By Nick Wright
It would take the most unlikely of scenarios for the Brisbane Lions’ season to end this weekend.
Still, remember when Steven Bradbury claimed gold when the entire field fell in front of him? Recall when Michael Clarke took three wickets in an over to turn what looked like a certain draw against India into one of Test cricket’s finest wins?
Stranger things have happened, making the Lions’ final-round clash with Essendon on Saturday a must-win – just in case.
Joe Daniher kicks long against Collingwood last Saturday.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
Mathematically, Brisbane is in a remarkable situation in which it could either clinch a top-four spot or miss the finals altogether.
While the more plausible scenario is the Lions settle for a home elimination final – given that fourth-placed Geelong will go in as heavy favourites against West Coast – the ladder logjam screams to one thing: the premiership race is far from decided, and could be one of the closest in recent memory.
This is perhaps no more telling than in the case of the Lions. A fortnight and a quarter of football ago, they loomed as 2024’s greatest title threat.
They had won nine-straight games, and they headed into quarter-time against the Giants with a 30-point lead.
Erratic goalkicking and an inability to maintain momentum sent them from top-two certainties to the periphery of the top four after defeats to GWS and the Magpies.
“Against the good sides, you’re never going to be able to have the momentum the whole time, and you’re never going to be able to have the clearance dominance and the territory dominance the whole time,” Lions vice-captain Hugh McCluggage said.
“We need to be better at making sure we make it more of a neutral battle when other teams get on top of us. The ownership falls on everyone – every single line, every single player out there, to be able to win that contest when the momentum is starting to turn against us.”
Lions vice-captain Hugh McCluggage.Credit: Getty Images
Realistically, it would take some massive swings for Brisbane’s season to end prematurely.
For example, if the Lions were to suffer an 80-point defeat at the Bombers’ hands, and Fremantle shock a high-flying Port Adelaide by, say, 103-57, Brisbane’s percentage would dip beneath the Dockers while on equal points.
Carlton, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs would then need to win against St Kilda (13th), North Melbourne (17th), and the Greater Western Sydney Giants (3rd), respectively.
Again, stranger things have happened.
Even the Sydney Swans, who have been sitting atop the table for the whole year, have shown chinks in their armour, despite being all but guaranteed the minor premiership.
Until their three-point win over an inconsistent Collingwood two weeks ago, they had suffered three-straight defeats – a nail-biter to Brisbane, a comprehensive loss to the Bulldogs, and a 112-point collapse against the Power.
The Lions have often been their own worst enemy. Despite leading the competition for inside 50s, of their scoring shots, Brisbane have kicked at just a 50.93 per cent efficiency in front of the sticks, with the remainder being behinds.
But while sides have struggled to claim the flag from outside the top four, that statistic has been threatened.
Both the Blues and Giants went within a kick of appearing in last year’s decider. McCluggage thinks the Lions could do better.
“You look at Carlton and the Giants last year, and they didn’t make the top four, but they found some great form late in the year, and they both made prelims,” he said.
“We did that in 2022, where we ended up making the prelim from fifth or sixth position. It’s all about momentum, and I think this year, in particular, it’s such a close competition that any side really can win it.
“It’s tough to win a finals game, whether you’re first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh or eighth. They’re always arm wrestles, and that’s why we’ve got to go to work this week and make sure we are good in those moments.
“That’s what finals come down to. I don’t think it’s any harder from fifth to eighth to win an individual game, but obviously to string two, three, four is going to be tough for any side.
“But we were able to do that over the last [nine weeks] … so we’re hopeful if we do the right things, and we get back to basics, we can do that again, no matter what time of year it is.”