Australia must prepare for 'catastrophic' natural disasters amid rising threat from climate change

Australia must prepare for catastrophic natural disasters by creating stronger peak agencies, better warning systems and faster military deployments to act on royal commission findings that include a stark warning about the rising threat from climate change.

The royal commission into natural disasters calls for new laws to allow the federal government to declare a national emergency and overcome the "confusion" that arose last summer in the use of the Australian Defence Force to rescue bushfire victims.

The report into the 2019-20 Black Summer fires, which left 33 dead and thousands homeless, found the cost of the crisis ran to billions of dollars.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

After eight months of inquiry, the commission on Friday issued dozens of recommendations such as a call for an expanded aerial firefighting fleet to fill a shortage of aircraft because fire seasons have grown longer in Australia and overseas.

The report into the 2019-20 Black Summer fires, which left 33 dead and thousands homeless, found the cost of the crisis ran to billions of dollars and estimated there were hundreds of deaths from the thick smoke that choked many cities and towns.

While the report stopped short of calling for action on greenhouse gas emissions, it warned of more disasters as climate change grew worse.

"Australia needs to be better prepared for these natural disasters. They may not happen every year, but when they happen, they can be catastrophic," it said.

"The summer of 2019-2020 – in which some communities experienced drought, heatwaves, bushfires, hailstorms and flooding – provided only a glimpse of the types of events that Australia may face in the future."

The royal commission, led by former Air Chief Marshall Mark Binskin, said governments should act to make the country more resilient by taking new steps on energy and the environment as well as land-use planning, infrastructure, agriculture, infrastructure and emergency management.

"Extreme weather has already become more frequent and intense because of climate change," it said. "Further global warming over the next 20 to 30 years is inevitable.

"Globally, temperatures will continue to rise, and Australia will have more hot days and fewer cool days. Sea levels are also projected to continue to rise. Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in number, but increase in intensity. Floods and bushfires are expected to become more frequent and more intense.

"Catastrophic fire conditions may render traditional bushfire prediction models and firefighting techniques less effective."

The commission cited scientific conclusions that Australia had warmed by about 1.4 degrees Celsius since 1910, with last year being the country's hottest year on record.

That finding drew praise from Labor, the Greens, the Investor Group on Climate Change, the Australian Conservation Foundation and former fire authority chiefs who called for stronger government action at the height of the crisis last summer.

"Climate change drove the Black Summer bushfires, and climate change is pushing us into a future of unprecedented bushfire severity," said Greg Mullins, founder of the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action and former commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW.

Mr Mullins said the findings should mean no new coal or gas projects, but the federal government responded by restating its policy to reduce emissions by 26 per cent by 2030 on 2005 levels.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison set up the commission in February after a political storm over his response to the bushfires, amid claims he responded too slowly while on holiday in Hawaii before Christmas.

But the report said state and local governments had to take primary responsibility for disasters and could not expect federal authorities to "take over" the response when local authorities were closer to events.

On the role of hazard reduction in preventing fires, the commission acknowledged the "polarising" debate but did not take sides in the fierce dispute over whether environmental protections stopped burns that might have prevented last summer's fires.

Instead, it said authorities should improve "the public's knowledge and understanding" of fuel management.

The report made no criticism of political leaders or emergency authorities but identified problems in co-ordinating the emergency response between federal, state, territory and local authorities.

"We note that in some states there was an apparent reluctance to seek ADF assistance, or delay in seeking assistance," it found. "The reluctance or delay may have been due, at least in part, to the apparent confusion on the thresholds for request."

Mr Morrison deployed the ADF on January 4 at a time when Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews was seeking military assistance to evacuate trapped fire victims at coastal towns including Mallacoota, while NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian was not seeking similar aid.

The royal commission found the use of the ADF should remain dependent on a request from a state or territory except in "limited circumstances" when the federal government declared a national emergency.

While Mr Morrison committed $20 million to new water-bombing aircraft on January 4, the commission found a shortage of aircraft held back fire authorities. This masthead revealed on January 3 the federal government had rejected a 2016 proposal from the nation's aerial firefighting centre to create a "national large air-tanker" fleet.

Key recommendations

• Create a national waterbombing fleet
• Establish a national resilience and recovery body
• Improve understanding about fuel management and hazard reduction burns
• Create the power for the federal government to call a national emergency
• Urgently deliver a new Australian warning system for all disasters

The commission's report recommended a "sovereign aerial firefighting capability" to share resources across the states and territories, including more air tankers.

While states already have air tankers and helicopters, the royal commission found these were not shared at some points over the 2019-20 bushfire because of the intensity and length of the crisis.

"The limited availability of aerial firefighting resources sometimes resulted in jurisdictions being unable to satisfy operational demands," it said. "The increasing duration of fire seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres, and the increasing duration and severity of fire seasons in Australia, will make it increasingly difficult to share aircraft domestically."

The key recommendation was to create a "modest" fleet based in Australia and funded by federal and state governments, while continuing to use aircraft from overseas when possible.

The commission called on governments to "restructure and reinvigorate" their ministerial forums to improve decisions on long-term disaster preparations as well as immediate responses to threats, and said this could be done through the national cabinet.

But it also said the country needed an "authoritative disaster advisory body" to consolidate advice and improve co-ordination between governments.

The commission heard emergency warning systems conveyed 492,938 messages on the fixed-line phone network and 4.2 million messages to mobile phones during the crisis, but said a better system was needed.

"State and territory governments should urgently deliver and implement the all-hazard Australian warning system (AWS)," the report said.

It found states and territories were "slowly progressing" the AWS since the need for a national system was recognised in 2004, and said the new system should apply to bushfire, flood, severe storms, cyclones and extreme heat.

The report noted the way state alert systems, ABC radio and social media helped keep people informed of the fire threat last summer, but said there were "cross-border anomalies" in areas where people were not within range of ABC radio stations.

While it noted the good use of applications like "Fires Near Me" in NSW and "VicEmergency" in Victoria, it called for a national app or at least the use of national standards.

The royal commission hailed the work of thousands of volunteers and acknowledged the financial pressures on many who took time out of work to fight fires and help bushfire victims last summer, but did not propose a full-time payment system.

"We recognise that direct payment does not align with the values of volunteerism," it said.

It said state and territory governments should help employers so they could release staff to serve as volunteers.

Emergency Management Minister David Littleproud noted the states already had water-bombing aircraft and co-ordinated this through the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC).

Mr Littleproud said he would be taking advice and speaking to state governments on how to act on the commission's findings.

"We will now need to work with the states to make sure the mechanism around that is done," he said at a press conference on Friday.

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