Call it the Draper effect. Since Sam Draper has been out of the team Essendon have won one game and lost four.
Yes, Essendon have played good teams in that time that they might have lost to even with him in the side – think Geelong in Geelong – but they might also have won more. Think Port Adelaide and the loss after the siren from Dan Houston’s goal.
Sam Draper’s absence has had a big impact on the Bombers.Credit: Getty
Digging a little deeper into the cause and effect of Draper’s absence and the picture becomes more compelling about the impact of the rambunctious ruckman. Since he has been out, Essendon have been smashed in critical areas that previously were a strength.
In the past five weeks they have been outscored from clearances in four of the five games. In the one game they won that stat – against Port Adelaide – they still lost (even though they were leading when the final siren sounded).
In the first 15 rounds, before Draper went out and when Essendon endured a frustrating yo-yo run of wins followed by runs of losses, they still ranked among the best in the league for their attack.
In the month before Draper’s injury the Bombers were averaging 89.5 points a game. That has slipped to 68.8 in the past five weeks.
Brad Scott said this week the coaching conundrum was balancing personnel and a commitment to a style of game. So, yes, they could do things that would minimise the impact of Draper’s loss, but it would be at the cost of continuing to teach and embed a game plan with a young group.
“Sometimes you rob Peter to pay Paul,” Scott said.
“We do take a longer-term view with all this as well. There are some shorter-term things we can do to stem the bleeding, but when it gets to the point where you are completely going away from the system that takes a long time to embed and to coach it can be counter-productive.
“In the short-term, yeah, we will do some things to arrest that, but we have to still go in with the belief we can play better than we have the last two weeks regardless of the way we set up around stoppages.”
Undoubtedly, the loss of Dylan Shiel for a period also hurt the clearance figures. He has been back for two games but as Scott said this week, there is a big difference with some players between not being injured and being fit to play at their best.
Shiel, currently, is the former and not the latter. So, too, is Jake Stringer, who has been fit enough to play, just not fit enough to play the way Stringer plays best. So now he is out.
Essendon have missed the big presence of Sam Draper.Credit: Getty Images
Will Setterfield has been missing since round nine and so without Draper, Shiel and Setterfield that is much of the Bombers’ first-choice midfield.
“The silver lining has been the emergence of [Ben] Hobbs, [Jye] Caldwell, [Archie] Perkins,” Scott said.
“Even on the weekend, we have a lot of respect for Marcus Bontempelli, [Tom] Liberatore, [Adam] Treloar, good, experienced AFL players and their opponents for the most part were a 19-year-old, a 20-year-old and a 23-year-old or something. There’s a lot of upside for us.”
The disruption to the midfield – coinciding at least in the past five weeks when they had games against the Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Fremantle – partly explains why their win-loss record against the top eight teams is so poor.
The Bombers have a 2-10 win-loss record this year against top-eight teams, so typically they have fallen short against the best teams and beaten the teams they should beat below them.
“We have had that [the chunks of wins, then losses and the top-eight record] but littered within that there were a couple of really tight losses against good teams. You know, Dan Houston does not kick that goal, we don’t concede 44 points in the final quarter against Collingwood [Essendon eventually lost by 13 points] – which is more a reflection on them than us – then it could have been a bit different,” defender Mason Redman said this week after re-signing on a new long-term deal.
Compounding Scott’s problem this week is that they are also without former best-and-fairest winner Jordan Ridley to injury. Draper, Ridley and Zach Merrett would arguably be Essendon’s three most important players. They are now without two of them.
“Sam Draper is a week-to-week proposition,” Scott said. “He has started running again. We will re-load him and if the build-up goes well, and he is pain-free and can perform then he will play.
“It’s really hard to answer [when he’ll be back or if he will play again if the team makes the finals]. The truth is I don’t know,” Scott said.
The truth is the Bombers need him.
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