A Trump victory would leave Australia handcuffed to the whims of a narcissist

In Western Australia on Tuesday, US admiral and member of the joint chiefs of staff Lisa Franchetti made comforting noises when asked about the future of the AUKUS agreement should Donald Trump be restored to power. Trump’s positions on international agreements are erratic but for the most part he doesn’t like them, and his political movement is essentially isolationist. Franchetti’s message was that we shouldn’t worry about politics because America would always be there for its allies and partners.

She had to say that, of course, but she won’t get to decide: her job is to follow orders from her commander in chief, so if a freshly elected Trump wanted to renegotiate or tear up AUKUS, she’d have to go along with it. In any event, let’s reflect on the simple fact that she even had to offer the reassurance.

The Labor government would be concerned by the prospect of Donald Trump returning to power.Credit: Illustration: Dionne Gain

Few countries are more deeply enmeshed with the United States than Australia. As the years go by, the relationship gets ever closer, at least among the major parties. If you doubt that, take your mind back to 2003 when John Howard was gung-ho on the ill-fated invasion of Iraq and signed us up to the Coalition of the Willing with the US and Britain. The Labor Party, led by the late Simon Crean, opposed Australia’s involvement.

It’s hard to imagine the contemporary Labor Party, which almost tripped over itself in its rush to embrace Scott Morrison’s AUKUS, first in opposition and then in power, saying “no” to an American administration should it have a future rush of blood to the head. As for the Liberal-National coalition under Peter Dutton, it would say “yes” without bothering to wait for the question.

Given what’s happened in the US over the past seven years, there is a disturbing reluctance to apply a rational and ethical critique to the relationship. America is not well, and it will take a long time before it gets better, if it ever does. After all, every empire eventually falls.

The natural tendency of most people inside and around politics is to assume that after periods of disruption, equilibrium – a return to previous norms – will be restored. The American presidential contest puts the lie to that.

A previous president who sparked a murderous insurrection to overturn an election result that had not gone his way is, right now, favoured to win on November 5. He is in such a strong position because the man who was until a few days ago his opponent was caught in a lie about his debilitated physical and mental condition, with his family and advisers in on the con.

That is how our greatest friend and protector – in Morrison’s phrase, our “forever partner” – has gone about deciding who should be the most powerful person on the planet.

If this is not the time to take a hard look at how we approach and deal with the US, when will that time come? The America that so many of us, including me, found compelling and often inspiring has gone. The numbers – not the polls but the actual voting numbers – tell us something profound about today’s America. In 2020, after four years of Trump’s chaos and narcissistic tantrums, 74,223,975 Americans voted for him.

Even more look likely to back him later this year. They believe his lies about the 2020 election and either endorse the 2021 insurrection or don’t care about it. If Trump loses on November 5, neither they nor their political hero will accept that defeat either.

And even if US Vice President Kamala Harris manages to be sworn in to serve as president for four years, it’s not as though those voters are going anywhere; they and their cultish belief systems are one side of the two-sided American political contest.

Trumpism is unlikely to die with Trump. It could well become more dangerous under Trump’s new running mate and probable successor J.D. Vance, a bundle of pathologies on the lookout for ever more extreme and provocative policy positions to win the applause of Trump and the MAGA mob.

It’s easy to see how Trump sowed doubts about the electoral system, because it is a wonky, patched-up operation. Unlike Australia, where a single public authority oversees elections and electoral boundaries, in the US each state handles national elections on boundaries rigged by local legislatures. And it’s not the people but the Electoral College, which militates completely against the principle of one person, one vote, that ultimately determines the winner of the presidential ballot.

This is part of a larger failure of America’s systems of government to provide a safer and fairer environment for its people. Opinion polls consistently suggest that most Americans favour tighter gun controls and yet the gun laws keep heading in the other direction.

As for its judiciary, the Supreme Court has long been overtly politicised, with its members appointed for life. Trump’s appointees recently gave a president the power to do just about anything, free of legal restrictions. That is the great democracy upon which Australia is so reliant for its security and its economic health.

The presidential campaign makes for an irresistible spectacle. But the election result will be only one chapter in a larger story of decline and dysfunction that will reverberate in our direction for many years to come.

Shaun Carney is a regular columnist.

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