Bipartisan byelection: There’s only one thing on the minds of Dunkley voters

Outside a polling booth in the Melbourne suburb of Carrum Downs, there is only one issue on the minds of voters – how to pay for food, fuel and housing.

Australia may be gripped by an increasing ideological division, but ahead of next weekend’s Dunkley byelection, voters – regardless of their political allegiances – are united by the need for more help from governments.

At the Lyrebird Community Centre in Melbourne’s south-east, The Sunday Age this week met early voters who spoke on the condition they were not fully identified to speak freely about their circumstances.

“I don’t know what sort of strings they can pull, but just help us,” student Bria said.

Born and raised in Frankston, Bria – who juggles factory work and study – doesn’t consider herself to be politically engaged, but is increasingly worried about her future.

“For me, it’s about the cost-of-living crisis, buying groceries and being able to buy a house in the future,” she said. “I would love to be able to feel comfortable in life, and not have to worry.”

Labor candidate Jodie Belyea at the Lyrebird Community Centre on Friday.Credit: Wayne Taylor

Bria, who is backing Labor, is one of more than 100,000 voters from Frankston, Mount Eliza, Seaford and Carrum Downs who will help decide the outcome in the Dunkley byelection, triggered by the death of Labor MP Peta Murphy in December.

Labor holds the seat by a 6.3 per cent margin.

The result on March 2 won’t change the government – but the byelection remains a crucial electoral test for Labor and the Coalition, and will shape the political landscape a year out from the next federal poll.

Outside the Lyrebird centre, none of the voters The Sunday Age spoke to this week raised concerns about tax concessions for negatively geared properties or Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

Liberal candidate, Nathan Conroy, greets voters alongside deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley at a polling booth in Carrum Downs.Credit: Wayne Taylor

For mother of two, Sue, from the suburb of Skye, her immediate concern is finding cheaper alternatives to feed her family and ensuring her daughter – who is on the National Disability Insurance Scheme – has ongoing support.

“Groceries are disgusting, I have changed brands, I have cut back. Instead of soft drinks, we have cordial,” she said. “There is nothing left at the end of the week”.

Knocking on thousands of doors across the electorate and manning polling booths, both Labor candidate Jodie Belyea and the Liberals’ Nathan Conroy agree that there is only one issue on voters’ minds.

But connecting with voters and convincing them that politicians can help isn’t easy.

Conroy, 31, who grew up in social housing in the Irish city of Cork, says he sympathises with voters doing it tough.

“What I saw from my mum, was a type of grit and determination to get ahead,” Conroy told The Sunday Age. “Now people can’t get ahead, no matter how hard they work.”

At 19, Conroy moved to Australia from Ireland on a working holiday visa, arriving in Brisbane with the goal of ending up in Melbourne. He picked vegetables in Mildura, but it was a job in hospitality – at the Caulfield RSL – where he met his Dunkley-born wife.

“I went from washing dishes, rising up to being the second-in-charge,” he said.

Six years ago, the couple relocated to Dunkley and live in Frankston South with their young son. Conroy was elected to Frankston City Council in 2020 and, until recently, served as mayor.

Conroy believes voters are “extremely sad and upset”, and blame the government for inflation and rising interest rates.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is banking on that anger to deliver a swing to the Liberal Party, and to prove that these outer-suburban electorates are winnable – and can potentially replace the inner-urban seats the party lost to independents in 2022.

Standing in his way is Belyea, 56, who founded a local volunteer-led group known as the Women’s Spirit Project, offering health and wellbeing programs for vulnerable women.

Back in Carrum Downs, Les, 78, has already cast a vote for the Liberal Party.

He has just come from the supermarket where he challenged staff about the rising price of soft drinks.

Ben, a father of two, described the cost of living as “out of control” and said fuel costs were making it almost impossible for families to afford to drive to work.

“It’s a struggle,” he said.

Like Conroy, Belyea believes her early struggles – which saw her overcome family violence and sexual abuse – have made her acutely aware of the battles some of the more vulnerable members of the Dunkley community are facing.

Raised 20 kilometres away in the suburb of Parkdale, Belyea left school and worked as a secretary before returning to study at 25 when she said she “found her study mojo”.

She has lived in Frankston for 13 years, with her husband and now-teenage son.

Raised in a Liberal household, it was Labor MP Peta Murphy who encouraged Belyea to join the Labor Party after they met through the Women’s Spirit Project and formed a friendship.

The late Labor MP Peta Murphy in Parliament.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

In January 2023, Belyea bumped into Murphy walking along the beach in Frankston and agreed to grab a coffee soon. At that meeting, Belyea had an “extremely emotional conversation” with Murphy about her prognosis.

Murphy, who first won the seat in 2019, had a metastatic breast cancer that was treatable, but not curable.

“She wasn’t sure how long she had,” Belyea said.

“We had a conversation about her succession plan, and we talked about whether I had what it takes. So I went home that night and joined the Labor Party.

“There were tears, it was very emotional. But we didn’t talk about it ever again.”

If elected, Belyea has vowed to champion Murphy's legacy by lobbying the Albanese government to limit gambling advertising, following on from the late MP's work leading a public inquiry into the social damage from problem gambling.

“When you think about cost-of-living pressures … gambling is often something that is in the mix, that is taking money away from people’s pockets,” she said.

“I feel really deeply that [Murphy’s] work was incredible in that space and I will advocate to take that further.”