100 deaths in 90 days: New modelling reveals reopened Queensland

Queenslanders have been warned to expect 100 deaths within the first 90 days after the state reopens to interstate hot spots.

Modelling by the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute shows that with a vaccination target of 80 per cent, assuming no waning of immunity over time, there would be about 100 deaths within the first 90 days, particularly in the over-65s age group.

It is in stark contrast to the seven deaths Queensland has recorded since the pandemic began in early 2020.

The data comes as Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk warned people had 12 days to get vaccinated to be protected from COVID-19 before the state reopened its borders to travellers from hotspots without quarantine.

That deadline would allow Queenslanders to have received both doses of vaccine and time for immunity to develop, before the state reopened its borders in December.

The Queensland government on Monday released its roadmap to reopening, including lifting domestic travel restrictions when 70 and 80 per cent of eligible Queenslanders had been vaccinated.

“We have 12 days, Queensland, 12 days for people to come and get vaccinated if you want to be fully protected by the 17th of December,” Ms Palaszczuk said.

December 17 is the day borders were set to reopen to fully vaccinated travellers from hotspots without them being ordered into quarantine.

The 12-day deadline will be reached on October 31, there is a three-week gap between Pfizer doses or four weeks for Moderna, plus two weeks to reach full immunity, which comes to December 5 or 12 - and authorities have warned the December 17 deadline will be brought forward if the 80 per cent target is hit earlier.

The Premier said about 400,000 Queenslanders across the state were yet to be vaccinated.

Specialist modelling, commissioned by the Palaszczuk government, showed there could be about 100 new COVID infections each day in Queensland by January if the state reopened at an 80 per cent vaccination rate under a simulated outbreak, and about 1000 new daily cases by mid-2022.

Infections would be highest in the young and old.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announcing the state’s road map to reopening. Credit: Matt Dennien

The modelling showed ICU and hospital resources might come under “severe pressure” but not catastrophically before control measures could be introduced.

It assumed the only ongoing measures were testing, contact tracing, isolation of positive cases and quarantining contacts, but did not include localised lockdowns.

At 80 per cent, expected by December 17, no quarantine would be required for arrivals and travellers from hotspots could arrive by road or air. People must be fully vaccinated and have a negative COVID test in the previous 72 hours.

Borders will be reopened on December 17 even if that 80 per cent target is not met.

The Premier said masks would not be needed at an 80 per cent vaccination rate, but could be reintroduced during localised outbreaks if the area did not have 80 per cent of residents vaccinated.

The state posted no new local coronavirus cases on Tuesday.

Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young warned people to get vaccinated quickly.

“Every single Queenslander is going to get exposed to the COVID-19 virus and will get infected but if you’re vaccinated, that’s not a problem,” she said.

Health Minister Yvette D’Ath said after December 17, some businesses with all staff fully vaccinated might be able to operate with no restrictions if they chose to only allow in fully vaccinated patrons, including operating without capacity limits and masks, but details were still being worked out.

Ms D’Ath said the contact tracing app would still be mandatory as authorities would still need to test, trace and isolate infected cases.

Ms Palaszczuk said venues, including pubs, restaurants or stadiums, could bar entry to unvaccinated patrons.

LNP leader David Crisafulli called for the government to release the full roadmap.

“The state government has released a border plan, however, we still don’t know what life will look like when the border opens,” he said.

Cabinet ministers launched a regional blitz on Tuesday, with ministers Di Farmer, Mark Furner, Ms D’Ath, Grace Grace, Steven Miles, Stirling Hinchliffe, Mick de Brenni and Glenn Butcher joining the Premier in holding press conferences across the state.

In Queensland, 72.47 per cent of people aged over 16 have received their first dose, while 56.9 per cent are fully vaccinated.