Worst of all worlds: The half-hearted sanctions against Russia have failed

Russia has not defaulted on its sovereign debt after all. Nor is it likely to do so under the current sanctions regime, and as long as Europe continues to finance Vladimir Putin’s military state with purchases of gas, oil and coal.

The Kremlin is already sufficiently confident to reopen the Moscow stock exchange for bond transactions. The US Treasury’s sanctions office (OFAC) has made life easier by leaving a loophole for sovereign debt repayments, concerned that there might otherwise be a Lehmanesque shock to global finance.

The West’s sanctions on Russia are not having the desired effect.Credit: AP

The uninterrupted flow of fossil revenues - at windfall prices - is enough to cover interest service costs and redemptions. Goldman Sachs even thinks that the central bank will be able to relax capital controls gradually.

The rouble has not collapsed. It has stabilised after a 40 per cent devaluation, a manageable drop for a semi-autarkic economy. We are facing the failure of Western sanctions. Calibrated half-measures are not enough to change the Kremlin calculus or to dissuade Putin from a policy of attrition against civilian targets.

Yes, Russia is having to sell some crude oil at a steep discount but the gap is narrowing as shippers learn to navigate the political reefs.

The Kremlin is still earning almost $US100 ($133) a barrel at today’s global prices, twice the average of the last eight years. The Russian current account is in rude health. Clemens Grafe, from Goldman Sachs, expects the surplus to top $US200 billion ($268 billion) this year as imports of Western consumer goods are slashed.

Russia has enough usable foreign currency to stay afloat for a long time. Western sanctions against the central bank are not proving to be the killer blow supposed at first. There are too many deliberate exemptions.

Goldman’s deep-dive into the effect of sanctions ought to end all wishful thinking. The US investment bank forecasts that the Russian economy will contract by 10 per cent this year, a bad recession but not an economic breakdown. Growth will then recover to 2.4 per cent next year and 3.4 per cent in 2024 as the country adjusts. Exports will be back to 98 per cent of prior levels by early next year. If so, Putin is not going to lose sleep over this.

Putin has been building a fortress economy ever since the annexation of Crimea. Net foreign funding is negligible. Total public debt is 18 per cent of GDP, one of the lowest ratios in the world.

“If Russia were fully integrated into global supply chains, restrictions on imports and exports would be immediately destructive. However, Russia largely exports goods that are almost fully produced locally,” said Mr Grafe.

It is a strategic imperative to bring this crisis to a head immediately by raising the ante.

European ministers once again grappled with a hydrocarbon embargo - the fifth package of sanctions - at an EU meeting on Monday. Again the proposals ran into resistance from Germany, with Italy and others happy to tuck in behind.

We are already in late March. The winter is over and Europe will have enough gas to last deep into the late autumn. It has sufficient spare import capacity for liquefied natural gas to rebuild some of its depleted storage with shipments of LNG from the US and Qatar over the summer months.

Professor Moritz Schularick, from Bonn University, said an immediate halt to all purchases of Russian gas, oil and coal would cut German GDP by 3 per cent this year and cost around €120 billion ($177 billion) but is perfectly feasible. “The world wouldn’t end,” he said.

As for oil, the International Energy Agency has just cut its forecast for global demand this year by 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d). It has issued a 10-point plan for rapid cuts that could shave use by a further 2.7 million b/d without causing an economic crisis, chiefly by a string of temporary measures such as lowering speed limits by 10 km/h, car-free Sundays, and less air travel.

Moscow has reopened its stock exchange for bond transactions.Credit: Bloomberg

The issue is no longer whether it can be done but whether Europe has the political courage to try. What is clear is that Western sanctions policy is the worst of all worlds. We are allowing Putin to exploit Russia’s leverage as a full-spectrum commodity superpower.

The spot price for ammonia in Europe has risen sevenfold this year, deliberately pushed higher by a Kremlin ban on fertiliser exports that has no other purpose than causing maximum chaos and probably a global food shortage over the next year.

It is a strategic imperative to bring this crisis to a head immediately by raising the ante. A total energy embargo would buttress the military resistance of the Ukrainian armed forces and test whether it is even possible for Putin to continue prosecuting a bungled invasion.

As matters now stand, the sanctions have failed to achieve anything. It is Ukrainian resistance, and military kit provided by the Anglo-Saxon powers of NATO and frontline EU states, that have so far held the line. Core Europe has done little more than bleat on the margins.

The willingness of European nations to welcome refugees is marvellous but what is most needed is to confront the cause of this vast human convulsion.

Telegraph, London

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