The road ahead: What’s next for Socceroos, Arnold and his players?

What’s next?

Nothing for a few months. Australia’s 26-man squad has dispersed back to clubland. They won’t assemble again until the next international window between March 20-28, which seems a perfect moment for a couple of homecoming friendlies on Aussie soil so that fans can show their appreciation for the Socceroos in the flesh. Melbourne deserves first crack, given the spectacular scenes at Federation Square over the past fortnight.

Will Arnold stay on?

A very interesting situation. Graham Arnold is off for a well-deserved break after his contract expired with the Socceroos’ World Cup exit, and says he isn’t sure what he wants to do next. He was close to being sacked earlier in the year, when Australia’s qualification campaign teetered on the brink of disaster, but not only did he recover, he created a self-perpetuating environment of belief that totally convinced his players they were capable of beating anyone in the world.

Arnold has now forged his place as a Socceroos legend - to the point where he might begin wonder if now is the perfect time to say goodbye and ride off into the sunset. He has been happy to speculate about his future in recent months, expressing his admiration for Major League Soccer and his openness to work with another national team if one came calling with the right offer.

In a recent interview with Dutch football magazine Voetball International, he also revealed his burning ambition to coach NAC Breda, the club he once represented as a player. If there is one glaring hole in his resume, it’s his lack of success at club level abroad, and with his stocks so high, there would surely be offers flowing in that would tempt him to have another crack.

Graham Arnold after the loss to Argentina.Credit: AP

Equally, Arnold might see Australia’s campaign in Qatar as the ultimate realisation of the vision he’s had for the Socceroos all along, and may want to see how much further he can take them.

Either way, it’s incumbent on Football Australia to have a serious conversation with him and give him first right of refusal.

If not him, then who?

There are a few obvious options. Kevin Muscat, fresh from winning the J.League with Yokohama F. Marinos, looks ripe for the challenge and has a proven ability to combine entertaining attacking football with the sort of hard edge he displayed as a player. Aussie DNA, you might call it.

The problem with him is the former Melbourne Victory boss is already fielding strong interest from clubs in Europe, and those close to him say his career is taking him on a higher trajectory than the Socceroos. FA should at least ask the question.

Tony Popovic has long been discussed as a potential Socceroos candidate - he has the runs on the board, and his ethos seems suited to the international arena too, but the Victory are struggling under his watch, and it’d be a big call to hand the reins to a coach without currency in that sense. That also applies to John Aloisi, who won the A-League with Western United last season but is overseeing what could only be described as a championship hangover this term.

FA officials could also look to a foreign coach - but if they do, they’d want to spend their newly found cash on a world-class manager who is fully committed to the job, prepared to put their faith in homegrown talent and deal with the unique foibles of the Aussie game. It may just be easier to stick with a local, especially since we seem to be in the thick of a ‘golden generation’ of coaches.

When’s the next major tournament?

Good question. Originally slated for mid-2023, the Asian Cup was to be hosted by China, but they handed back the rights due to issues relating to their COVID-zero policy. Qatar - who else - swooped in as the replacement, but there are rumours they want to move the tournament to January 2024. Watch this space.

And the next World Cup?

The 2026 edition will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico. It’ll also be the first one with 48 teams, up from the usual 32 - and although the FIFA council has previously voted to split them into 16 groups of three teams each, this is a wildly unpopular idea with fans, who treasure the drama involved with the current four-team group structure, and FIFA is said to be open to revisiting their plans.

What do the playing ranks look like?

Pretty good, as this World Cup has shown, and as keen observers of the A-League will already know. While six current Socceroos are 30 or older, and probably won’t be around at the end of the next four-year cycle - including key men Aaron Mooy, Mathew Leckie and Mitch Duke - there are some terrific kids coming through.

Some of them, like Garang Kuol, Harry Souttar and Kye Rowles, were already in Qatar, but plenty of others are on the periphery, and could bang down the door of the national team if they can make the right moves, land themselves at good clubs overseas and play regular football.

Yes, Arnold has expressed “serious concern” for the country’s development pathways, and there are big problems that need to be addressed, but there is enough talent waiting to be harnessed to give fans cause for optimism. It’s a mug’s game, but here’s what the bigger picture could look like in four years’ time.

When does qualification begin?

The days of struggling to qualify for the World Cup, or having to go through the play-offs again, are surely over. Asia’s representation is growing from four direct slots to eight. If the Socceroos are fair dinkum - and after the past few weeks, we can say they are - they’ll make it to 2026 with their eyes closed.

Because of Australia’s standing as one of the confederation’s top nations, the qualification process won’t begin for the Socceroos until late November 2023, when the second round kicks off. It features nine groups of four teams each, who will all play each other twice, home and away.

The top two teams will then proceed to the third round, where there’ll be three groups of six - and from there, the top two teams will qualify directly for the next World Cup. But even if disaster were to strike, there’s a failsafe: the teams who finish third and fourth in those groups will then proceed to the fourth round, where they’ll be split into two three-team groups.

The winners of those also qualify directly, and the runners-up go to the fifth round.

None of this should really concern the Socceroos, although the low-pressure nature of the new qualification pathway could provide an opportunity for a new coach - or Arnold - to adapt a new style of play without having to worry about securing results, which should come pretty easily anyway. The trade-off is the opposition they’ll be facing will be weaker, and may not steel them adequately for the calibre of teams they’ll face at the World Cup.

Whichever way you slice it, and regardless of how quickly the standards might be rising across Asia - don’t worry, Australia will be there again at the next World Cup, and will probably never miss another one.

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