Experts agree COVID restrictions should ease – but not just yet

No major changes should be made to Victoria’s COVID-19 restrictions for the next fortnight, leading epidemiologists say, as authorities wait to see how the return to school affects case numbers and hospitalisations.

The experts are optimistic that many of the remaining pandemic rules, including dance floor bans and hospitality density limits will soon not be required but predict key decisions are still some way off.

“I think we’ve just got a couple of weeks to see the bumpiness of work and school returning to make sure it’s not triggering anything that we can’t control,” said Professor Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University.

James Trauer, head of Monash University’s epidemiological modelling unit, agreed, saying health authorities should wait a couple of weeks before relaxing restrictions.

Associate Professor Trauer said the rules on face masks and vaccination mandates should be the last of the restrictions to be removed, but the requirement to use QR codes could be stopped immediately as they were not being used in contact tracing.

“Then have a plan to do things like getting dance floors and more people working on site, maybe in two to three weeks, provided the case numbers are not increasing as a consequence of progressively releasing restrictions,” he said.

Professor Bennett said the next couple of weeks would be crucial to decisions about lifting restrictions. She said that if the rate of people who had their booster shot increased and daily case numbers “settled” in that time, there would be an argument for the easing of hospitality density and other rules

“We just need to make sure [cases are] down to a level where the pressure is off the hospitals,” she said.

There were 768 people with COVID-19 in Victorian hospitals on Wednesday, down from a high of about 1200 last month. Ninety-nine people were in intensive care.

Epidemiologist Tony Blakely said Victoria was in a position to start easing back on some mandates soon. He pointed to Denmark, which has recently scrapped most of its pandemic restrictions, including mask mandates in most settings. A digital pass is no longer needed to visit nightclubs or restaurants.

Fewer than 30 COVID-19 patients are in Denmark’s intensive care units, despite the country reporting more than 50,000 daily cases in recent weeks.

But Professor Blakely cautioned that Victoria would not be returning to pre-pandemic lifestyle anytime soon.

“We’ll go back to sensible minimal restrictions,” he said. “Yes, we’ll have the MCG full, but you are still going to wear your mask when you go and get your food, when you go to the bathroom, when you are walking through the concourse … but when you’re sitting down, take them off,” he said.

The last weekend of the Australian Open brought crowds of 80 per cent capacity to Rod Laver Arena for the finals.

Forthcoming major sporting events in Melbourne expected to attract large crowds include soccer’s FFA Cup final at AAMI Park on Saturday and a T20 cricket international at the MCG between Australia and Sri Lanka on February 17.

Professor Blakely said he did not believe there would be much of a rise in cases caused by schools returning, but he nonetheless supported the short-term, precautionary approach whereby students were undergoing rapid tests twice a week.

He stressed that the state and federal governments needed to have plans to quickly add and lift restrictions in response to changing COVID-19 situations, including the possible arrival of a more dangerous variant in the future.

Victorian adults are still required to have two COVID-19 vaccine doses to visit a range of public venues, no one is allowed on indoor dance floors (except for weddings), there are major restrictions on elective surgery and masks are required at public indoor spaces for all those aged eight or over.

Melburnians wear face masks as they shop at the Queen Victoria Market.Credit: Getty Images

Hospitality venues are also bound by a density limit of one person per two square metres indoors.

The Age revealed this week that talks were under way between the state Health Department and private hospital providers on the possible resumption of elective surgery, with key medical groups holding opposing views on the matter.

Premier Daniel Andrews confirmed consultations were cautiously underway but said, “no one is rushing.”

“We think it is possible to resume some services in a staggered way, in a balanced and cautious way, and we’ll make further announcements about that soon,” Mr Andrews said.

Premier Daniel Andrews on Wednesday.Credit: Nine News

“We will get these surgeries back up and running as soon as possible.”

He would not be drawn on whether other rules – such as masks in hospitality venues or density limits – could be wound back now that the peak of Omicron cases had probably passed. But he pointed out similar restrictions were recently extended in NSW until at least the end of February.

“It’s always been my expectation … these rules won’t be on any longer than they need to be. We look forward to being able to ease those rules further.”

Epidemiologist Nancy Baxter said it would be better to wait until it was clearer how the return to school had affected case numbers before any calls were made on lifting restrictions.

Professor Baxter, the head of the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, said the decision to focus on getting children back to their education would be assisted by lower numbers of COVID-19 cases in the community and benefit the economy overall.

“I think it’d be much better to have people starting to return to restaurants, starting to do more things in the community, get the economic engine going as cases go down,” Professor Baxter said.

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