Next stop for the Socceroos on road to 2026? It could be North Korea

Australia’s road to the 2026 World Cup could go straight through North Korea, with a one-in-three chance Graham Arnold and his Socceroos will be facing an away trip to Pyongyang in less than three months.

The Socceroos will learn on Thursday who their opponents will be for the third round of World Cup qualifying, with the draw to be conducted at AFC House in Kuala Lumpur at 5pm AEST. Eighteen teams will be divided into three groups of six teams, with the top two in each to qualify directly for the tournament, which is being expanded to 48 teams for the first time and will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The Socceroos are a one in three chance of drawing North Korea in the next round of World Cup qualifying.Credit: Getty

Arnold is hoping for a kind outcome, not only in terms of potential opponents but logistics.

However, there is one team in pot six which could make things very complicated, very quickly: the world No.110-ranked North Koreans, whose football program, like everything else in the hermit kingdom, operates behind a veil of secrecy.

North Korea’s borders have been effectively shut since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. A triumphant return to international sport was on the cards for a second round World Cup qualifier against Japan in March – only for it to be called off at the last minute due to Pyongyang’s concerns over a spike in strep throat infections in Japan.

The match was recorded as a 3-0 forfeit victory to Japan, while North Korea were also fined by FIFA. The AFC subsequently moved their two remaining home games against Syria and Myanmar to nearby Laos.

It remains to be seen whether North Korea is willing or able to host any games in the next phase of qualifying, but the Socceroos could well be the first international athletes to travel there in four years. Teams from pot two (Australia, Qatar or Iraq) will play their first away matches in the third round against teams from pot six (North Korea, Indonesia or Kuwait) on September 10, which is the second ‘match day’ of the next phase of qualifying.

It’s also unclear whether the Socceroos will be permitted by the Australian government to travel to North Korea. Comment was sought from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, as well as FIFA and the AFC, while a Football Australia spokesperson was unwilling to comment on a hypothetical, other than to say the federation has a strong working relationship with relevant authorities who have facilitated travel to other higher-risk destinations in the past.

DFAT had assisted with plans for the Socceroos to head to Palestine for their away World Cup qualifier in November, which was subsequently moved to Kuwait after the October 7 attacks and outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas.

If it does happen, then at least Arnold will know what to expect on the ground in North Korea. He was the coach of the last Australian sporting team to have travelled there for competition; in 2007, Arnold’s Olyroos sealed their spot at the Beijing Olympics thanks to a 70th-minute goal from Adrian Leijer, which earned them a 1-1 draw at the Kim Il Sung Stadium in Pyongyang.

HOW THE WORLD CUP QUALIFYING DRAW WILL WORK

• The 18 teams in round three will be allocated to six pots of three teams each, based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking release of June 20.
• The six pots representing the teams will be labelled team pots 1 to 6. The three highest ranked teams will be allocated to pot 1, the next three to pot 2, the next three to pot 3, and so on until all the pots are filled.
• Each group will then be allocated one team from each team pot.
• The draw will start by drawing a team from team pot 6 and will end by drawing the last team from team pot 1. Each team pot will be completely emptied before moving on to the next pot.
• Teams drawn from each pot will be allocated to groups sequentially from A to C. Thus, the team drawn first will be placed in Group A, the team drawn second in Group B, and the team drawn third in Group C. The process will be repeated until all six team pots are emptied.
• The position that each team occupies in a group will be determined by the pot from which it is drawn. Thus, teams drawn from pot 1 will be placed in position 1 of each group, teams from pot 2 will be placed in position 2, and so on.

AFC

Leonid Petrov, a North Korean expert at Australian National University, said there was no inherent danger in visiting North Korea, provided foreigners don’t “start bending the rules” like former ANU student Alek Sigley – but they will be monitored at all times by government operatives, who must report not only on the conduct of visitors but on one another, and how they themselves act in their company.

Visiting teams would most likely placed in a hotel or guest house, which Petrov said would effectively be like a prison because they would not be allowed to leave without supervision. “Given that North Koreans are still paranoid about COVID, and about capitalism, and other ideological influences, they will try to isolate the team as much as possible from any locals,” he said.

“North Korea is, in many ways, an inhospitable place. For tourists, it’s fine. But for projects like a concert, or soccer match – particularly if it’s international, which involves a lot of participants – if something goes wrong, the decisions are made painfully slow.

“Even little things like aspirin or Panadol may be hard to find ... the shortages of everything can be felt very, very acutely if the team needs something which North Koreans might not have, or need the permission of high authority to be released. The interviews, the rights to TV, broadcasting and everything ... it’s a nightmare.”

Crowds gather to welcome Russian president Vladimir Putin in the North Korean capital.Credit: nna\KCampbell

North Korea have not reached the men’s World Cup since 2010 and pulled out of qualifying for Qatar 2022 when the pandemic began.

The Socceroos (No.23 in the world) only narrowly missed out on leapfrogging South Korea (No.22) on the latest FIFA rankings, which would have seen them land in pot one with Japan and Iran and theoretically ensured an easier draw.

While they may still land in a difficult group, the expansion of the World Cup and the provision of 8.5 slots to Asia (up from 4.5) means they would not necessarily have to beat the team from pot one to qualify directly. Even if they miss out in this round, there is a fourth round of AFC qualifying in which an additional team will clinch a spot at the 2026 World Cup, and also a fifth round in which the winner will progress to an intercontinental play-off.

If Australia’s six-game winning streak in qualifiers continues, and other results fall their way, they could qualify for the World Cup as soon as March 2025 – a full year before the tournament is due to begin, which would give Football Australia an unprecedented opportunity to bring high-ranked nations out for friendlies and warm-up fixtures.

Sports news, results and expert commentary. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.