‘Disaster upon disaster upon disaster’: Liberals assess damage

Coalition leader Matthew Guy declined to immediately step down as leader after failing to capitalise on an anti-Labor swing, marking his second successive election loss and raising questions about the Liberal Party’s status as a party of government in Victoria.

Sources close to former leader Michael O’Brien say he is considering a return as leader in the highly likely scenario Guy steps down in coming days.

Matthew Guy has lost the last two elections as Liberal leader.Credit: Jason South

While the sources said O’Brien putting his hand up was not considered probable, he may join a narrowed field of potential new leaders because other contenders Louise Staley and John Pesutto were uncertain to win the seats they were running in. Other candidates could include Brad Battin, Matt Bach or Ryan Smith.

Several Coalition MPs told The Age the Liberal Party needed to embark on major internal reform to become relevant to younger voters. While they argued the election result was driven by deep-seated problems unrelated to Guy, they claimed it was clear that Guy returning as leader, when he toppled O’Brien last year, was wrong.

“This guy has taken us off a cliff twice now. He and everyone who helped bring him back need to own this,” one MP said. “This is disaster upon disaster upon disaster.”

In his concession speech, delivered at a bowls club in Doncaster, Guy said Victorians needed to unite behind the new government. He pitched Melbourne’s west and north as regions where the Coalition could make future gains, after being rejected by voters in Melbourne’s east.

Former opposition leader Michael O’Brien campaigning in Malvern. It’s unclear whether he will try to regain the leadership of the party.Credit:

“With a swing of about four per cent to us … we will finish, despite what many commentators say, with more seats in parliament.

“There have been some truly tremendous swings to our side of politics in Melbourne’s north and west, above 15 and approaching 20 per cent.”

“That alone is a message … Our time in the sun will come again.”

Shadow minister David Davis said it was possible to rebuild for the next election, but admitted the party has deep flaws.

“We’ve got a huge amount of work to do,” Davis said.

“There’s obviously sadness [among my colleagues] … this is very tough for those candidates who put their genuine heart and soul into this.”

The Coalition struggled to gain ground in the eastern and southern suburbs of Melbourne where it needed to gain seats to challenge Labor for the government benches. In some seats, Labor extended its margin, despite suffering a 7 per cent statewide swing against it.

At 10pm, the opposition was behind in key seats, including Bayswater, Box Hill, Bass, Glen Waverley, Ashwood and Ringwood – all seats it had hoped to win. It is likely to lose the seats of Mornington, to independent Kate Lardner and Hastings to Labor.

Shadow treasurer David Davis maintained hope that the Coalition was winning a higher proportion of postal ballots and votes cast before election day. These votes are counted later on election night.

“I actually think the pre-poll was very, very strong for us, you could feel it,” he said.

Frontbencher Georgie Crozier defended the party’s campaign but acknowledged “there’s clearly some issues we’re facing”.

Swings against Labor were larger in the outer suburbs, but the Coalition failed to win seats in these areas because of the large margins accrued at the 2018 “Danslide” election.

Swings away from Labor in working-class areas included a 20 per cent shift in Broadmeadows, 11 per cent in Greenvale, seven per cent in Laverton, 14 per cent in Mill Park, 17 per cent in St Albans, 9 per cent in Sunbury, 15 per cent in Thomastown and 12 per cent in Yan Yean.

The Nationals were likely to defeat independents in Mildura, Shepparton and Morwell, while the Liberal Party won Nepean off Labor.

Liberal deputy leader David Southwick said the result in his ultra-marginal seat of Caulfield was too close to call and would probably drag into next week because thousands of postal ballots had not yet been received.

Opposition frontbencher Matt Bach said there were some positive signs for the Coalition’s hopes of retaining Kew and Brighton, where well-funded independents were running.

“We’re getting good indications we may well hold those seats. As long as we do, we’re in the game,” he said. “I am hopeful.”

Redbridge political consultant and former Liberal staffer Tony Barry said the result provided further proof the Liberal Party needed to embark on structural reform to re-engage with certain demographic groups that it had lost touch with, including Millennials and professional women.

“We’ve now had a succession of elections that show we are losing our base. We are picking up some votes in traditional Labor areas, but it is not enough.

“The problems are manifest, obviously.”

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