greens winning the seat because of their support in Byron Bay. She doubled her margin to 8.2 per cent at the last election.

Labor will have to fight to keep Moreton when it chooses its candidate – tipped to be party official Julie-Anne Campbell – but departing member Graham Perrett leaves it with a margin of 9.1 per cent.

Bandt is picking fights with Labor on every front. He appeals to aggrieved workers about the “rigged” economy, stands with Palestine and accuses the government of being complicit in genocide, demands a stronger climate target and promises a bigger fix to the housing crisis. This looks a golden opportunity for him to dictate terms in a hung parliament.

No wonder the Greens leader is running so fast. But he has not gained any speed by siding so strongly with the CFMEU. Hunters can stumble, too.

David Crowe is chief political correspondent.

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