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Explaining the Brownlow’s great mystery: vote inflation

By Jake Niall

Within the Perth epicentre of a second multi-venue Brownlow Medal count, the dominant topic wasn’t Ben Cousins and his date, Nat Fyfe’s hairdo, the choice of Shai Bolton as mark of the year or even the story of the winner, Ollie Wines.

No, the major talking point was the enormous vote tallies garnered by the top contenders, especially the first four.

Wines (36), Marcus Bontempelli (33), Clayton Oliver (31) and Carlton’s wunderkind Sam Walsh (30) each broke the 30-vote barrier, more than enough to win the overwhelming majority of Brownlows in the past.

Ollie Wines of Port Adelaide poses after winning the 2021 Brownlow Medal.

Ollie Wines of Port Adelaide poses after winning the 2021 Brownlow Medal. Credit: Getty Images

Consider, too, that Jarryd Lyons polled more votes (23) than Brisbane’s greatest player Michael Voss (21) when the champion shared the Brownlow with James Hird in 1996. Gavin Wanganeen won the 1993 Brownlow with 18 votes - exactly half of Wines’ number, which matched the record set by Dustin Martin in 2017.

Wanganeen’s 18 wouldn’t place him in the top dozen at the 2021 count, while Darcy Parish polled 26 (equal fifth) in his first season of gaining full midfield minutes at Essendon. Cousins polled 20 to take his medal in 2005.

The vote inflation for these midfielders also baffled many inside the Perth chapter of the count and posed a question: Why are the players high on the leaderboard getting so much love from the umpires? Why are they receiving so many votes? Luke Dunstan scored 11 from 12 games and has not been offered a contract at the Saints.

Given the spread of players in the midfield - the Dogs and Demons are both loaded with stars in their midfield rotation - how did the medal become so owned by the premier one or two mids at half the clubs?

Various theories were put forth by club and AFL people after the count ended.

One was that the umpires, no matter how hard they try, are influenced by media and react accordingly when a player - always a midfielder - has a hot period of form. The umps, according to this thesis, become more aware of the fashionably in-form player.

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But, as former umpiring coach and leading umpire Hayden Kennedy noted, the umpires handed votes (2) to a Swans debutant, Errol Gulden, in round one - they can hardly have been swayed by publicity then. “Unless it’s at a subconscious level, that wouldn’t be the case.”

Kennedy saw another potential factor that could contribute to these astonishing vote tallies: the amount of time that the best midfielders are spending on the ball, their share increased as the interchange rotations have been cut to 75.

“I think it’s as simple as that these players are spending more time around the ball. Therefore, they can impact more on the play.”

The most persuasive theory, however, for the vote inflation at the top came from Gold Coast’s new football chief and ex-head of AFL umpiring Wayne Campbell, who - as a prime Richmond midfielder in his day - had to cope with taggers regularly.

“Back in the day, the best midfielders used to get tagged,” explained Campbell, citing the example of Greg “Diesel” Williams, an inside mid-nonpareil of the ’80s and ’90s. Williams would be tagged to the point that he’d be restricted in say five of his 22 games.

“Matt de Boer is a rarity,” Campbell said of the Giants’ tagger. “Every team used to have one. Now it’s very rare. So midfielders are getting it 32 times.” Possession numbers, too, are vastly increased from the days of Diesel, who relied on his own pugilistic skills to fend off taggers such as Sean Denham.

Walsh is a case in point. He was tagged by de Boer in round 14 and did not poll in that game. In the subsequent four games, he garnered 3, 2, 3 and 3 votes.

In round 19, Jy Simpkin shadowed Walsh - no votes - but he scored another three when playing the tag-averse Saints the following week.

Kennedy said that, as has been evident for years, the Brownlow voting reflects the media awards, in both the top pollers and the hegemony of midfielders, with key forwards no longer kicking anywhere near the same annual returns of the past (70 goals is the new 100).

Another question is that of statistical influence and whether the umpires - all four, counting the emergency, have an agreed 3-2-1 - are swayed by Champion Data.

Kennedy said that umpires do not get the stats - and are barred from looking on their mobile phones.

They can, however, look up at the scoreboard and apparently do so at quarter and half-time breaks.

Whether it’s share of midfield minutes, or the demise of taggers, the concentration of votes in the hands of the few is a topic for the game’s new football operations people, particularly former North colleagues Brad Scott and Laura Kane, to ponder.


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Original URL: https://www.theage.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p58t8s