Labor loses ground in battleground states

Voters have turned on Labor in two of the battleground states at the next election and cut their support for the party nationwide while marking down Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on his personal performance.

The trend has sliced the party’s primary vote from 37 to 33 per cent in Queensland and from 38 to 34 per cent in Western Australia over the past year, in a backlash that could force Labor into minority government or out of power.

Anthony Albanese has retained his advantage as preferred prime minister over Peter Dutton, although the gap between the two men has narrowed.

An exclusive survey also reveals the challenge for Albanese in holding support among families who are suffering from high inflation, with Labor’s primary vote falling 6 percentage points among voters aged 35 to 54 over the past year.

But the Labor primary vote remains higher nationwide than it was at the last election despite the setbacks, while the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen to 32 per cent from 36 per cent at the election.

Albanese has retained his advantage as preferred prime minister, favoured by 43 per cent of voters compared to 27 per cent who back Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, although the gap between the two men has narrowed.

The result is tighter in Dutton’s home state of Queensland, where 39 per cent prefer Albanese and 32 per cent name Dutton.

The quarterly analysis of the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead, is based on responses from 4818 voters over three surveys from October to December.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the government should be concerned about the fall in support since a similar analysis of the final quarter of last year, when Labor had strong backing and Albanese had his best results on his personal performance.

“Labor still leads the Coalition in our polling, but the worrying thing for the Labor government will be that the trend during 2023 has only gone one way – against them,” Reed said.

“Labor’s vote lead has dropped most dramatically among working people on middle incomes and those who live in urban areas.

“In other words, those who hold mortgages and can now least afford them have turned on Labor this year.”

Voters aged from 35 to 54 threw their support behind Labor at the end of last year to give the party a primary vote of 40 per cent among this cohort.

The party’s support was 42 per cent among voters aged from 18 to 34, and 38 per cent among voters aged over 55 over the three months to the end of last year.

While the support among the over-55 cohort has remained the same over the past year, it has slipped to 38 per cent among the youngest group of voters and fallen more significantly to 34 per cent among those aged 35 to 54.

Labor made big gains in WA at the last election, winning four seats from the Liberals and gaining nine seats overall – its best result since 1990 and a crucial factor in its ability to gain a small majority in federal parliament.

Those gains are now at risk because the quarterly analysis shows Labor’s primary vote in WA, at 34 per cent, is below its result at the last election.

While Labor’s support has fallen in all mainland states over the past year, its primary vote is still higher in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia than it was at the election.

“Voters warmed to Albanese quite quickly after the 2022 election, and certainly seemed to award him credit in the early months for ticking off election promises and governing with a softer style,” Reed said.

“However, the feedback we now have often questions his focus, competence and leadership strength.”

The quarterly analysis found 40 per cent of men considered Albanese’s performance to be good and 49 per cent said it was poor, resulting in a net rating of minus 9 percentage points.

Among women, however, 39 per cent considered his performance to be good and 42 per cent thought it was poor, resulting in a net rating of minus 3 per cent.

Thirty-six per cent of men said Dutton’s performance was good and 45 per cent said it was poor, generating a net rating of minus 9 per cent.

Among women, 31 per cent said his performance was good and 39 per cent said it was poor, resulting in a net rating of minus 8 per cent.

“Dutton’s stocks have improved across most groups this year, but it is the older males who have warmed to him most,” Reed said.

“This is a Coalition base returning to the fold, and it is no coincidence that his ratings improved in line with the No [Indigenous Voice] referendum vote or that this base group was most likely to vote No.”

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