Incentivise will have to be a horse out of history to win Melbourne Cup

Runaway Caulfield Cup winner Incentivise will need to make history if he is to win the Melbourne Cup after he was slugged with a 1.5-kilogram penalty for the race by chief handicapper Greg Carpenter.

The extra impost – earned as a result of the comprehensive demolition of his rivals in the 2400-metre Caulfield classic – means he will have to carry 57 kilograms in Australia’s greatest race.

Incentivise has been given a 1.5-kilogram penalty for the Melbourne Cup.Credit: Getty Images

Only the nonpareil, Makybe Diva, has carried more in the past 44 years, since Gold And Black won for the Cups king Bart Cummings back in 1977, when he too carried 57 kilograms.

Makybe Diva shouldered 58 when she became a legend, taking out her third and final Cup in 2005.

Incentivise, who has now won nine races in a row, the last three of them at group 1 level, has made what Carpenter described as “astonishing” progress since breaking his duck in a Sunshine Coast maiden just over six months ago.

Few would argue with that analysis after successive wins in the Makybe Diva Stakes, the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup, and his racing weight of 57 at Flemington still leaves him one kilogram below the race’s top weight, last year’s winner Twilight Payment.

With a win on the first Tuesday in November, Incentivise would become only the 12th galloper to complete the big cups double.

Carpenter admitted that the visual evidence of Incentivise’s Caulfield Cup win under 55.5 kilograms – from the widest barrier, conceding weight to his 17 rivals and on a soft track – might suggest he had been somewhat generous in his penalty.

But the man who set the weights also had plenty of historical precedents to rely on, and that also guided him in his judgment.

He pointed out that since Ethereal did the cups double in 2001, 14 Caulfield Cup winners have tried to replicate her feat under a penalty and not one has finished in the top three.

Since Gold And Black’s triumph for Cummings back in 1977, Carpenter explained that 68 horses had run in the Cup carrying 57 kilograms or more and only Makybe Diva has managed to triumph.

Further historical precedents illustrate what a task Incentivise has been set as the last horse to do the cups double carrying 57 or more in the Melbourne Cup was the outstanding champion of the 1950s, Rising Fast, who won both and the Cox Plate in 1954.

“It’s a big challenge, but we are comfortable that the 1.5 kilos taking him to 57 is the right assessment,” Carpenter said.

While some will believe the penalty is too light, Carpenter pointed out that the purpose of the extra weight was not to deny Incentivise a chance but to give those he beat at Caulfield the opportunity to at least get close, if not beat him.

“If you look at the 11 horses who have done the double there’s only one horse who has actually carried 57 or more to win the Melbourne Cup, and that was Rising Fast.

“Galilee was one of the great champions and he had 56.5; Might and Power (who had broken the track record and won the Caulfield Cup by seven lengths with 52.5 on his back and then received a 3.5-kilogram penalty) carried 56.”

Carpenter said he had spoken to Peter Moody, Incentivise’s trainer, and he had been happy enough with the allocation.

“Peter felt that he was very fairly treated, it was around the mark that he had expected. He understands the challenge between Saturday just gone and the Melbourne Cup is a very different one.”

He added: “I think there’s no doubt he will be running. As long as the horse is fit and well and healthy on the day, he will take up the challenge.

“The purpose of the penalty is not to stop him from winning, it’s to allow the horses from Caulfield on Saturday some weight relief so they can be more competitive.”

Incentivise has brushed away the best local stayers with disdain, so it will be fascinating to see how he meets the challenge of not just Twilight Payment but Spanish Mission, who has close form links with the high-class former European champion stayer Stradivarius, Gold Trip, who ran fourth in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Away He Goes, who ran second to current British staying star Trueshan in the Goodwood Cup in July.

All four remain in contention for the Cup for which there are still two more ballot exemption races to come: the Cox Plate (2040 metres) at The Valley this Saturday and the group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500 metres) at Flemington on Derby Day.

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