Biden tells Ukraine’s Zelensky a Russian invasion in February is ‘distinct possibility’

Washington: The White House says President Joe Biden warned Ukraine’s President on Friday AEDT that there is a “distinct possibility” Russia could take military action against Ukraine in February.

The Kremlin likewise sounded a grim note, saying it saw “little ground for optimism” in resolving the crisis after the US this week again rejected Russia’s main demands.

Ukrainian servicemen drawing water from a well near the front line wait for an invasion that US President Joe Biden thinks may come within weeks. Credit: AP

Russian officials said dialogue was still possible to end the crisis, but Biden again offered a stark warning amid growing concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin will give the go-ahead for a further invasion of Ukrainian territory in the not-so-distant future.

The White House said Biden’s comments to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky in a phone call amplified concerns that administration officials have been making for some time.

“President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February,” White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said. “He has said this publicly and we have been warning about this for months.”

Tensions have soared in recent weeks, as the United States and its NATO allies expressed concern that a buildup of about 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine signalled that Moscow planned to invade its ex-Soviet neighbour.

Russia denies having any such designs — and has laid out a series of demands it says will improve security in Europe.

All eyes are now on Putin, who will decide how Russia will respond amid fears that Europe could again be plunged into war.

Russia said earlier on Friday AEDT it was clear the United States was not willing to address its main security concerns in their standoff over Ukraine, but kept the door open for further dialogue.

The United States and NATO submitted a written response on Thursday AEDT to demands Russia has made for a redrawing of post-Cold War security arrangements in Europe since it massed troops near Ukraine, prompting Western fears of an invasion.

US President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office of the White House in September 2021.Credit: AP

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow needed time to review the response and would not rush to conclusions, but that US and NATO statements describing Russia’s main demands as unacceptable did not leave much room for optimism.

“Based on what our (U.S. and NATO) colleagues said yesterday, it’s absolutely clear that on the main categories outlined in those draft documents ... we cannot say that our thoughts have been taken into account or that a willingness has been shown to take our concerns into account,” he said. “But we won’t rush with our assessments.”

The nuanced Kremlin reaction made clear that Russia was not rejecting the US and NATO responses out of hand or closing the door to diplomacy.

The Russian foreign ministry said the best way to reduce tensions was for NATO to withdraw forces from eastern Europe, but also sought to quash fears of an invasion.

“We have already repeatedly stated that our country does not intend to attack anyone. We consider even the thought of a war between our people to be unacceptable,” said Alexei Zaitsev, a ministry spokesman.

Sovereign dollar bonds issued by Ukraine soared on Thursday, enjoying their best day in almost two years, while Russian debt also gained after the Kremlin’s response.

But, in a sign of lingering international concern, oil hit seven-year highs above $US90 a barrel, then eased later. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer and the crisis over Ukraine has fanned fears that energy supplies to Europe will be disrupted.

A Ukrainian presidential adviser told Reuters that Kyiv wants to borrow some $US5 billion from international organisations and in bilateral aid as borderline “hysteria” over the threat of a Russian attack was limiting its access to capital markets.

Diplomatic window

Russia’s security demands, presented in December, include an end to further NATO enlargement, barring Ukraine from ever joining and pulling back the alliance’s forces and weaponry from eastern European countries that joined after the Cold War.

The US and NATO responses were not made public, but both had already rejected those demands while expressing willingness to engage on issues such as arms control, confidence-building measures and limits on the size and scope of military exercises.

Turkey, a NATO member that has good ties with both Kyiv and Moscow, said it was important to keep talking. “All problems cannot be solved with a document, one or two meetings,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in Ankara.

China told the United States it wants all sides involved in Ukraine to remain calm.

“We call on all parties to stay calm and refrain from doing things that agitate tensions and hype up the crisis,” China’s Foreign Ministry quoted Foreign Minister Wang Yi as telling US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a telephone call.

On Friday, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen expressed “empathy” for Ukraine’s situation, drawing parallels with the threats the island faced from China.

In comments to a meeting of Taiwan’s National Security Council, Tsai said the Ukraine situation needed close attention.

“Taiwan has faced military threats and intimidation from China for a long time. Therefore, we empathise with Ukraine’s situation, and we also support the efforts of all parties to maintain regional security,” her office cited her as saying at the meeting.

Western countries have warned of economic sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine, building on measures imposed since 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and Russian-backed separatists began fighting the Kyiv government’s forces in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian, Russian, German and French diplomats discussed the conflict in eastern Ukraine in Paris on Wednesday and agreed more talks should be held in Berlin in two weeks.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the agreement on more talks meant Russia was likely to remain on a diplomatic track for at least two weeks.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there was hope of starting serious dialogue with the United States, but only on secondary questions, not on fundamental ones.

Nuclear crisis

In comments published on his ministry’s website, he said President Vladimir Putin would decide Russia’s next move.

People walk past Saint Sophia Cathedral at Sophia Square in Kyiv, Ukraine. Credit: Getty

Putin, who has not spoken publicly on the crisis for weeks, has warned of an unspecified “military-technical response” - something defence analysts say could relate to missile deployments - if Russia’s demands are ignored.

TASS news agency quoted a senior Russian foreign ministry official, Vladimir Ermakov, as saying a nuclear missile crisis between Moscow and Washington was unavoidable without measures to ensure restraint and predictability.

He said Moscow believed Washington was preparing to deploy short and intermediate range missiles to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

A couple enjoy warm weather on a bridge with St. Basil’s Cathedral, right, and an almost empty Red Square after sunset in Moscow, Russia.Credit: AP

Biden has said he will not send US or allied troops to fight Russia in Ukraine but NATO has said it is putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets.

Four F-16 fighter jets flew to Lithuania from Denmark on Thursday, and six US F-15 jets landed in nearby Estonia on Wednesday as NATO reinforced its eastern flank.

Separately, a national guard soldier in Ukraine opened fire on Thursday (AEDT) at a missile and rocket factory in the eastern part of the country, killing five people, police said.

There was no immediate sign that it was related to the military buildup in the region.

AP, Reuters

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